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Old 12-04-2014, 08:35 AM   #1
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Forecast for the RV Industry!

The annual RVIAShow is held in Louisville, KY (51 years now). The Recreational Vehicle Industry Association represents nearly 300 manufacturers and component suppliers producing approximately 98 percent of all RVs manufactured in the United States (so says their website). We live close enough to Louisville that we get their local channels as ours and several news channels did a brief interview with a couple of the wheels.

One was the Jayco CEO who said that they are now at the same production level as they were prior to the recession and with the big drop in gas prices, feel RVs are only going to increase in popularity.

Another whose name & title I can't remember but think he was an official with RVIA said that about 9 million people in America have RVs of some sort. He also felt the drop in gas prices were going to create increased interest in RVing.

I'm not sure if that's good or bad! I like the drop in gas (although we've not noticed a huge drop in diesel yet) but that will probably mean increased competition for sites in our park systems and higher prices in other campgrounds.

I don't know if it's just because I'm always on the look out now for RVs on the road but it seems to me that every time I'm on a major road, I see an RV of some sort going somewhere and it seems there are more parked in driveways along the route. I pass a storage lot frequently and there are more units parked in it now. My vet & his family own a climate controlled building which is almost full now. He says he gets more in every year.

Have you noticed more RVs on the road or parked in drives & lots over the past few months?
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Old 12-04-2014, 09:01 AM   #2
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Excellent news and yes I have noticed a lot of and a wide variety of RV's on the road out here in the Napa Valley wine country. Big change.

Since I'm in the market for buying used, that means a lot of great used rvs will be coming onto a buyer's market as most of the low-information newbies will be buying new because of their fears of buying used and many experienced owners decide to trade up.

Unfortunately, there is also a growing downsizing trend for older experienced rvers, but they kind of like new as well.

However, I'm cheerful as I await my upcoming buying mode because:
1) I prefer buying in the 30's length which expands my site options
2) Unfortunately most of the excellent used models are longer dps
3) But, since I have cash, time is on my side, and being willing to pay a premium for the right 30's dp is doable and will get easier as more 30's are coming on the market
4) And the gas suspension has narrowed the diesel gap enough that buying newer used gas models is opening up as a reasonably comparable choice depending on how much seat time on the road one likes...myself, I intend to limit the driving time on the road, but not the distance.
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Old 12-04-2014, 10:19 AM   #3
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For the past ten years or so, I have seen the big increase in the number of rv's. If there is any doubt, just look at all the newbys checking in. I long for the old days at times, but also know I have things better personally, than I did years ago. Just proves---you cannot have everything.
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Old 12-04-2014, 11:18 AM   #4
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Well Newby, it wasn't.
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Old 12-04-2014, 11:30 AM   #5
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Why would anyone buy anually?...seems like an unreasonable comment. I'm hearing that the rv mfgs are back up to production levels not seen in many years...that alone means more rvs on the road and more used rvs coming available, without have to worry about anyones perceptions of who is or who is not buying as a group type.
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Old 12-04-2014, 12:19 PM   #6
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Well Newby, it wasn't.

the perfect come-back
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Old 12-04-2014, 01:33 PM   #7
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[Mod Edit]
Quote:
Originally Posted by RodgerS View Post
Excellent news and yes I have noticed a lot of and a wide variety of RV's on the road out here in the Napa Valley wine country. Big change.

Since I'm in the market for buying used, that means a lot of great used rvs will be coming onto a buyer's market as most of the low-information newbies will be buying new because of their fears of buying used and many experienced owners decide to trade up.

Unfortunately, there is also a growing downsizing trend for older experienced rvers, but they kind of like new as well.

However, I'm cheerful as I await my upcoming buying mode because:
1) I prefer buying in the 30's length which expands my site options
2) Unfortunately most of the excellent used models are longer dps
3) But, since I have cash, time is on my side, and being willing to pay a premium for the right 30's dp is doable and will get easier as more 30's are coming on the market
4) And the gas suspension has narrowed the diesel gap enough that buying newer used gas models is opening up as a reasonably comparable choice depending on how much seat time on the road one likes...myself, I intend to limit the driving time on the road, but not the distance.

