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Old 04-15-2008, 06:03 AM   #1
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A 6.7 TEMBLOR PREDICTED TO HIT WITHIN 30 YEARS, STUDY SAYS
Article Launched: 04/15/2008 01:32:00 AM PDT
Calamitous quake in California now near certain

While death and taxes are said to be life's only certainties, on Monday California scientists added another calamity to that list: earthquakes.

There is a 99.7 percent chance that a major temblor will strike the Golden State in the next 30 years, according to the first comprehensive study of the state's earthquake risks.

"The sobering thing to me is we've never seen anything like a 99 percent probability before," said Tom Parsons, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park. "That's not a number we throw around a lot."

Surprisingly, Monday's study also found the odds of a magnitude 6.7 quake are nearly identical for Northern and Southern California. Researchers had long assumed that the southern half of the state was at significantly higher risk.

A magnitude 6.7 quake is capable of killing scores of people and causing billions of dollars in damages to homes and businesses. California has had more than a half dozen of them in the past 30 years.

The 1994 Northridge earthquake was a magnitude 6.7 and it killed more than 50 people, injured more than 7,000 and left 20,000 people homeless in Southern California. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, which felled a portion of the San Francisco Bay Bridge and delayed the World Series, was not much larger - a magnitude 6.9. It resulted in 63 fatalities and $6 billion in damages.

Scientists have known for some time that a "Big One" is likely to occur here...

I thought this was interesting because of the 99.7% they are using.
How does one prepare for an earthquake??
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Old 04-15-2008, 06:03 AM   #2
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A 6.7 TEMBLOR PREDICTED TO HIT WITHIN 30 YEARS, STUDY SAYS
Article Launched: 04/15/2008 01:32:00 AM PDT
Calamitous quake in California now near certain

While death and taxes are said to be life's only certainties, on Monday California scientists added another calamity to that list: earthquakes.

There is a 99.7 percent chance that a major temblor will strike the Golden State in the next 30 years, according to the first comprehensive study of the state's earthquake risks.

"The sobering thing to me is we've never seen anything like a 99 percent probability before," said Tom Parsons, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park. "That's not a number we throw around a lot."

Surprisingly, Monday's study also found the odds of a magnitude 6.7 quake are nearly identical for Northern and Southern California. Researchers had long assumed that the southern half of the state was at significantly higher risk.

A magnitude 6.7 quake is capable of killing scores of people and causing billions of dollars in damages to homes and businesses. California has had more than a half dozen of them in the past 30 years.

The 1994 Northridge earthquake was a magnitude 6.7 and it killed more than 50 people, injured more than 7,000 and left 20,000 people homeless in Southern California. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, which felled a portion of the San Francisco Bay Bridge and delayed the World Series, was not much larger - a magnitude 6.9. It resulted in 63 fatalities and $6 billion in damages.

Scientists have known for some time that a "Big One" is likely to occur here...

I thought this was interesting because of the 99.7% they are using.
How does one prepare for an earthquake??
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Old 04-15-2008, 07:02 AM   #3
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And for those that live in California......

6.7 TEMBLOR PREDIJERON PARA GOLPEAR EN EL PLAZO DE 30 A├ĹOS, ESTUDIE DICE El Art├*culo Lanzado: 04/15/2008 temblor calamitoso de 01:32:00 PDT en California ahora cerca de seguro Mientras que la muerte y los impuestos ser├*an las ├║nicas certezas de la vida, en los cient├*ficos de lunes California agreg├│ otra calamidad a esa lista: terremotos. Hay una ocasi├│n de 99.7 por ciento que un temblor importante pulsar├í el estado de oro en los 30 a├▒os pr├│ximos, seg├║n el primer estudio comprensivo de los riesgos del terremoto del estado. "la cosa sobering a m├* es nosotros nunca ha considerado cualquier cosa como una probabilidad de 99 por ciento antes," dijo a parsons de Tom, sism├│logo con la encuesta sobre geol├│gica ESTADOS UNIDOS en el parque de Menlo. "que no es un n├║mero lanzamos alrededor mucho." Asombrosamente, el estudio de lunes tambi├ęn encontr├│ las probabilidades de un temblor de la magnitud 6.7 es casi id├ęntico para California norte├▒a y meridional. Los investigadores hab├*an asumido de largo que la mitad meridional del estado estaba en un riesgo perceptiblemente m├ís alto. Un temblor de la magnitud 6.7 es capaz de cuentas de la matanza de la gente y los mil millones el causar de d├│lares en da├▒os a los hogares y a los negocios. California ha tenido m├ís que una media docena de ellos en los ├║ltimos 30 a├▒os. El terremoto 1994 de Northridge era una magnitud 6.7 y mat├│ a m├ís de 50 personas, da├▒adas m├ís de 7.000 y a la izquierda 20.000 n├│madas de las personas en California meridional. El terremoto 1989 de Loma Prieta, que felled una porci├│n del puente de la bah├*a de San Francisco y retras├│ la serie de mundo, no era mucho m├ís grande - una magnitud 6.9. Dio lugar a 63 fatalidades y a $6 mil millones en da├▒os. Los cient├*ficos han sabido por una cierta hora que "el grande" es probable ocurrir aqu├*... Pens├ę que esto era interesante debido a los 99.7% que est├ín utilizando. ┬┐C├│mo uno se prepara para un terremoto??
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Old 04-15-2008, 08:36 AM   #4
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Good one Tom!!!

