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Old 04-30-2019, 11:29 AM   #15
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Just repeating what everyone has already said... way too many variables to predict the future. However, it's pretty much a standard rule of thumb that the biggest hit happens during years 2-3 from new. I bought my 2015 Ram in late 2017 for $27k with 28k miles. Sticker on the truck was $48k. Original owner likely didn't pay sticker of course but that's still a big drop in 2-3 years even though the truck had hardly been used in the big picture.

I always buy 2-3 year old vehicles with low miles. Makes the most sense for me with value compared to buying new. There are tradeoffs buying used but I'm not terribly picky about exact option packages etc. I also drive my vehicles until late into their lives so depreciation doesn't mean much. By the time I'm done with a vehicle it's pretty worn out. lol.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:47 PM   #16
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New diesel HD trucks are not like most cars; at least my last three new GM trucks have not been. They hold their value extremely well if you take care of them and buy when there are factory incentives to clear stock to make way for the incoming model year trucks. They are a ridiculously good value compared to, say, gas luxury sedans or SUVs, which can easily lose 50% value in three years (as long as you don't get suckered into paying close to full MSRP for your new truck). My 2016 Denali HD has a KBB trade value right now of about $5k-6k south of what I paid for it about three years ago.
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Old 04-30-2019, 09:21 PM   #17
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I agree with the depreciation of diesel trucks is less than just about any other vehicle. They probably depreciate the 1st 3 years then kinda flatline with slow depreciation after that.

I will be watching the prices of the 2020/2021 Ford 7.3 trucks closely along with the GM 6.6 gasoline powered trucks.
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Old 05-01-2019, 01:54 AM   #18
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As mentioned, way too many factors, particularly with a new platform and new engine, just look at F250's from the early 2000's, ones with the 7.3 diesels hold their value, ones with the 6.0 which came out mid 2004, you can't hardly give away. Fuel costs are another big factor, I have a 2000 F250 with 7.3 diesel that I use for hauling stuff on the weekends, I bought it in the summer of 2009 when diesel prices were bumping up against $5 per gallon and no one wanted a diesel. I paid $6,500 for it from a local Ford dealer, and today 10 years later it is probably still worth $5,000 or so (a quick search on Car Gurus showed one for sale 90 miles away with a private party asking price of $6,000, as well as one on a dealer lot 130 miles away with 90,000 more miles than mine for $8,000).
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Old 05-03-2019, 03:08 PM   #19
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With the nose bleed cost of the new trucks the percent of depreciation represents more $$$. Say 10% depreciation on a 85k truck is $8,500. Where the same depreciation on a 60k truck is $6,000.

Just thinking in the future there will be some really great used trucks on the market.
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Old 05-03-2019, 05:12 PM   #20
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With the nose bleed cost of the new trucks the percent of depreciation represents more $$$. Say 10% depreciation on a 85k truck is $8,500. Where the same depreciation on a 60k truck is $6,000.

Just thinking in the future there will be some really great used trucks on the market.
I look at RV's the same way. As much as I'd like a 40' 5th wheel @100K, I cringe at the thought that in 5 years it's only worth $50-60K. Thats a $40-50K loss.
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Old 05-03-2019, 06:10 PM   #21
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I agree 100%. An RV in 5 years is 50% of original MSRP. IMHO is still has 75% life in it so a 5 year old RV is the best bang for the buck.

Probably the same for trucks.

I am thinking my next rig a will be a 3 -5 year old truck and a 3 -5 year old RV.
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Old 05-03-2019, 06:17 PM   #22
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I agree 100%. An RV in 5 years is 50% of original MSRP. IMHO is still has 75% life in it so a 5 year old RV is the best bang for the buck.

Probably the same for trucks.

I am thinking my next rig a will be a 3 -5 year old truck and a 3 -5 year old RV.
Trucks have gone the way of RVs

Sky high MSRP that no one ever pays.

When I was shopping for a truck almost two years ago I wanted a 1 to 2 possibly 3 year old truck so someone else would pay the depreciation. As it turned out a 1 year old truck with 10k miles on it was as much or more than I could get a new one from a dealer. A 2 year old truck with 20k on it was only 3 or 4k less than a new one.

I ended up buying a 2018 in September of 2017 for 11k off of MSRP.

It was from Dave Smith Motors in Kellogg Id.
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Old 05-03-2019, 06:58 PM   #23
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Trucks have gone the way of RVs

Sky high MSRP that no one ever pays.

When I was shopping for a truck almost two years ago I wanted a 1 to 2 possibly 3 year old truck so someone else would pay the depreciation. As it turned out a 1 year old truck with 10k miles on it was as much or more than I could get a new one from a dealer. A 2 year old truck with 20k on it was only 3 or 4k less than a new one.

I ended up buying a 2018 in September of 2017 for 11k off of MSRP.

It was from Dave Smith Motors in Kellogg Id.
I bought my 2011 in 2013 for less than 1/2 MSRP, it was pristine too. It was worth the 3 day trek to fly to Texas and drive it back too. I hope I'll get as lucky when I replace it.
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Old 05-04-2019, 05:00 PM   #24
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I agree with Cumminsfan and Dropthejacks. Life is too short for such worries and more bacon is a good thing. I've owned the vehicle in my signature for a while, paid a lot of money for it but it had low miles/hours and had been treated very well, and local dealer friend apparently has standing order for such a vehicle and told me he'd make me whole and happy on it if I ever decided to trade it with him. Unfortunately for him I'm not in the mood to get rid of what is arguably one of the best towing trucks I have ever owned. Once I had it deleted it just got better. I love the truck so much I will take the long way to work every chance I get.
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Old 05-04-2019, 05:58 PM   #25
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I figure if I buy a new 3500 dually CC diesel truck, use it for 5 years until warranty runs out on drivetrain, then trade it for another one just like it for less than 20k I'm doing good. That amounts to about 4k a year or less, if I was willing to sell instead of trade I would do better but then I have to go through the selling process, much easier to trade.
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Old 05-04-2019, 06:15 PM   #26
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An accountant can give you more precise #s if this is for tax purposes.

An accountant will tell you 100% in first year because you'll want to avail yourself of the Section 179 deduction which allows you to deduct the whole purchase price in the year it is placed in service. However this part of the tax law has absolutely nothing to do with the real world.



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Old 05-05-2019, 02:25 PM   #27
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I personally like the reverse depreciation on my 70 stepside Chevy C-10. Paid $1,200 and change when she was near new, put about $9k in to restore her and been offered $20K but $20k won't cut it.
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Old 05-05-2019, 03:28 PM   #28
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I tracked it until the depreciable value was less than cash value. Took about two minutes of tracking. Then I quit tracking. It’s mine. I own it. I drive it. Consider it my terminal truck. Scary to read it in print.
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