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Old 06-09-2019, 02:59 PM   #1
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2019 Inventory

Rv trader reveals the below new model availability. Is it realistic that dealers can unload most of these remaining units prior to the arrival of the 2020s?

269 Dutch Stars
195 Ventana
97 Ventana LE
87 New Aire

These numbers should equate to substantial discounts. Hopefully not ominpus signs of an industry slow down.
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Old 06-09-2019, 03:33 PM   #2
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FWIW-RV sales in Canada since 1\1\19 are off 53%. RV sales USA are off about 11% same time frame. For histories sake, sales started to go down in 2005, the crash happened in 2008, based on that 3 year window. Some Financial Guru's are saying 30% of all auto loans currently are underwater, and some of the big banks are ratcheting up their cash positions as Credit Card defaults are increasing.

Believe personally, I would also check 2018 New Inventory, bet some of that is still around too. Once 2020's are out, 18/19 will take a considerable hit in price. If downturn is approaching, some dealers will sell below costs to clear inventory, and get square with float from bank, may be required to clear inventory to get clear with bank.

If you are thinking of purchase, iron out what you want coach to have on it now, what you are willing to fudge on, and go shopping, take time, negotiate hard, and I would wager you can get a great deal on new one to your liking. Do your homework first, length, model, options, etc., then look at dealer inventory on line, on interested ones, you then can call. New ones (2020) are not supposed to be out till Aug, but some dealers already have them from the big Show in Tampa earlier this year.

I would be interested in what you find and how you approach this. Now you have my curiosity up. Found 3 of which 2 were sold. Did not look deep.

Here is one:
https://www.rvtrader.com/listing/201...407-5000785433
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Old 06-09-2019, 04:51 PM   #3
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I think they will sell them out. There only 5 Dutch Stars, 4 Ventanas, 2 Ventana LE's and 1.5 New Aires left per state. Think about that, if you're RV Trader numbers are correct, I think many will have to wait until the 2020's come out to get a coach. If someone wants a New Aire, there is only one left in their state.

There's no need for the dealers to mark down the coaches. They may even mark them up if they have the only available inventory. They can sit on 25% - 28% off all day long, which is the typical mark down.

When the 2020's come out, they don't arrive all at once. They're scheduled and bought by the dealers for delivery throughout the year. So there will still be a demand.
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Old 06-09-2019, 05:14 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutch Star Don View Post
I think they will sell them out. There only 5 Dutch Stars, 4 Ventanas, 2 Ventana LE's and 1.5 New Aires left per state. Think about that, if you're RV Trader numbers are correct, I think many will have to wait until the 2020's come out to get a coach. If someone wants a New Aire, there is only one left in their state.

There's no need for the dealers to mark down the coaches. They may even mark them up if they have the only available inventory. They can sit on 25% - 28% off all day long, which is the typical mark down.

When the 2020's come out, they don't arrive all at once. They're scheduled and bought by the dealers for delivery throughout the year. So there will still be a demand.
I like DSDon's analysis. Thus far, the economy remains reasonably strong despite the ups and downs of the stock market. And, as DSD points out, it is not like the entire 2020 inventory gets dropped into the marketplace at one time.

I do think there may be a little bit more negotiating room on the '19s because Newmar will provide some dealer incentive money for a while. That doesn't mean there will be huge additional discounts, but maybe 3-5% more until fall.

TJ
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Old 06-09-2019, 07:01 PM   #5
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The baby boomers are in full retirement mode. New sales will continue and those that prefer a gently used coach will find a great selection too. The buyer who has to float a large loan will be the most reluctant to purchase.
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Old 06-10-2019, 10:52 AM   #6
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https://www.jlwranglerforums.com/for...-report.30967/

According to this YTD sales are down compared to last year. Is this true in RV industry, people who follow that say yes.
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Old 06-10-2019, 10:57 AM   #7
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Exclamation 2019 Inventory

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulTNaples View Post
The baby boomers are in full retirement mode. New sales will continue and those that prefer a gently used coach will find a great selection too. The buyer who has to float a large loan will be the most reluctant to purchase.
FWIW, SSI just released the following, Class A motorhome sales were down 13.4% through April...... Hopefully the responders are correct, that demand will meet or exceed supply.
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Old 06-10-2019, 02:28 PM   #8
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2019 Inventory

Demand is cyclical and we are definitely on the downside of this cycle. However, dealers have scaled back orders drastically from last year when Newmar oversold production for the year at the yearly dealer meeting but coaches are still being sold and dealers are making moves to adjust their inventory to the lower but still substantial demand. The deals will be better as factory incentives kick in and overloaded dealers want to move coaches. But all of that has to be balanced against buying a year old coach that has already incurred first year depreciation and does not have the added features of a new model. Cheaper may not always equate to a better deal in the long term. All JMHO
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Old 06-10-2019, 05:18 PM   #9
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According to my Canadian friends, buying a new RV now doesn't make sense with the current exchange rate. I am sure that has an impact on sales to some degree.
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Old 06-10-2019, 05:51 PM   #10
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According to my Canadian friends, buying a new RV now doesn't make sense with the current exchange rate. I am sure that has an impact on sales to some degree.
As a Canadian who just took delivery. Who knows when the exchange rate will get closer to par? 2 years? 5 years? Never?

Buy what you can and try to match that with what you want.

Who knows how many years I or you have left.
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Old 06-11-2019, 08:56 AM   #11
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What dealer did you use to purchase your motorhome? We are from Ottawa and are looking at ordering a 2020 New Aire 35. Our experience so far with both Ontario and Quebec dealers is that they come nowhere near the discounts rates offered in the states.
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