Most dealers will only use the NADA guide when it is to their advantage. A lot of experienced buyers for the dealer will use a Black Book. That is the price the unit trades for at auction. No real crystal ball for the answer. Condition, color, size, brand all play into a dealers decision in what to put into that unit. Also, is it being traded in on a unit that has been on the floor plan too long and needs to move. Does a saleman have a buyer just waiting for that type of unit. Last, how is the business doing, if it has had a gang buster month they are not going to deal. If it has been slow, they will do anything to get your business. As long as you are happy, that is all that counts. I was a dealer for over 10 years.