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Old 04-28-2019, 12:25 PM   #1
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Has anyone tracked truck depreciation?

I am just wondering in case I want to buy a 2020 F-250 with the 7.3 gas engine say in 2022. Give it couple years to see reported problems and if much better than my current truck trade used for used.

Diesel depreciation and gasoline engine truck depreciation.

Thanks
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Old 04-28-2019, 01:18 PM   #2
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That is the million dollar question. Unknowable with an All new truck and an all new engine.

It can only be calculated with carry-over designs that have a reasonable amount of life data to be studied.
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Old 04-28-2019, 01:31 PM   #3
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That is the million dollar question. Unknowable with an All new truck and an all new engine.

It can only be calculated with carry-over designs that have a reasonable amount of life data to be studied.
Yes

Maybe 10 to 20 percent for very low miles of non commercial ussage. ???
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Old 04-28-2019, 01:58 PM   #4
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I am just wondering in case I want to buy a 2020 F-250 with the 7.3 gas engine say in 2022. Give it couple years to see reported problems and if much better than my current truck trade used for used.

Diesel depreciation and gasoline engine truck depreciation.

Thanks
There Are MANY, MANY, variables at play in this calculation. Some are not even heard of.
One of which is Fuel cost.
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Old 04-28-2019, 02:25 PM   #5
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I am just wondering in case I want to buy a 2020 F-250 with the 7.3 gas engine say in 2022. Give it couple years to see reported problems and if much better than my current truck trade used for used.

Diesel depreciation and gasoline engine truck depreciation.

Thanks
That's asking a LOT. As mentioned, there are MANY variables and some of those variables change monthly. fuel cost of each is a major thing.

As a general rule diesels tend to keep better value, the big V8 and I-6 diesels, I doubt any 4 cyl diesel will hold as much for resale.

From black book values here my old dually is doing a great job retaining value so far. I think all you need to do is get a desirable truck with a desirable engine/trans combo, keep it clean and in good order and that's about the best you can hope for.

FWIW my truck seems to have depreciated barely 30% in the 6 years I've owned it but I did strike a good deal on purchase.
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Old 04-28-2019, 03:53 PM   #6
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I was thinking for sure some one could tell me approx. the rough depreciation. My 2012 Dually F-450 depreciated $20,000 in 6.5 years. I will just use that as my future estimate. Roughly $3,100/year.

Does this make sense for most trucks?
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Old 04-28-2019, 04:12 PM   #7
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I was thinking for sure some one could tell me approx. the rough depreciation. My 2012 Dually F-450 depreciated $20,000 in 6.5 years. I will just use that as my future estimate. Roughly $3,100/year.

Does this make sense for most trucks?
Driving the new truck off the lot and you already lost 20 to 30% of its value. Depreciation is not a linear thing.

Take the price of the truck and divide by 15 (years...life expectancy). At 1/2 life or 7 to 8 years it should be worth 1/2 of new price if you're lucky then subtract some 20% for the initial depreciation. That's a real rough guesstimate if you need one. An accountant can give you more precise #s if this is for tax purposes.
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Old 04-28-2019, 08:16 PM   #8
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My 2012 Dually F-450 KR had a MSRP of $69,230. I bought the truck for $60,000. I traded it in for $40,000.

So is the 'driving it off the lot' depreciation starting at the MSRP or the purchase price? I think I only lost 8% driving it off the lot.

Tuesday I will have time to stop at my local Ford dealer to check on used prices. I know there is about $3,000 to $5,000 of wiggle room in the asking price.
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Old 04-28-2019, 08:23 PM   #9
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I think one of those variables is when you trade. Depreciation as pointed our earlier is not linear, so when you trade it in is also a determining factor. Depreciation is large, then tapers off creating a curve. When you trade on that curve is the unknown.

Good luck.
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Old 04-28-2019, 09:25 PM   #10
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What difference does it make? If you want it buy it. Life's too short to worry about small details.
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Old 04-28-2019, 10:17 PM   #11
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What difference does it make? If you want it buy it. Life's too short to worry about small details.

I agree with Cumminsfan (as I often do). This question is not really worth pondering over for more than a few seconds. A more realistic issue worthy of thought would be something like, "Should I add one more piece of bacon to my smashburger?" In this I think we can all agree, the answer is a resonating "Yes".
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Old 04-29-2019, 10:32 AM   #12
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I was thinking for sure some one could tell me approx. the rough depreciation. My 2012 Dually F-450 depreciated $20,000 in 6.5 years. I will just use that as my future estimate. Roughly $3,100/year.

Does this make sense for most trucks?
FWIW I bought my 12 Ram 2500 4x4 CC LB CTD ST for $36K in 2012.
A year ago I traded it in on an 18 Ram 2500 CC LB 4x4 6.4.
I got 28K for the Ram.
Thats $1,000 per year depreciation. I also got a little under $8K off the 2018.

$3100 a year seems excessive to me. But it also depends on the original purchase price. I got $10K off MSRP on the 2012.
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Old 04-29-2019, 10:47 AM   #13
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Aside from the unknown mechanical aspect there is other forces that are impossible to predict 3 or 4 years down the road.

Like economics. The cost of loans. What will the interest rates be for new trucks in 2022 vs used? What will be the availability of loans for used as opposed to new? After the big crash in 08 loans were very difficult to get especially on used items. A large point spread and larger required down might just make a 3 year old used truck less desirable.

When I was shopping for my '18 ram a two year old truck was not discounted enough to make sense in buying used.
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Old 04-29-2019, 12:26 PM   #14
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What difference does it make? If you want it buy it. Life's too short to worry about small details.
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I agree with Cumminsfan (as I often do). This question is not really worth pondering over for more than a few seconds. A more realistic issue worthy of thought would be something like, "Should I add one more piece of bacon to my smashburger?" In this I think we can all agree, the answer is a resonating "Yes".
I drive everything with four or more wheels into the ground. My pickup lost almost all its value as soon as I signed the purchase and sale agreement. I put a half million miles on a '96 Ford Explorer, then sold it and last I knew it went another 150K before it was sold again. Before that I got my grandmother's MBZ 300D with 600K miles, did a little work on it, drove it another 250K, and when I moved I gave it to my neighbor for him to tinker with. I love doing this. I feel like I'm squeezing every dollar from the machine and keeping them running.

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