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Old 08-19-2019, 10:09 AM   #1
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Tough times ahead?

An Economic Warning Sign: RV Sales Are Slipping:

from the Wall Street Journal:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-cou...566207001:eek:
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Old 08-19-2019, 09:04 PM   #2
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bla, bla, bla.

More propaganda, fear and fake news.

Move on everyone and enjoy your life while you can.
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Old 08-19-2019, 09:49 PM   #3
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I hope so. I just sold a house and am waiting for the next recession to buy again. Lol
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Old 08-19-2019, 10:03 PM   #4
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A good friend commented how typical we hear so much doom & gloom on the economy. Recession coming! Dow dip's. Etc. But just a few weeks ago, he recorded the Big Three networks Evening News - and not one of them covered the dow's record breaking above 27K.... His view? Well, bad news sales! And they want to spin things in a negative way...

My comment back to him, after a my wife and I have traveled from Southern California to Oregon in May, via Hwy 99 and then 5. And then back to San Diego down 5 the full way month or so later for a friends 40th, taking out Toad. And yep then returning back to our coach in Oregon again - this time via East of the Sierra's Hwy 395. Was in this few months period of traveling thru these various regions - we constantly spotted 'Help Wanted' signs. (Sadly, we also laughed a few times, as pan handlers were on some corners with 'help wanted' signs nearby.

I also noted to him, that I'm approached a few times months on LinkedIn for either myself. And at times if I know of others, for professional positions.

Will we see a dip in the economy? Of course! It's a cycle. But we sure do not need the doom & gloom of the press to help accelerate things....

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Old 08-20-2019, 09:16 AM   #5
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People, especially those on Wall Street, have been looking for a way to predict the future since there was a Wall Street. I suspect RV sales figures are no worse and no better than the other thousands of methods the prognosticators have devised.

The question is "are you willing to bet money on it"?
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Old 08-20-2019, 09:50 AM   #6
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If RV sales decline, dealers will be willing to negotiate a lower price on new and used RVs. It may be a good time to upgrade. With less people buying there won’t be as many used trade ins and the used market will be good for my trade too.
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Old 08-20-2019, 09:57 AM   #7
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Motorhome sales dip? Just like Harley Davidson Motorcycles. It's not so much the economy, the younger crowd are not buying like the Viet Nam age group did.
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Old 08-20-2019, 10:03 AM   #8
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its all a rollercoaster ride there will always be ups and downs I would think coming into winter certain things would naturally slow down some. the sad thing is that our media will keep preaching it .soon a lot of people will start to believe it. then they will tighten money that will start a down turn.
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Old 08-20-2019, 10:15 AM   #9
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The economy cycles. Recessions historically occur every 6 to 8 years. So, based on nothing but previous history since WWII we are overdue for a recession. Actually, it would be a surprise if we didn't have a recession in the next 18 months. But there are big recessions and there are small recessions.

RV sales have been down for the 2nd year in a row. This is not "fake news."

Quote from RV Business trade magazine:
Quote:
The overall U.S. motorized market incurred a 16.5% year-over-year sales decline for the first six months of 2019 as both Class A and Class C markets registered double-digit retail sales declines.
In the past RV sales drops have preceded recessions. Whether the same will be true in today's economy is not known. But the OPs article from WSJ (a conservative newspaper) just points this fact out. It does not predict the future.
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Old 08-20-2019, 11:07 AM   #10
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I can predict with absolute certainty that we are heading to a recession in the future.


In the near future? Maybe. There are some warning signs that shouldn't be ignored.
In the far future? Maybe. It's possible that humanity will become interplanetary while will reduce the likelyhood of economic problems, but it's definitely still possible.
Sometime in the future? Absolutely! It's practically a statistical necessity. The likelihood of there never being another recession is astronomically tiny.



I'm in the group of people who thinks one is coming sooner rather than later. There really are a lot of signs pointing to it. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit one like the 2008 crash or worse in the next 5 years. I don't consider RV sales a factor. That's just too much of a stretch. If all luxury items are in decline, we might have an issue though.
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Old 08-20-2019, 11:54 AM   #11
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I read this article yesterday. I don't think folks now seeing a 4 day work week qualifies as fake news. I also don't think the folks in Elkhart, IN, who were interviewed, were making-up seeing a decline in sales. Seems like the primary sources in Elkhart are pretty reliable. The stats they quoted concur with what I read from the RV industry folks.

Now whether RV's are an indicator of a recession or the overall economy is another question.

I think many of us are still worried that the next recession will be as bad the 2008 meltdown. Seems pretty natural to work on trying to mitigate the issues before it happens. I think lots of people are doing what we humans try to do - connect dots and discern a pattern.

I am sure we all know people who lost jobs and a lot of money. I think that's what most folks are doing. I can say that as an RV owner it crosses my mind, sometimes a lot. After all, I have this big luxury item sitting in my driving way (well, actually not in my driveway proper but at my RV mechanic since my HOA rules disallow it. )

Interestingly, many economists were unable to predict/recognize the last recession even while it was occurring despite it being so bad (source: Silver's Signal and the Noise and Tetlock's Superforecasting).

We do know that recessions and economic activity is cyclic.

Unfortunately, things are so politicized that even natural human curiosity and discussion is getting chalked up to sensationalism and fake. I hope we haven't lost our ability to have a discussion without finger pointing. Furthermore, it seems like those thing to which we disagree (as told by talking heads/pundits to whom we listen) are painted as fake. I think people in places like Elkhart and other RV industry people may see it as non-fake since it appears to be impacting them. I truly hope they come out fairly unscathed. It really must stink for them. I for one wish them the best.

As another person pointed out, I have thought about whether a slowdown is a better time to buy a coach.
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:52 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by av8tor2 View Post
An Economic Warning Sign: RV Sales Are Slipping:

from the Wall Street Journal:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-cou...566207001:eek:
There are already 2 threads on this subject. I don't believe in running scared. What can you personally do to change the situation anyway????
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Old 08-20-2019, 01:10 PM   #13
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I think a local news source in Elkhart that was posted on Marketwatch did a better job of covering this story in detail.


It is correct that RV sales by the manufacturers are down. Historically this MAY have been due to the early entry into recession....a recession did follow an RV sales downturn 3 of 5 times...or 60%. HOWEVER, they also reported on how the RV industry has been over-stuffing the supply chain and over-filling dealers lots and finally, much earlier this year, dealers decided they had too much inventory and cut back on their orders to the manfacturers. In another post on IRV2, the exact details by month and RV type were posted. By far, the largest monthly YTY drop was January. While each month has been down, the amount it was down varied quite a bit, but it looked like the 1st quarter was a good portion of the overall 20% decline in overall RV sales. If I recall, sales of RV Park models were actually up.



The industry itself feels that the year will end with approximately a 14% drop in manufacturer sales.


Autos also fall into the category of a leading indicator...but their sales are only down very slightly year-to-date. <2%. Hardly a number to scream "recession is coming" over.


Recession is coming, some day, as it always does.
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Old 08-20-2019, 01:12 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Ray,IN View Post
There are already 2 threads on this subject. I don't believe in running scared. What can you personally do to change the situation anyway????
Instead of purchasing 1 new MH, purchase 2. You will have double the depreciation which will help at tax time and you will contribute to the economy.
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