Is GM the tip of the iceberg?

[whalepirot]

15 years ago, I saw, in huge letters, General Motors Headquarters, and had an immediate, eerie sense of the future of the company I used to buy from.


The building is in Pudong, China, across the river from Shanghai.

[radar]

Originally Posted by nothermark

I agree it's changed, that's why I looked before saying anything.



I live in western NY but the same holds true for a lot of places. We can easily do a long day trip south of I-90 but not to the charging station that they finally put in on the southern tier expressway by whatever number it is. There are a lot of opportunities to get gasoline or diesel but no charging yet. Without looking I suspect a lot of the country is that way as it was when I looked before. As I said, a cross country trip is reasonable but long local day trips not so much.

Yah not everywhere has the same amount of buildout. Good on you for knowing about the plugshare app and website. Just a heads up though. If you get an EV and are relying on plugshare data for a road trip make sure you also check the Networks App. Eg, EVGo for EVGo site or chargepoint for chargepoint sites etc. Plugshare is pretty good but it is crowd sourced so not always up to date. If you buy a Tesla the car will know, no worries.

At a local level businesses are starting to figure it out. A hotel without level 2 overnight charging is no longer even a consideration for an EV driver. Most business hotels have it figured out and have or are adding multiple level 2 charging sites. Level 2 J1772 is compatible with ALL electric vehicles although the physical port may need an adapter depending on the vehicle. Tesla’s come with the adapter. We had to buy ours.

We see more and more restaurants also adding J1772 level 2 sites. Kind of a loss leader to get you in the door. Better than printing coupons for half off meals etc.

[tcg]

I thought GM posted a billion dollars in profit last quarter.

Times are tough.

Another case of not enough profits, investors want a bigger return, guess who suffers?

That tax cut really worked out well for the little guy. Who'd a thunk?

[nothermark]

Originally Posted by tcg

I thought GM posted a billion dollars in profit last quarter.

Times are tough.

Another case of not enough profits, investors want a bigger return, guess who suffers?

That tax cut really worked out well for the little guy. Who'd a thunk?

Actually it's a sign that times are good. Auto sales and profits are up, the slow sellers are the small "fuel efficient" cars that folks are passing up to get one of those evil SUVs.



If you look at the fuel economy numbers on many of the smaller SUV's they look as good as the small sedans did a few years ago. Between that and room for the kids/groceries it makes sense. If you just want a stuff hauler try and find a small hatchback these days. The last I looked they were non existent. At least they are not shifting production off shore...

[Solo_RV_Guy]

Originally Posted by Jay D.

the Tesla has a range around 250 to 350 mi. if I take a 500 mi. overnight trip i'm going to have to find a charging station, not easy. i can jump in my Cady and gas up and cruse home. its going to be many years before this country sees adequate charging systems to serve these cars. the more electric cars the more charging stations needed.
I can see GMs reasoning, no cense building cars that won't sell.
Jay D.

Most people don't drive 500 miles in one day in their personal auto, perhaps except for a vacation or for a destination that cannot be conveniently reached by flying. That's what we do in our RVs, right?


But for folks still working and who drive 100 miles a day or less, electric is sensible. Those people are not like us - they do not travel full time nor do they frequently take extended trips.


I too recall what happened when gasoline hit $4/gallon back in the Dick Cheney administration - folks couldn't buy small vehicles because of low inventory and production. A Suburban would sit on a dealer lot unless it was at fire sale price. When gas prices stabilized under $3/gal they started selling again.


It's not that there is no public appetite for electric vehicles, to the contrary. The Tesla Model 3 can't be built fast enough. GM's problem is their dealers were pretty much clueless, almost no dealers stocked even a single unit to demo and GM did virtually nothing to promote or market their electric vehicles.


Like most things in life this is not a single-cause issue.

[Dutch Master]

Hello Fellow RVer's
Very good discussion on GM, Tesla, charge stations, etc.

I would like to "bring back the group/discussion" as to the economy as the original post "Is GM the tip of the iceberg"

Lets take a look "at the big picture" here.

1. Unfortunately, the results of the big tax reduction for corporations did not result in research/investment/expansion of their companies. They decided to buy back their stock shares and distribute the wealth to the top executives. They did not reduce their corporate liability (i.e. loans). Thus now that the tax cut funds are spent, they are in bad shape, since cheap loan money is gone and rates are going up. Thus corporate debt is at a all time high.

2. As one of the posters stated that many people refinanced their homes and spent the money. Thus personal debt is at a all time high.

3. Many families are facing large/huge medical bills for one reason or another - no medical insurance, high deductibles, and high prescription costs.

4. "Real Wages" - i.e. raises have hardly met inflation or cost of living.

5. Although the unemployment is at a all time low, many of these jobs hardly pay enough to sustain the burden of raising a family.

6. The trade war is starting to take effect. Yes there are a few "winners" of this, but mostly losers - just look at the number of farmers starting to go bankrupt. This includes GM buying steel and aluminum at the new higher tariff price.

Thus adding these and other economic factors, these companies are going to wonder "where are the customers and why are they not banging on our door?" They simply cannot afford to go out buying products and services.

Yes the stock market has been on fire, but closely listen to the analysis about a "correction" coming - 10~ 30%. Some are even talking recession. Our economic challenge along with the other counties having debt difficulties, add up to some bad time coming.

These are not political statements but facts! Please if you do not believe these statements, research, research, research each and every statement. Do not simply rely on TV pundits. Read articles by Market Watch, Bloomberg, Financial Times, etc. which have an extensive team of highly respected individuals that take time to investigate their findings.

