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Old 01-19-2013, 08:24 PM   #29
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Well, they are obviously going to act in ways that maintain or improve the value of the RV division until it can be sold for a profit. So continued quality improvements, bolstering customer service and product development would be expected. If they were planning liquidation, their actions would be entirely different.

I think their business plan was that they had a healthy truck business with a promising engine under development that could carry an RV business (bought on the cheap) until it could be turned around. With their truck business faltering, they need to concentrate on turning that around. Since they are primarily a truck business, they will sacrifice the RV business without much anguish over it.

Question is, who would buy their RV business? They are selling a product that has a shrinking customer base and is somewhat out of step with the marketplace. The other manufacturers can expand their current product lines for alot less money than buying another manufacturer. But most all the manufacturers have unused capacity as we speak.

I think the writing is on the wall. Monaco is going the way of the dodo. Navistar may well not escape bankruptcy either, as their competitors are in a lot better shape.
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Old 01-19-2013, 10:17 PM   #30
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Well, they are obviously going to act in ways that maintain or improve the value of the RV division until it can be sold for a profit. So continued quality improvements, bolstering customer service and product development would be expected. If they were planning liquidation, their actions would be entirely different.

I think their business plan was that they had a healthy truck business with a promising engine under development that could carry an RV business (bought on the cheap) until it could be turned around. With their truck business faltering, they need to concentrate on turning that around. Since they are primarily a truck business, they will sacrifice the RV business without much anguish over it.

Question is, who would buy their RV business? They are selling a product that has a shrinking customer base and is somewhat out of step with the marketplace. The other manufacturers can expand their current product lines for alot less money than buying another manufacturer. But most all the manufacturers have unused capacity as we speak.

I think the writing is on the wall. Monaco is going the way of the dodo. Navistar may well not escape bankruptcy either, as their competitors are in a lot better shape.
Regrettably, I think you got it about right.
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Old 01-20-2013, 09:32 AM   #31
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Well, they are obviously going to act in ways that maintain or improve the value of the RV division until it can be sold for a profit. So continued quality improvements, bolstering customer service and product development would be expected. If they were planning liquidation, their actions would be entirely different.

I think their business plan was that they had a healthy truck business with a promising engine under development that could carry an RV business (bought on the cheap) until it could be turned around. With their truck business faltering, they need to concentrate on turning that around. Since they are primarily a truck business, they will sacrifice the RV business without much anguish over it.

Question is, who would buy their RV business? They are selling a product that has a shrinking customer base and is somewhat out of step with the marketplace. The other manufacturers can expand their current product lines for alot less money than buying another manufacturer. But most all the manufacturers have unused capacity as we speak.

I think the writing is on the wall. Monaco is going the way of the dodo. Navistar may well not escape bankruptcy either, as their competitors are in a lot better shape.
I agree that Navistar is struggling, and has a long road ahead of them, but they are well on the road to coming back with there Trucks

Navistar Shipping International ProStar+ Trucks with Cummins ISX15 Engines | News content from American Machinist

As for the RV division I wish I could find it again but I recentely read that the Towable sales for 2012 was up 60% and that the Class A sales was up 30%.

There are a lot of people that have invested in Navistar Stocks that are betting they will turn it around and there stock's are up 30% from there worst last fall.

Did Navistar dig themselves into a hole yes, but they have guit digging and are doing all the right things to start filling in the hole.

They have invested in RV end and I do not see them giving up on that, sell it maybe but close it down, I don't see them planning on that.

They still have a 90+ lead time on new orders for there Motohomes.(Don't know about the towables end) They just brought out a bunch of new floorplans for the Diplomats, and they have brought out a new Dynasty with plans to bring out even higher end products.

While they may have stopped producing the Vesta and Trip, that is normal in any business of this size to drop a product line and introduce others as the market decides what they really want.

Time will tell what will happen, but I see them as doing everything in there power to turn things around. A lot of companies have recovered from way worse. I still beleive they are on the right track to turning things around.

As for selling the RV division, they have a proven product and designs, there are always investors looking to buy a business, especially when the RV market looks to be on the upswing.
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Old 01-20-2013, 09:43 AM   #32
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Old 01-20-2013, 10:10 AM   #33
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CampDaven that is very true, but they are also heavily investing into R & R on bringing the new Trucks and changing there motors around. So a lot of that was expected.
There wasn't a lot of negativity on the stock markets when they brought that news out, cause it was expected with all of the carry over and the heavy development involved with switching over the SCR
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Old 01-20-2013, 10:12 AM   #34
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I think you have to peel the onion a bit to evaluate weather the market is on an upswing and how that would effect Navistar.

The towables market has definately improved and that makes sense. It is a big market because it is serving working families looking for vacation type RV's. The coach market is smaller market as it serves the retirees (for the most part) and as prices have really increased, the affluent retiree market.

The towables market is high volume, lower margin. The coach market is low volume, high margin. There still is way too many manufacturers and too much spare capacity in both markets. With the economy slowly improving, that may help both markets. But working families aren't seeing huge improvements in income, so the towables market probably will continue to be very price competitive, and thus not hugely profitable.

With the potential for volatility with energy prices, even with huge advances in US production, I'm not very bullish on any industry that is exposed to the energy sector, or is a discretionary, luxury item. With losses like is being reported, investing in Navistar is a purely speculative play, so keep your eyes on the news and get ready to get out if necessary.
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Old 01-20-2013, 01:25 PM   #35
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Wincrasher I'm no expert on world affairs, but I see the fact that Motorhomes sales being up 30% and towables up 60% as being positive for the industry. It's a whole sight better than being down.