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Old 04-15-2008, 05:25 PM   #5
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">How does one prepare for an earthquake?? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Move.
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Old 04-15-2008, 06:21 PM   #6
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Sad but true



<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Tom N:
And for those that live in California......

6.7 TEMBLOR PREDIJERON PARA GOLPEAR EN EL PLAZO DE 30 A├ĹOS, ESTUDIE DICE El Art├*culo Lanzado: 04/15/2008 temblor calamitoso de 01:32:00 PDT en California ahora cerca de seguro Mientras que la muerte y los impuestos ser├*an las ├║nicas certezas de la vida, en los cient├*ficos de lunes California agreg├│ otra calamidad a esa lista: terremotos. Hay una ocasi├│n de 99.7 por ciento que un temblor importante pulsar├í el estado de oro en los 30 a├▒os pr├│ximos, seg├║n el primer estudio comprensivo de los riesgos del terremoto del estado. "la cosa sobering a m├* es nosotros nunca ha considerado cualquier cosa como una probabilidad de 99 por ciento antes," dijo a parsons de Tom, sism├│logo con la encuesta sobre geol├│gica ESTADOS UNIDOS en el parque de Menlo. "que no es un n├║mero lanzamos alrededor mucho." Asombrosamente, el estudio de lunes tambi├ęn encontr├│ las probabilidades de un temblor de la magnitud 6.7 es casi id├ęntico para California norte├▒a y meridional. Los investigadores hab├*an asumido de largo que la mitad meridional del estado estaba en un riesgo perceptiblemente m├ís alto. Un temblor de la magnitud 6.7 es capaz de cuentas de la matanza de la gente y los mil millones el causar de d├│lares en da├▒os a los hogares y a los negocios. California ha tenido m├ís que una media docena de ellos en los ├║ltimos 30 a├▒os. El terremoto 1994 de Northridge era una magnitud 6.7 y mat├│ a m├ís de 50 personas, da├▒adas m├ís de 7.000 y a la izquierda 20.000 n├│madas de las personas en California meridional. El terremoto 1989 de Loma Prieta, que felled una porci├│n del puente de la bah├*a de San Francisco y retras├│ la serie de mundo, no era mucho m├ís grande - una magnitud 6.9. Dio lugar a 63 fatalidades y a $6 mil millones en da├▒os. Los cient├*ficos han sabido por una cierta hora que "el grande" es probable ocurrir aqu├*... Pens├ę que esto era interesante debido a los 99.7% que est├ín utilizando. ┬┐C├│mo uno se prepara para un terremoto?? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
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Old 04-16-2008, 04:41 AM   #7
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All the more reason to get out and go camping MORE.........

Times a wasting!


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Old 04-16-2008, 07:43 AM   #8
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I don't live in California and I am not a worrier just thought the high % was interesting.

BTW I agree with you about Hiltery or the "Messiah of Change" ever occupying the White House


<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Gossen:
Apack,
No need to worry too much.
If you live in California you have to accept that you will be in Earthquakes.
I was in the Northridge quake. Unless you were within a pretty narrow radius you were largely unaffected.
Which is the point..... California is a VERY BIG STATE. To presume that an earthquake is going to happen in a major metropolitan area would be a mistake.
Even if there is a 99.7 percent chance of another 6.7 mag quake the chances of it happening in a rural area or even offshore are far more likely.
When you combine the fact that for a 6.7 mag earthquake to produce major damage (in the USA) that the epicenter needs to be very close if not exactly under a major metropolitan area the odds of you or yours being involved in the event go way down. Like less than being involved in a tornado. Most of these statements are used to obtain extra FEMA funding. Same with the global warming crew. It is a "chicken little" approach to obtaining/securing research funding.
If you are a worrier then there are far more scarier things looming out there. Like Obama or Hillary ever becoming president or gas prices going over 200 a bbl.
Don't sweat the quakes. Just enjoy that beautiful CA weather and take a few strokes off the game.

