Tough times ahead?

[Cloud Dancer]

Buy low, sell high. It sounds too simple, not falling for it I'm looking to buy a piece of property in Bent New Mexico, adjacent to my friend's place. I'm also thinking about Tijeras NM, maybe a hardship case deal will come up.

[Jay D.]

The Elkhart situation is probably typical of that type of business. rv's are not going to sell as brisk in the fall and winter months as they do in the spring and summer months. I worked in a lumber mill for 15 years when I was a kid. it was a well known fact that things might get slow about October and through to march. housing starts would be down, remodels would be down, people were just not spending now like they did in the summer months. we would shift to a 4 day work week sometimes but usually we were steady because of a strong export market. really it was nothing to do with a recession.
Jay D.

[creativepart]

Originally Posted by Jay D.

The Elkhart situation is probably typical of that type of business. rv's are not going to sell as brisk in the fall and winter months as they do in the spring and summer months.

Of course. But RV production/delivery/sales have been declining for 18 months from the historic highs of 2016 and 2017. This is not an "end of summer slowdown."

[TriMoot]

Originally Posted by Fritz.

I hope so. I just sold a house and am waiting for the next recession to buy again. Lol

ME TOO Fritz! I'll be homeless in TEN DAYS!! AAAHHH!!!

Oh wait...I have an RV...YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL!

But it is sort of a strange feeling not having a permanent house...sort of...not terrible, since we do have the RV. And we lived in it for two weeks while the house was on the market, and then left for two more weeks for vacation, and when we came back, we stayed in it instead of going into the house and messing it up. All that time and not ONCE did we say it was too small. And that's coming from a 4000 sq ft HOUSE!

BUT...it does get cold here in Spokane, so we are looking...I don't think I would want to try and stay in the RV during the cold part of the year. I think then it would feel too small!

[Jay D.]

Originally Posted by creativepart

Of course. But RV production/delivery/sales have been declining for 18 months from the historic highs of 2016 and 2017. This is not an "end of summer slowdown."

2017 was a peak 2018 is just slightly lower and no info for 2019. for some reason there was a hi sales period during 2017 ,the most in several years. the industry can't expect to stay on that hi for ever, it needs to drop to a more steady average then play the ups and downs. its like if we sold 2000 more units in 2017 than we did in 2016 we did great. but if in 2018 we sold 500 less we have a start of a recession. Jay D.

[akeagle]

Originally Posted by hohenwald48

People, especially those on Wall Street, have been looking for a way to predict the future since there was a Wall Street. I suspect RV sales figures are no worse and no better than the other thousands of methods the prognosticators have devised.

The question is "are you willing to bet money on it"?

Wall Streeters are not above manipulating finances, information, or both to benefit themselves. Witness their complicity in our recent "Great Recession" and that some of them went bankrupt. I also call propaganda and disinformation.

[jim1521]

Originally Posted by Fritz.

I hope so. I just sold a house and am waiting for the next recession to buy again. Lol

We did EXACTLY the same thing.

I am of the belief that regardless of when/whether a “recession” is coming, there is going to be a glut in real estate - especially in retirement states such as Florida. The “baby boomer” generation is dying off and/or moving into assisted living. The generation that is following (Generation X) doesn’t have the headcount to backfill all the retirement real estate that is being left behind by the baby boomers. Baby Boomers numbered 76 million between 1946-1965 vs. 55 million Generation X between 1965-1981.



Millennials are too far behind to have an immediate impact on this overage of real estate in the short term. We’re literally banking on the retirement real estate market bottoming out around 2025. That’s when we’ll buy back into the sticks and bricks. Until then, we’re full timing. We just ordered a new 2020 Riverstone 39FK fifth wheel and that will be home for the next six years.

[creativepart]

Originally Posted by Jay D.

2017 was a peak 2018 is just slightly lower and no info for 2019.

Quote from RV Business trade magazine:

The overall U.S. motorized market incurred a 16.5% year-over-year sales decline for the first six months of 2019 as both Class A and Class C markets registered double-digit retail sales declines.

Keep in mind that 16.5% drop was over the previous down year.

And, 2017 didn't just have a particularly big year. Every year after 2009 had a particularly big year.

[Dutch Star Don]

We flew into ELkhart last year to watch our coach get billed. We drove all over the Elkhart area and surrounding cities. I never realized how the area worked. There are warehouses/manufacturing plants everywhere. As the industry expands, the warehouses are eased out and opened and the industry constricts, buildings are shut down and sit dormant. So the ebb and flow of the RV industry is nothing new.

For the second time this month, we passed a RV dealer in central California, that easily has a 1000 towables in stock. The lot is literally the size of 5 football fields. You would almost think it was a distribution lot for RV's. I think when the RV industry went BOOM a few years back, you know, campgrounds booked to the max, the industry just kept building with no regard for a slow down or gut of RV's.

[saddlesore]

Originally Posted by Smitty77

I also noted to him, that I'm approached a few times months on LinkedIn for either myself. And at times if I know of others, for professional positions.

Will we see a dip in the economy? Of course! It's a cycle. But we sure do not need the doom & gloom of the press to help accelerate things....

Smitty

Exactly correct.. I receive a minimum of 3 job offers a week, both by LinkedIn and direct recruiting contacts....
The biggest thing they say that is creating a shortage of workers in all fields is the inability to find personnel that display a strong work ethnic AND will consistently pass a drug scan.

[marjoa]

Originally Posted by av8tor2

An Economic Warning Sign: RV Sales Are Slipping:

RV sales are but a dot and blip in the over all financial scheme of things. Again, just this week, Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowes among other major retailers reporting record breaking gains and breaking Wall Street estimates. Align that with 66% of what leading US market analysts are saying that the economy is strong and no 2 quarters in a row of economic decline. There is NO recession in sight.

Consumer spending is strong and confident. Record low unemployment. Wages up and not enough people to fill job openings. Even restaurant and take out business is seeing a whopping increase.

As I said in post# 2....fake news, fake fears, more propaganda. Numbers don't lie, news and political pundits do.

Believe what you want.

[Hooligan]

No sign of a recession. All political maneuvering.
Bill Maher announced how great a recession would be before the next election and all with that particular point of view jumped on the bandwagon for solely political reasons.
................and I'll leave it at that...

[Spk64]

Thread Warning
Lets keep this thread on topic and without the politics.


Thanks,
Steve as Site Staff

[saddlesore]

Originally Posted by Hooligan

No sign of a recession. All political maneuvering.
Bill Maher announced how great a recession would be before the next election and all with that particular point of view jumped on the bandwagon for solely political reasons.
................and I'll leave it at that...

I concur