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Old 12-09-2012, 06:15 PM   #29
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I have deleted a few more off topic posts. The topic is fiscal cliff -portfolio strategies.

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Old 12-09-2012, 06:41 PM   #30
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I am By no means a professional nor do I think I am, Most " professionals" will tell you stay in market don't try and time it, Just exactly what are they doing?, on a minute by minute basis, I say don't kid yourself the last time I rode it out per say, it cost me a bundle, I now have it all back and then some and I'm keeping it,at least most I hope. I moved 80% to safe, 10% bonds and 10% large cap, dont know if this is right or wrong but I feel better anyway, of course I would have slept in a Holiday Inn last night, but I don't have to......
I respect your opinion. Just cant figure it out!
I have timed the market since 87. Missed the down, caught the up, every time.
I have been my own broker since 87.
When you lost, I stayed even. When you "came back" I was way ahead of you.
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Old 12-10-2012, 05:03 AM   #31
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I really don't expect the (so called) fiscal cliff to have much of an effect on the average person.
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Old 12-10-2012, 05:08 AM   #32
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I really don't expect the (so called) fiscal cliff to have much of an effect on the average person.
Stock market????????? Average people and 401k plans
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Old 12-10-2012, 06:58 AM   #33
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Stock market????????? Average people and 401k plans


I just don't see the fiscal cliff as being as big a deal as the news reports suggest.
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Old 12-10-2012, 07:12 AM   #34
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We have no debit. But... anybody who rushes to pay something off early in this economy might think again. We have re-positioned ourselves to a more commodity based economy. The large debit will inevitably cause inflation which will in turn discount any debt that a person (or government) might have.

Precious metals are artificially low at this moment. Gold actually went down! The preferred strategy among our advisers and friends is to own something real. This is not the time to invest in companies or corporations but a good opportunity to gain by owning pork bellies and bauxite.
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Old 12-10-2012, 07:54 AM   #35
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This is not the time to invest in companies or corporations but a good opportunity to gain by owning pork bellies and bauxite.
Agree with one exception. Speculate on but please do not take delivery of pork bellies if you live next door. Laughing but really please...
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Old 12-10-2012, 12:12 PM   #36
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I'm not changing the investment philosophy I have used for the last 15 years. "Don't be greedy and try and time the market. Be satisfied with holding no-load mutuals that are in the top 20% of all funds".
Worst year was 2001 at -14.5% but had a +32.3, +37.6, +8.6 just prior. 2003 - 2007 stay in a range of +15 to +18% ROI.
Then the reality of cutting income while increasing off budget spending kicked in and 2008 was -23%.

Rather than trying to direct my personal investments I am trying to STRONGLY encourage my representatives to not go over the cliff as there will be ripple effects on the US credit rating and the market in general that will erase whatever gains we have seen over the past 47 months. I also tell them to stop playing politics and actually do the work they were elected to do which is to govern and not simply sit on their butts.

Note I retired in 2007 but am trying to limit withdrawal from my self directed IRA to about 3.5%
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:37 PM   #37
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Agree with one exception. Speculate on but please do not take delivery of pork bellies if you live next door. Laughing but really please...
Okay!

Owning and possessing biological commodities such as pork bellies should be separate in this case.

I agree.
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Old 12-11-2012, 01:40 PM   #38
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Okay!

Owning and possessing biological commodities such as pork bellies should be separate in this case.

I agree.
Just a comment/observation.....

How many people do you actually know that are trading commodity options and contracts?. I'm sure the fiscal cliff has some bearing on the price of hog production somewhere, but knowing whether to go long or short on a futures contract for 40,000lbs of frozen pork bellies at a strike value of US$ 0.8500 delivered Jan. 01/13.... seems a bit sophisticated for most of the people I know.