What happens going forward I guess time will tell. All I personally see is that things are trying to get better, I for one sure hope so. In our global world things can change quickly, but only time will tell.
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Old 01-21-2013, 01:42 PM   #36
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Wincrasher I'm no expert on world affairs, but I see the fact that Motorhomes sales being up 30% and towables up 60% as being positive for the industry. It's a whole sight better than being down.
I saw an RV at the Tampa Supershow with 8 SOLD stickers on it and I kid you not. This was not a unique incidence either as many RVs on display were getting stickered including the million dollar rigs. This certainly looks like up to me!
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Old 01-23-2013, 07:00 AM   #37
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Traps: Do not be fooled by % figures. How many towables did Monaco sell in 2011 and how many in 2012? I remember back in the 70's when the RV industry came to a halt. One dealer bragged that his sales doubled in March. That was true. He sold one unit in February and two in March, Driver's review of the Dynasty is the ONLY positive review that I have seen. EVERY Monaco owner that saw the Dynasty was disappointed. Especially on the fit and finish. Driver: If you ever want a new career you could do the MH write ups in FMCA magazine!
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:34 AM   #38
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Traps: Do not be fooled by % figures. How many towables did Monaco sell in 2011 and how many in 2012?
At the RVIA Exposition in Louisville, KY, the RV Press voted and awarded the HR Presidential Fifth Wheel as "Best (RV) In Show".

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I remember back in the 70's when the RV industry came to a halt. One dealer bragged that his sales doubled in March. That was true. He sold one unit in February and two in March ...
That's so true!

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Driver's review of the Dynasty is the ONLY positive review that I have seen. EVERY Monaco owner that saw the Dynasty was disappointed. Especially on the fit and finish. Driver: If you ever want a new career you could do the MH write ups in FMCA magazine!
The review that I offered was in regard to the "2014 Dynasty" I saw in Kentucky and I don't believe that it's for sale right now since I think I saw the same unit at the Tampa Supershow. Although I did not check the VIN#, the color was the same. Since I believe that there aren't that many 2014 Monaco Dynasty motorhomes on the road at the moment, I would be interested in seeing the number for "every Monaco owner" that you mentioned. If you knew 1 - 2014 Monaco owner, I expect that this would play toward the thought process that you were speaking about in Para 2. If you knew 2 you could then say "every" or 200% of the Monaco owners that I know hated the Dynasty!

Monaco in Wakarusa, today, is diligent in delivering products with a 92% defect free production output. Assembly line employees are told that they either all get the incentive bonus or nobody gets the bonus. Just imagine if you're the guy that causes everyone else to miss out on their bonus. One of the members here, Traps90, is expecting to take delivery of a 2013 Navistar RV so I will wait for his assessment in regard to fit and finish.

In closing, I don't believe that FMCA would put a job on the table for me but I'm open to the offer.
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:57 AM   #39
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.......
In closing, I don't believe that FMCA would put a job on the table for me but I'm open to the offer.
I'm thinking that "maybe" FMCA is afraid you would blow their budget ........for ink. But if I'm wrong, I hope YOU get the job!

I'd much rather read positive reviews ( knowing they contain a little "marketing spin" ) than so much negative sniping such as is routinely found in these forums.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:10 AM   #40
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I'd much rather read positive reviews ( knowing they contain a little "marketing spin" ) than so much negative sniping such as is routinely found in these forums.
That's precisely the reason I dropped Trailer Life. I was sick and tired of the marketing spin and sunshine pumping - if I read a review, I want the truth, both the good and the bad.

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Old 01-23-2013, 11:28 AM   #41
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All the pre-production and show coaches end up being sold to someone.

My dad bought one from Monaco about 10 years ago. What a pile of junk it was too. Lots of cobbled together parts, brackets, etc.

It was pretty though.

The magazines are in a sad state. I think very few folks do alot of research before they buy, so I imagine sales of these mags is not that great. So they are heavily dependent on manufactures to sponsor them, so you have a built-in conflict of interest. I subscribe to Trailer Life on the ipad. Sometimes I find ads for products I didn't know about, so it has been somewhat useful to buy accessories. But the full-on RV reviews are virtually worthless, might as well bind up a few press releases. I suppose they might print a review that said "needs some improvement" if it exploded and killed the reviewer and his family.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:45 AM   #42
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All the pre-production and show coaches end up being sold to someone.

My dad bought one from Monaco about 10 years ago. What a pile of junk it was too. Lots of cobbled together parts, brackets, etc.

It was pretty though.

The magazines are in a sad state. I think very few folks do alot of research before they buy, so I imagine sales of these mags is not that great. So they are heavily dependent on manufactures to sponsor them, so you have a built-in conflict of interest. I subscribe to Trailer Life on the ipad. Sometimes I find ads for products I didn't know about, so it has been somewhat useful to buy accessories. But the full-on RV reviews are virtually worthless, might as well bind up a few press releases. I suppose they might print a review that said "needs some improvement" if it exploded and killed the reviewer and his family.
Wincrasher makes a very good point about the pointlessness of magazine reviews. Since they rely on the manufacturers for revenue they are not real reviews. I also subscribe to a couple of the car mags but they are generally more objective in their reviews IMO.
What might be a little more helpful would be more flat out product comparisons based on some specific criteria, like power, ride, handling, amenities etc.
I think comparisons would not only be helpful to consumers but would help the makers up their game.
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