A sign that the party is over?

[baraff]

"Winnebago said that the motorhome segment's revenue loss was driven by decreases in both Class C and Class A unit sales as dealers continue to lower their inventories."
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...-miss-14995819

[marjoa]

I'm not sure what party you're speaking about but it couldn't be the RV party generally speaking. You go to a big RV lot or a show/RV convention these days and there are Sooooooo many choices. Competition is ferocious and these days many younger people are getting into RVing with different tastes, needs and budgets than the dying out baby boomers like us.

• The RV market IMO is like any other market. You'll have top name brands that make sure they produce top products and can garnish a top price

• Next will be the middle of the roaders. Pretty good product, some compromises but can fit a lot of budgets

• Then you have the last tier manufacturers. Make a product that looks good when new, won't last, but a great entry level price point. These are quick turn around profit makers and don't care much for follow up customer service issues

Wiinnebago has the best long term brand recognition and my hope is they focus on #1 and #2.

We'll see. But Wiinnebago is here to stay.

[baraff]

I'm not worried about Winnebago, they seem to have a strong, long established track record in weathering downturns.
My point was that by "is the party over", has the appetite for purchasing RVs finally slowed down, and is it indicative of a general slowdown and turnaround in the industry? I can tell you on a recent trip I noticed many, many dealers with millions of dollars of inventory sitting in their lots unsold, everything from TT's to high end Class A's. Is the market saturated?
I find it interesting that the article did not mention Class B motorhomes. Perhaps these are what "millennials" and Gen Xers are buying?
As you said, time will tell.

[Trapper2022]

Sounds like a good time to buy. Might explain the 37% discount off msrp we just received on a 2020 class c ordered for delivery this July.


Enjoy the journey

[Mudfrog]

Originally Posted by baraff

"Winnebago said that the motorhome segment's revenue loss was driven by decreases in both Class C and Class A unit sales as dealers continue to lower their inventories."
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...-miss-14995819

Winnebago isn't going anywhere. They'll adjust what they build to go with what people want. From what I see around our area and in parks, trailers are where it's at these days. I see more new bumper pull trailers in driveways and at campgrounds than any other RV. Winnebago manufactures these as well so you can bet they're getting a piece of the action!

[Mr_D]

Originally Posted by Trapperbob11

Sounds like a good time to buy. Might explain the 37% discount off msrp we just received on a 2020 class c ordered for delivery this July.

Or being overpriced to begin with!

[Kahoona]

Be nice if there were fewer of us on the road. Just the IRV2 folks home on the range again.

[raineman]

RV shipments for March 2019 fell 26%.

Shipments year-to-date are down 27%.

RV Sales are definitely down.

Good article here about RV sales decline:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/426...eams-recession

[richard5933]

Industry downturns always look sudden and severe when you're in the middle of one. This one is partially due to the industry rushing units to the market to meet a pent-up demand that existed after the 'great recession' of 2008. Now things are returning to the point where they would have been had the 2008 market crash not occurred, IMO.

True, it looks like the industry over estimated how long the bubble would last, and now they're stuck with extra inventory. Does it mean the party is over? Don't know - my invitation to the party must have gotten lost in the mail so I never made it. I'm not worried - the better manufacturers will rise to the top, the worst will go away, and those in the middle will continue to limp along like they always have.

[Solo_RV_Guy]

Originally Posted by raineman

RV shipments for March 2019 fell 26%.

Shipments year-to-date are down 27%.

RV Sales are definitely down.

Good article here about RV sales decline:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/426...eams-recession

I'm not sure slowing RV sales can be attributed *solely* to some 6th sense of impending recession but there are multiple reasons folks slow down on major purchases, especially the "luxury" items that can be deferred.


Some might be the fading of the Baby Boomer population (the oldest of us are nearing or in the assisted living stage) and boomers have held some pretty significant cash for retirement toys... and that demographic group is getting smaller.


Younger RVers, the ones who can work while living a mobile existence, aren't in a upgrade cycle yet. Ditto for young families that bought in 3-5 years ago.


I'd wager that there are folks who are snapping up the nicely built pre-2009 models rather than buying the hastily built new units.


I suspect that both quality and market saturation has plenty to do with the drop in new unit sales as used, quality coaches command higher prices than seems reasonable.



And then there are the handful of folks that can sniff out a potential downturn and decide to wait and see.

[WantAB]

I live in Elkhart County, Indiana. The proclaimed "RV Capital of the World". The offsite RV storage lots aren't as full (waiting for delivery to Dealers) as they were last year.

[astrocamper]

I feel it would be a plus is things cooled off a bit.. I live in Reno and have lots of options to camp off the grid away from developed campgrounds. I notice the state and national park campgrounds in many places are reserved several months in advance.

My younger son is a climber and works on jobs that require ropes for access. He and many of his friends in their 30's either travel out of a van or truck bed/cap that was modified to meet their needs. Some of them live full time in these smaller spaces. There is a lot of value in going this route for people who can get by with less space. I helped my son add solar to his truck and he made his own solar water heater out of black PVC. He makes decent money but choses to live frugally so he can be surfing, climbing, going to high line gatherings, etc... He works intensely for a a few months at a time on a project and then travels and does the things he likes the rest of the time. He is on vacation about 5 month of a year.

My point is there are a lot of younger people who travel and camp out of vehicles they modify themselves and don't spend the kind of money on RVs that require loans and payments. A truck camper or a modified van is probably the most RV they would want. These vehicles can go anywhere and server as their daily driver.

The larger RVs serve a smaller market and a lot of people don't have the money, parking space, time or want to drive a 3/4 - 1 ton truck as a daily driver.

[Finance]

Boomers will leave a surplus of everything they took an interest in.

[gatorb8]

maybe prices will drop, time to party!