Regardless, I did discuss it with the boys here at the RV Park this morning over coffee and it was a general consensus that we'd take a long hedge by purchasing an offsetting futures contract at 0.7200 p/pound....this would give us a potential gain of 0.1300 p/pound and a potential profit of $2,800 based on our initial investment of $2,400. Needless to say we're bearish on pork bellies!

Everybody's in....sure hope I'm right or we'll be leaving here around 3am on the Dec. 31/12.
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Old 12-11-2012, 02:21 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Jack1234

Just a comment/observation.....

How many people do you actually know that are trading commodity options and contracts?. I'm sure the fiscal cliff has some bearing on the price of hog production somewhere, but knowing whether to go long or short on a futures contract for 40,000lbs of frozen pork bellies at a strike value of US$ 0.8500 delivered Jan. 01/13.... seems a bit sophisticated for most of the people I know.

Regardless, I did discuss it with the boys here at the RV Park this morning over coffee and it was a general consensus that we'd take a long hedge by purchasing an offsetting futures contract at 0.7200 p/pound....this would give us a potential gain of 0.1300 p/pound and a potential profit of $2,800 based on our initial investment of $2,400. Needless to say we're bearish on pork bellies!

Everybody's in....sure hope I'm right or we'll be leaving here around 3am on the Dec. 31/12.
Might I suggest a refrigeration truck and skip the bellies. Do as above but go for bacon. So many uses, so much bacon, so little time.
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Old 12-12-2012, 08:29 AM   #40
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With all this discussion, it might be advantageous to direct our broker to buy a call on some pork heavy mutuals, thereby offsetting the necessity for storage or even any need for actual acquisition.



Considering our location all I really care about this winter is which taco sauce is "mucho picante". Who makes Tums? Bristol Myers?

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Old 12-12-2012, 09:01 AM   #41
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I can tell you some of the strategies we have come across with our clients. Some are selling their entire gain portfolios before the end of the year and then buying them back. They will pay the tax at 15% and now they have a higher basis against the expected higher capital gains taxes down the road. If you are concerned about the wash sale rules, those only apply to loss sales, not gains.

Another strategy has to do with installment sales. For those clients who have closed on installment sales this year, we are going to extend their tax returns until October to see what the "new" Congress does with rates and the law. If the capital gains rates go up then we will recognize all the gain this year. If they don't go up then we will use the normal installment sale rules. Where it gets tricky is with clients that have installment sales prior to 2012. Do we recognize all the gain this year with the idea that rates will go up or do we hold off with the idea that rates will remain the same? No answer to that question right now.

At a minimum we will have additional taxes due to the new health care law. For that reason alone we are looking at accelerating income into 2012. Where it gets dicey is what to do with deductions. If rates go up then a deduction is worth more in 2013. However, if they limit itemized deductions, then the expense is worth more in 2012.

It is a very slippery slope we tread on these days. We have very few answers to very many questions.
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Old 12-12-2012, 05:28 PM   #42
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I can tell you some of the strategies we have come across with our clients. Some are selling their entire gain portfolios before the end of the year and then buying them back. They will pay the tax at 15% and now they have a higher basis against the expected higher capital gains taxes down the road.
Exactly......me and the other guys in the morning coffee club have been wanting to invest in pork bellies (bacon) for years, but our wives have always nixed the plan.......something about bacon contributing to hardening of the anterior cruciate ligaments & cardio vascular rotator cuffs. They insisted that we invest in fruits & vegetables......so we all piled our money into rosaceae (apple) stocks.

Well these Apple stocks have done very, very well over the past couple of years ....what with the development of new hybrids based on the "i" sub-family. As a result, we've all accumulated some pretty sizeable capital gains. With the uncertainty....or perhaps with the certainty of where capital gains taxes are headed ...what with the fiscal cliff & trillion dollar deficits.......we've been piling outta this stock for the last couple of months.

On the other hand, I don 't imagine anyone else is dumping their "fruit" stocks just because of a little uncertainty with the tax code. Ya think?
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