MG </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
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Old 04-16-2008, 09:35 AM   #9
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The dude that predicts earthquakes is the same dude that told us we would suffer 17 'killer hurricanes' in 2006!

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Old 04-16-2008, 12:33 PM   #10
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Being a professional self-unemployed skeptic, I wonder... ... if one were to go back and do the math, how often has there been an earthquake of 6.7 or better in CA? From the data recited in the article along, it was only from 1989 to 1994 that there were two 'big' ones. Way under the 30 span. From the limited search I did of 'major' ones, it is hardly wild speculation or necessary to enlist the help of 'scientists' to figure out that there will be another 'big' one in CA... and within 30 years!

1857 @ ???
1868 @ ??? (Considered the 'big' one until 1906)
1872 @ ???
1892 @ ???
1899 @ ???
1906 @ 6.8 (estimated)
1915 @ 6.2, 6.2
1918 @ 6.8
1922 @ 7.3
1923 @ 7.2
1925 @ 6.8
1927 @ 7.1
1932 @ 6.4
1933 @ 6.4
1940 @ 7.1
1952 @ 7.3
1971 @ 6.6
1980 @ 7.2
1987 @ 6.7
1989 @ 6.9
1992 @ 7.2
1992 @ 7.3
1999 @ 7.3
1999 @ 7.1
2003 @ 6.6
2005 @ 7.2, 6.6

based upon data from: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/...historical.php

Now I want to know how much this group got from the government to come up with their 99.7% chance figure. I can only hope it was the State of CA Government's funds.
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Old 04-17-2008, 08:03 AM   #11
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Whatever happens don't relay on FEMA to provide a trailer for homeless to live in. I've seen the trailers provided for Hurricane Katrina and Rita.
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Old 04-17-2008, 12:51 PM   #12
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There have been OVER 50 earth quakes just outside of Reno over the California state line within 48 hours....

and they are still going on as of the date of this post..

They range between 1.plus and 3.plus

And a couple, of months ago eastern Nevada had a serious quake that destroyed a lot of a town.

So hang on to your hats folks...

We Nevadians are hoping that California will break off from the mainland and float away...

I've got a few ocean view lots for sale to first come, first served..
so don't wait... call me today get in on the ground floor of America's newest seashore community..


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Old 04-18-2008, 10:16 AM   #13
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And the 5+ quake today was in the southern IL,IN,IA area. These climate/disaster ?EXPERTS? are funnier than heck! Expert, my fanny! We can no more pedict the foibles (or control) of the earth than we can predict random motion.
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Old 04-18-2008, 12:06 PM   #14
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I live in Big Bear Lake, CA about 15 - 20 miles from the san Andreas fault. In '93 we had the twin Landers Big Bear Earthquakes 6.8 and 6.4 about hours apart. My daughter was in the Northridege quake. We lived in Bakersfied at the time and felt Coalinga, Northridge and Landers. The largest quake in the lower 48 occurred near Bako in the 50's in Tehachapi a 7.3.

The last two weeks or so we have been having swarms of small eq's including yesterday. If yo go to this site there is a map of quakes in So. CA over the last few days:

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

So what I am saying is quakes here are normal and part of everyday life. The big ones are also pretty normal. The Northridge quake caused $30 billion in damage ad most was repaired in months. After Northridge they completed the infrasructure earthquake retrofits in CA.

The Big Bear Dam, almost 100 years old has been retrofitted to withstand a quake in the 8's.

All of the recent quakes have been in thrust faults, not the San Andreas. Until BB Landers those involved in EQ had little knowledge or awareness of the thrust faults but the Petroleum Geologists did and all of these were mapped. Santa Monica Blvd. for example follows on top of a thrust fault.

Saying we are going to get a 7.3 within the next 30 years is a lot like saying the Mojave desert will get rain with the nex 30 years.

What they haven't said is how does the huge number of thrust fault quakes effects the San Andreas - the so called potential Big One. Some say they are reducing the overall stress of the San Andreas.
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