Best Regards
Dutch Master
2008 Newmar Kountry Star 3950, Cummins ISL 400HP, Spartan K2 Chassis, 2014 Chevy Captiva

[MRUSA14]

I really don't understand those that are angry with GM over these plant closings. Are they supposed to keep producing cars that customers won't buy? GM did not do this out of choice, but out of necessity.

[nothermark]

A couple of things. The first is that as has been said in other discussions about EV's there is no disagreement that folks usually travel relatively short distances to work so a range of a couple hundred miles would be fine. The issue is what they do other than work where 4-500 mile trips are normal. It's the weekend play trips that define the car purchase.


I did some research. Once I waded through the bashing the President articles I found this description of what is going on:


https://www.fb.org/market-intel/bank...s-farm-country


It appears that the amount they are up is relatively small compared to the normal level of farmers who get over extended and use the Bankruptcy laws to restructure debt. A significant amount of their debt is for real estate as taxes and purchase prices for more land. From the bit that I know from when I lived in farm country this is not new. 60 Years ago they were talking about 80 acre family farms. With the increased size of equipment and changes in farming practice they are now talking about acreage in the thousands depending on the crop and location. The average size is smaller but most of those are part time farmers. Some farmer has to go under for the other farmers in the neighborhood to get more land to keep their expensive equipment payments up. It's been a continuing cycle for a long time.


More on topic I am a small car fan. I grew up driving a Ford Anglia. The last 3 cars I owned were small cars and my retirement vehicle is a Ford Ranger. I keep getting pestered by local dealers to buy another car so I look occasionally. From what I have seen Ford and GM have never built a good small car in this country. The big foreign makers like Toyota and Hyundai tried upsizing their product like the American junk and walked away from the small hatchback haulers that a lot of us enjoyed when they were available. As a result I am not surprised that there are poor sales in the small sedan market.



What I find interesting is that GM and VW are now both planning on jumping into the EV mix when Tesla is way ahead of them on vehicle and factory development and are close to hitting the point where the tax breaks end and the states start charging for mileage or something else to make up for lost fuel tax. That should be interesting to watch. Mabe Tesla will buy and refurb on of those plants in the east that is closing. I bet they would get a good deal on taxes. ;-)

[5spd97]

I think that GM is reacting to the market demand and like Ford, sees a decline in demand for certain lines. I dont think that Tesla or electric cars have much bearing on the issue. I've been a car nut my whole life and I always wondered why someone didnt make a car based on the big sedans of the 30's and 40's. Lots of room inside, high seating position, good visibility. What do you know...they finally did...the SUV. Comfortable upright seating, good visibility, easy access in and out. Its a better design and everyone is recognizing it, whether its a big Tahoe or one of the small SUV's, thats where the future is. Electric cars are another discussion in my opinion. Tesla sedans are a fraction of the total sedan market. Fusions, Altimas, Accords, Camry, etc., all sell in the tens of thousands a month, Tesla isn't even an honorable mention. And to be clear, Im not knocking Tesla, its just that I dont think that Tesla is having much impact on GM or Ford decision makers right now.

[radar]

Originally Posted by 5spd97

I think that GM is reacting to the market demand and like Ford, sees a decline in demand for certain lines. I dont think that Tesla or electric cars have much bearing on the issue. I've been a car nut my whole life and I always wondered why someone didnt make a car based on the big sedans of the 30's and 40's. Lots of room inside, high seating position, good visibility. What do you know...they finally did...the SUV. Comfortable upright seating, good visibility, easy access in and out. Its a better design and everyone is recognizing it, whether its a big Tahoe or one of the small SUV's, thats where the future is. Electric cars are another discussion in my opinion. Tesla sedans are a fraction of the total sedan market. Fusions, Altimas, Accords, Camry, etc., all sell in the tens of thousands a month, Tesla isn't even an honorable mention. And to be clear, Im not knocking Tesla, its just that I dont think that Tesla is having much impact on GM or Ford decision makers right now.

Hmmm. Tesla Model 3 was the number one selling American made car in the USA in September. Not electric car, any car. And this is just the model three and doesn’t include the model S or X.


http://https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/08/tesla-model-3-is-1-top-selling-american-car-in-usa/

[lrsses]

Yes Ford will be next as the Demand is once again SUV and Trucks. But use caution not ten years ago American was buying large SUV’s and Trucks and next thing gas was up to over three per gallon across the National and some at 4.00 plus. So wonder just how long the price of gas will be cheap and the demand will be smaller car better mileage?

[Cooperhawk]

Dutch Master I live in farm country and don't know of a single farmer in financial trouble as you claim. Most are doing extremely well in fact. There may be some doing so for tax purposes however. Most of neighbors are buying land as fast as they can.

As for GM, I know, no politics, but do take a look at who the CEO is and her background. You may become enlightened.

It seems like every time we go to town they are breaking ground on some new enterprise. Help wanted signs all over the place, wages on the rise, building new houses as fast as they can.

Look around.

[PJStough]

Originally Posted by Cooperhawk

As for GM, I know, no politics, but do take a look at who the CEO is and her background. You may become enlightened.

So you are saying that if GM had a different CEO they would be keeping these plants open, even though they are losing money?

[nothermark]

I think he is saying GM is not losing money. They may be moving plants. The EV connection is that they are going to shift to EV's instead of the small sedans. Those will take both more research and new/repurposed facilities. That sounds like GM might be shopping for new locations and a new workforce.