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Old 12-14-2018, 01:28 PM   #1
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Diesel sticker shock coming??

HAS PEAK DIESEL ARRIVED?? The Data Doesn’t Look Good

The article provides some sobering data suggesting that the global production of diesel fuel may have peaked.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...esnt-look-good
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Old 12-14-2018, 01:40 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randm Musing View Post
HAS PEAK DIESEL ARRIVED?? The Data Doesn’t Look Good

The article provides some sobering data suggesting that the global production of diesel fuel may have peaked.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...esnt-look-good
I have very little confidence in this article..
It appears to make an attempt to justify higher prices due to the "supposed" shortage. via starting malicious rumors..
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Old 12-14-2018, 02:18 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randm Musing View Post
HAS PEAK DIESEL ARRIVED?? The Data Doesn’t Look Good

The article provides some sobering data suggesting that the global production of diesel fuel may have peaked.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...esnt-look-good
.

So? Nothing you can do about it
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Old 12-14-2018, 02:21 PM   #4
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Links like this is how ZeroHedge gets clicks (and revenue).
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Old 12-14-2018, 02:30 PM   #5
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EIA Energy AOutlook 2018 - 2050

I work for a major, fully integrated oil company (i.e. exploration / production / refining) and will state the originally posted article is not accurate. The long term energy outlook from the U.S Energy Information Administration and my company's outlook both forecast ample gasoline, kerosene/jet fuel and diesel production in the U.S. See page 55 of the EIA's 2018 Long Term Outlook --> https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2018.pdf

Thanks to low price crude oil from shale formations in west and south Texas, Colorado and Oklahoma, U.S. refineries have been and will continue to maximize crude oil processing rates while at the same time the U.S. consumption of gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel and diesel has been generally flat and expected to decline some as automobile manufacturers must meet EPA mandated higher fuel mileage for vehicles they produce.

The end result is production of gasoline, diesel, et al from U.S. refineries far exceeds demand from consumers thus the U.S. exports some 5 - 7 millions barrels per day of gasoline, diesel, et al to other parts of the world.

And refinery's in the U.S. have considerable flexibility to maximize gasoline or maximize diesel production to meet market demands.

There is not a shortage of diesel or any other refined fuel product in the U.S. anytime in the near future!!
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Old 12-14-2018, 02:56 PM   #6
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Diesel vs. Gasoline Price

The forum may also be interested in why the price for diesel is 60-70 cents per gallon higher that gasoline. The two big reasons are:

1) Global diesel price which is tied to the price of Brent (UK North Sea) crude oil
2) Cost to manufacture the ultra-low sulfur diesel required in the U.S.

Brent crude oils costs $10 per barrel (24 cents per gallon) more than U.S. crude oils. U.S. diesel prices must include the "crude price differential" otherwise U.S. refiners would export the diesel they make to global markets and sell very little in the U.S.

Diesel costs 30 cents per gallon more to manufacture that gasoline. The effort and cost to produce 10 ppm sulfur content diesel (ULSD) is significantly greater than the effort and cost to produce the 10 ppm sulfur content gasoline we all use.

Diesel cost 5-10 cents per gallon more to transport from refineries to service stations / truck stops compared to gasoline. Semi-truck size fuel transport size trucks are limited by weight, not volume, for the amount of gasoline and/or diesel that can be transported. The density of diesel is 20% higher than that of gasoline meaning for the same total weight of diesel and gasoline transported, the volume of diesel is 20% less that the volume of gasoline that can be transported. Thus the higher transportation cost per gallon for diesel compared t gasoline.

To summarize, the cost of diesel is 60-70 cents per gallon higher than gasoline due to Brent vs. U.S. crude prices (24 cpg) + higher manufacturing cost (30 cpg) + higher transportation costs (5-10 cpg).
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Old 12-14-2018, 03:27 PM   #7
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Fagnaml - Thanks for presenting facts rather than conjecture. I am fully confident that US refineries will produce the mix of fuel types that is most profitable for them as long as they have oil, and the supply of crude looks excellent for the next30-40 years. As long as there is a worldwide demand for diesel, plenty will be produced. The only potential wrinkle is meddling in market prices by Congress, ala the current restriction on gasoline exports.
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Old 12-14-2018, 04:04 PM   #8
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Diesel sticker shock coming??

Quote:
Originally Posted by fagnaml View Post
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2018.pdf

...while at the same time the U.S. consumption of gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel and diesel has been generally flat and expected to decline some as automobile manufacturers must meet EPA mandated higher fuel mileage for vehicles they produce.!!

Thanks for the link. A very data rich report.

One has to wonder about how self serving lobbying might change gas/diesel demand. The Oil Industry’s Covert Campaign to Rewrite American Car Emissions Rules https://nyti.ms/2GdxWHH?smid=nytcore-ios-share

The big wildcard in all these projections is going to be how the US responds to intensified climate change the world is facing. Seems like less Dino fuel and more electric renewables is part of the future.
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Old 12-14-2018, 11:50 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VegasFoodGuy View Post
.

So? Nothing you can do about it


If there was any truth to it I could be informed.
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Old 12-14-2018, 11:55 PM   #10
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This
http://www.irv2.com/forums/f59/diese...ml#post4543591

and this
http://www.irv2.com/forums/f59/diese...ml#post4543624


is very good information.
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Old 12-14-2018, 11:58 PM   #11
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So if it isn't true that there isn't gong to be enough diesel, how about too much diesel????


http://www.irv2.com/forums/f64/be-ca...rs-423402.html
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