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Old 06-01-2008, 07:48 PM   #1
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So says Morgan Stanley.Newsweek article
Things will get grim for most everyone then.
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Old 06-01-2008, 07:48 PM   #2
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So says Morgan Stanley.Newsweek article
Things will get grim for most everyone then.
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Old 06-01-2008, 08:37 PM   #3
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I really don't know where the oil prices will go, but if you read the site from the previous post it is begining to sound a lot like the "big Shortage" in the 70's. I personnally witnessed tanker trucks filling tanks at gas stations that were closed in Barstow Calif. Folks we are beng duped again in MHO. It will continue as long as we allow it. For Diesel to jump a 1.50 a gal since Feb is ridiculous.
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Old 06-01-2008, 09:20 PM   #4
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You have that right Sarge.
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Old 06-01-2008, 10:13 PM   #5
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I think its time the average "Joe Blow Citizen' stood up and said enough is enough. let's do something. Lets pick a day and time we all just shut down and have a picnic on major freeways and hyways. We need to back the independent truckers and the company owned truckers as well. Recently, for what ever reason the Polar Bear has been added to the Endangered Species which means that any oil being drilled in that area may be shut down. Also, recently there was something about the Natural Gas fields in Utah where they may be endangering something and need to stop. This is all getting to be too much.
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Old 06-02-2008, 01:13 AM   #6
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There is also an oil speculator driven increase that could drive the price up to $6.00 because the Weather Beaurau predicted we might have more Hurricanes this year.

On the Natural Gas fields in Utah well my dad had an different perspective on that - "who needs them". His first job when he came home after WWI (he was stuck in Italy for the duration while vationing there with his parents) was working at a Municiple Gas company in New England. The had the guys they had to pay anyway to collect the food waste dump it into brick domes they called Methane generators instead of paying someone else to build it into a land fill. Then instead of paying to connect to a pipline and pay by the cubic foot etc they sold the gas they generated themselves from the product they now pay someone else to get rid of which defrayed the cost of picking up the garbage and lowered the cost of running the city.

He said it raised the cost of natural gas considerably when they went on the pipline instead of generating their own and the whole thing was a bit of corruption that hit the entire nation.

Was he looking back eighty or so years through rosey colored glasses? I don't know for sure but he was very confident on this one and spoke as an MIT Class of 1927 Engineer.
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Old 06-05-2008, 05:01 PM   #7
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There is a little of good news on the horizon. A south dakota town and voted to build a new refinery, telling the whiners and congress to kiss this. A man in utah who owns many oil wells is also paying to build his own in green river, utah. Again telling the whiners and congress to kiss this. But it takes five years for one refinery to come up on line. Who knows what will happen in the mean time.
As for a total shutdown sgtjoe it would take the entire world 7 to 10 days of shut down to have any effect. One country would take 30 days of continuous shutdown. Will you pay all the wages for those in the US to shutdown for a month?
Last we need to stop pampering ourselves and suffer the pains of high interest and get the dollar back up to being worth more than 50 cents on the world markets. In 1975 the dollar was worth 2.50 cents on the world markets. Thats sad to loose that much.
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Old 06-05-2008, 06:15 PM   #8
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MtManLee;

Since there is currently and in the foreseeable future no shortage of gasoline in the US, in your opinion, where will the gasoline from the new refiners go???
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Old 06-07-2008, 12:12 AM   #9
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If Iran gets reduced to Persian kitty litter by Israel as has been threatened we may all be riding bicycles like they do in India.

I would store gas in gigantic underground oil storage bunkers in the Mid West and plant corn on top. We can live with less oil, but we have to have whiskey so we don't feel the pain.
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Old 06-07-2008, 05:33 AM   #10
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Today we get gasoline from other countries. Its not all refined here in the US. We can become independent of OPEC if we were to build the refineries to handle our own oils. If we were to become independent our prices would not be based on OPEC and the oil prices. Right now we are buying refined oil/fuels from half a dozen countries. But if you like making others rich from our sufferings than so be it.
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Old 06-08-2008, 04:29 AM   #11
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Just out of curiosity, if a new oil well is drilled in South Dakota or a new refinery is built in Utah, why would a barrel or gallon of product produced by either be sold at less than world market prices? If you owned either, would you sell at a discount?

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Old 06-08-2008, 05:14 AM   #12
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With additional oil available to the market along with additional refining capabilities, in a normal free market I'd expect the prices to decline due to the added supply that would be offered to meet the demand.

If the prices escalate as the demand exceeds the supply it stands to reason that if the supply started to out pace the demand then prices would decline.
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Old 06-08-2008, 05:48 AM   #13
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Economics 101 aside, my question stands as posed - would you sell at world market prices (whatever they may be, higher or lower than today's) or at a discount? Here's something to consider - if you build that refinery in Utah and don't own the crude oil coming in, you'll be buying your feedstock. That feedstock requirement will actually increase North American demand for crude oil. Now, if you pay market price of $135/bbl, that's $135/42 gallons per barrel = $3.21/gallon for the crude oil. Now, you have to refine it, sell it to any independent wholesalers who will transport it to station owners (both of whom have to make a profit), then the station owners must add federal and state fuel taxes to get the selling price.

By the way, far more is in effect in today's market pricing than supply and demand. Recently, U.S. demand has actually dropped as prices (crude and distilled products) continued to rise. The world market price for crude oil jumped by double digits in one day after Israel threatened to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities - actual supply and demand didn't change significantly overnight. The only thing that changed was the commodity traders' speculation regarding what might happen to future worldwide supply.

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Old 06-08-2008, 08:59 AM   #14
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The discussions about the world market is very interesting. One interesting fact about pricing involves BioDiesel that is made in the North West. It is being exported to Asia as they are willing to pay more for the product including the shipping costs.

World wide inventories and world wide consumption plus the impact of the US finacial situation on the value of the dollar is our downfall. I attibute a good portion of our situation on our greedy lenders who are now paying a big price along with the rest of us!!
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