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Old 12-05-2012, 02:08 PM   #1
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The Fiscal Cliff - Portfolio Strategies

Let me say at the outset - my purpose in opening this thread is NOT to start a bunch of political finger-pointing. Rather, I'd like to hear from some of the super-smart investment gurus here on the forum what their portfolio strategies are as we approach the fiscal cliff. Is this the time to turn turtle, lock in the YTD gains and sit in cash until this situation resolves itself or are there opportunities out there to be realized by remaining invested should we sail over the edge?

Rusty
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Old 12-05-2012, 02:54 PM   #2
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Unless the earth spins off its axis, never to return, it's a short run event. As always, no sale, no loss. I have no plans to adjust anything at this time. There are plenty of unknowns that exceed the duration and severity of downside risk here. As someone nearing retirement I'm already conservatively positioned - constantly paying principle down on MH (only debt) and adding to savings, maxing 401k contributions.

No matter what happens my cash is in place to full time in '14 - the only variable is the payoff on MH. My payment plan is to do in 16 months what the bank wants me to do in 15 years. No way - cliff - curb - or slope are they gonna see that interest. It's an early retirement so if it takes 18 or 19 months so be it. If you think this is going to be a mid or long term drag on the market - watch for a dip and buy gold. If you're young look at annuities and getting your retirement income as tax free as ya can. The 401k lets you get a employer match but you pay for it in ordinary income tax at unknown future rates. I'm no financial planner but tax free income is a good thing. A pile of gold is too. And don't forget to gift me $13k to cut down on your taxes. Your mileage may vary.
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Old 12-05-2012, 05:40 PM   #3
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My finance guy says this will be a short term event and that most likely everything will be kicked down the road. The real danger, says he, is 5 years down the road.
It can't go on forever.
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Old 12-05-2012, 06:02 PM   #4
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I'm no guru, but taxes have to go up somehow...and that doesn't bode well if you're still working.

I'd also be real careful about stocks or funds invested heavily in defense or the government sector. Some type of significant cuts are coming in the federal sector and t can't help but hurt those companies heavily tied to government spending.
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Old 12-05-2012, 06:55 PM   #5
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I'm optimistic, things are looking up, taxes will go up, tax rates will go up, government spending will go up, entitlement spending will increase, and health care costs will increase. Add inflation and investment opportunities abound.

Seriously, about the optimism--- it's almost impossible to anticipate what the economy is going to do and where to be. I think the "fiscal cliff" nonsense is political kabuki at it's worse. It has harmed any progress toward recovery and not knowing what to expect will continue to harm the economy. But in reality Baraff is probably right, the can kickers will prevail and nothing change rapidly, and the cliff will become the old fiscal slippery slope....
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Old 12-05-2012, 07:01 PM   #6
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If I sell now just to keep from having to pay a higher CG's tax that might come, where do I stick that cash...in a savings/MM account that's making a fraction of a fraction of a percent?? Or, sit tight, ride it out & get my dividends (avg'g 3.99%) I've currently got coming.

I'm sitting tight. Although I have tightened my stop-losses to preserve my profits should there be another free-fall.

Lori-
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Old 12-05-2012, 07:31 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baraff
My finance guy says.... The real danger, says he, is 5 years down the road.
It can't go on forever.
Did ya ask him how many decades he's been saying that?
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Old 12-05-2012, 07:44 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Hooligan View Post
I'm optimistic, things are looking up, taxes will go up, tax rates will go up, government spending will go up, entitlement spending will increase, and health care costs will increase. Add inflation and investment opportunities abound.
You forgot to add the world is ending on 12/21. Do you suppose it's gonna blow UP?
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Old 12-05-2012, 08:46 PM   #9
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When my ears burn, I sell the high risk stuff. Buy low, sell high still works!
I listen to my broker. Oh yeah, that's me!
Ya can't lose if ya ain't playin, and gaining on the up tick beats going through the crater every time.
I have only one rule: NO GREED!

(Just profit).

Just sayin.....
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Old 12-05-2012, 09:06 PM   #10
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My Father and I bought a small amount of stock in 1948 and I have been buying a little here and there ever since. I buy dividend paying, large company stocks selling products folks will need. Energy (oil and natural gas), health care and mining (lead, coal, gold, silver, copper, etc) Companies must pay 2.5% dividend per year and increse dividends annually. I have had more good years than bad....basically, I buy and let them cook....I don't buy a stock unless I plan on keeping it five years or more....it has worked for me.....

I have gathered some cash recently and will buy when the folks sell due to the "cliff" scare. I closely watch housing foreclosures...when they go up, folks are in trouble...loosing their jobs, etc... stock buying oppertunities follow.... Just my humble opinion.
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Old 12-05-2012, 09:14 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyJC View Post
Let me say at the outset - my purpose in opening this thread is NOT to start a bunch of political finger-pointing. Rather, I'd like to hear from some of the super-smart investment gurus here on the forum what their portfolio strategies are as we approach the fiscal cliff. Is this the time to turn turtle, lock in the YTD gains and sit in cash until this situation resolves itself or are there opportunities out there to be realized by remaining invested should we sail over the edge?

Rusty
I'm self-directed and money is in sheltered IRA's. I'm long on about 60% and move in and out on the other 30% to 40% Normally I keep 5% to 10% in cash. I bumped my cash up to about 40% just prior to the election. Since the election I've put some money back into equities. I took advantage of the dips and repurchased a few stocks at a nice discount to the price I sold. One I didn't re-buy has gone up about 8%. Oh well you can't win them all.

If we do go off the cliff, it will leave a bruise, but if you don't panic and sell, it will come back. May take a quarter or two but it will come back. If you have cash it may be a great time to buy. That's my plan.

Advise from a friend .... Do your research and buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.
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Old 12-05-2012, 09:22 PM   #12
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I lost so much in stocks

I got some still in it, some in gold, a good chunk in a Annuity (but Im a young 29)
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Old 12-05-2012, 10:29 PM   #13
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[Moderator Edit] We are lucky up here as U can buy private reits for free(no commissions in or out) no ;lock in etc and get 9% ROC= return on capitol so the 9% income is almost tax free till you get your ignitial investment back
no growth but great for retirement income with no risk.
put in 2 million and get $180K PY income
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Old 12-05-2012, 10:33 PM   #14
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Off-topic posts have been deleted or edited. The topic is "financial strategies", so please keep your comments on topic. Thanks.
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