RogerS>

We also wanted to and did stay under 36' when we started looking for a diesel to replace the 29' gasser. I watched ads for weeks and it seemed that there were very few in that size range for sale either new or used. Once we adjusted our price for our gasser to a slightly lower price & upgraded the ad, we had lots of calls and several to come see it. We sold it at the new asking price without the new owners even driving it.

As for the RV market, IMO (which doesn't count for much) the used market would go up in price as noobs (to avoid a spelling mistake) look for their first RV. As the market recovers and grows, the demand for new & used will go up which probably means an uptick in the price too.

We probably should have looked at higher quality gassers instead of jumping to the diesel but after wrestling our gasser for 3 years to keep it on the road, we had our minds set on a diesel. I don't think we will regret buying what we did when we did though.

Good luck with your search. Be ready to jump when you find something though!
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Old 12-04-2014, 05:29 PM   #8
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My wife and I own two lots in an RV Resort in North Carolina. In the last two years their have been 15 lots sold. In the previous 7 years there were 2 lots sold. Yes lot prices have come down just as home prices have fallen back as well. We have hundreds of thousands of Boomers that are retiring and I expect them to enter into the RV Lifestyle.
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Old 12-04-2014, 06:08 PM   #9
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I have visited Las Vegas at this time for several years and this is the busiest I have seen it since the '08 recession.
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Old 12-04-2014, 07:52 PM   #10
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Yes

Many financial investment people in the loop have been saying the RV industry will have steady growth and strong returns over the next ten years. Of course this could all go the craper if the economy faulters, fuel sky rockets again or there is another terror attack like 9-11 God forbid.
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Old 12-04-2014, 08:56 PM   #11
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This from rvbusiness.com confirms the RV industry is coming back strong: RVIA: October RV Shipments are Best in 38 Years | RV Business
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Old 12-06-2014, 01:58 PM   #12
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The market has come back somewhat since 2008 kicked the industry in the rears.

On my two recent trips to Florida, I have seen RV dealerships that had been "hanging on" to have since closed.

The RV business remains very competitive, however it (and the boat business) still suck. Don't let a salesman tell you that another customer might buy one of their 30 travel trailers in stock out from under you tomorrow.

Yes, some baby boomers will be coming into the market--but many boomers (like myself) have already bought RV's. I would be looking for mid single digit increases in sales in the future.

What concerns me now is a general lack of good RV dealerships--even in large towns. Competition is healthy, and there may less of that in the future. I don't care to think that I might have to pay $125 hourly service labor to get my RV fixed.
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Old 12-06-2014, 03:46 PM   #13
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I don't understand it. People are buying Rv's because of lower gas prices ???? Are people really that dumb (like the American voter) Do they really think these gas prices are going to stay low forever ? They are sure to go back up starting in mid 2015. And could be right back where they were or higher. The arabs arnt through with us yet folks just wait and see but if you can't see that then go ahead and buy because "we have low gas prices " Good luck with that logic......
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Old 12-06-2014, 04:52 PM   #14
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I don't understand it. People are buying Rv's because of lower gas prices ???? Are people really that dumb (like the American voter) Do they really think these gas prices are going to stay low forever ? They are sure to go back up starting in mid 2015. And could be right back where they were or higher. The arabs arnt through with us yet folks just wait and see but if you can't see that then go ahead and buy because "we have low gas prices " Good luck with that logic......
Gas prices go up every year, just in time for Memorial Day weekend. No doubt it will happen to some degree in 2015, but one of the big differences now is that we (the US) recently became the number one oil producing nation. Russia could go into recession over this and the Arabs (OPEC) want to cut back production to bolster the price worldwide but fortunately can't agree.

One of the other forecasts for 2015, is that long term interest rates are expected to start going up. How much and when is anybody's guess, but if you need a loan to own your RV, it may cost you more a month. So what you save in gas or diesel may become somewhat lost to the bank in the form of interest.

The Fed is also talking about tax reform. If we lose the interest deduction as a primary or second home, that may be very harmful. However with the lack of our government being able to agree on anything, tax reform is still a long way off...
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