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01-13-2025, 08:36 AM
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#1
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Member
Join Date: Oct 2021
Posts: 98
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A "No-Brainer" Decision
So we visited a major Newmar dealer in south FL and got focused in on a new 2024 NA...figuring it wasn't much different than a new 2025 model and could save us some decent dollars.
When it came time to negotiate the dealer basically wanted to give me the same discount (percent off MSRP) as the 2025 model making both models just a few thousand different than the other.
What buyer in their right mind would pay the same price for an expensive coach a model year older??? The sales manager said he couldn't sell "below cost" was his excuse for no deeper discount. I've concluded he wants to play the waiting game in getting some help from Newmar if this model is still there when the 2026's come out later this year.
Oh well, some things are not meant to be.
__________________
ArkRVHog
2018 Forester Model 2801 QSF
Katy, TX
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01-13-2025, 10:27 AM
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#2
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Member
Commercial Member
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 167
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Good morning ArkRVHog,
From where I sit you made the right decision in walking. I’m sure many will roll their eyes at me saying that as a competing dealer, and I’m equally certain my comments won’t sit well with many others in the industry as well. And, what I have to say is worth exactly what you’re paying for it, so please take my comments as FWIW.
Once a new coach sits on a dealer’s lot long enough for it to have a Book Value on it, it is commonly referred to as a “Lot Queen.” So, the question is… what is a Lot Queen worth? Like every dealer we have years of experience with “Lot Queens.” Very rare is the year a dealer can time a model year change over to where they have no prior year models at the moment the new model year units are arriving. The difference is we are obsessed with data and markets at NIRVC. So, here’s what we have learned from the data we have kept over the years, and use as a guideline in pricing prior year new models.
For the 10 years from 2014 through 2023 Lot Queens have sold, actually transacted at, Wholesale Book Value plus 3%. The 3% is the value the market places on the manufacturer’s warranty. Unfortunately, after the record breaking Covid years, manufacturers didn’t cut their run rates fast enough, which led to record breaking overbuilding and inventory levels. And, overbuilding not only devalues the new overbuilt inventory, it also DEVALUES EVERY COACH ON THE ROAD! As a direct result, for the past 6 months the market has dropped for both used coaches and new Lot Queens. Almost 10%! The market for Lot Queens, the price where they are actually transacting at, is Wholesale Book Value MINUS 7.62%.
Using your post as an example, the Wholesale Book Value for a 2024 New Aire is $366,050. Now, subtract 7.62% and the market value for that 2024 New Aire is closer to $338,157. No doubt your dealer will scoff at that number and hold out for a “greater fool.” But, there isn’t enough “greater fools” to make a market of any size, which is why I have always subscribed to “your first loss is always your best loss.” As much as I love the lifestyle, 39 years and counting, I have loved the lifestyle in spite of the machine. These machines don’t appreciate (except during Covid), plus the flooring meter continues to run for the dealer.
As some point the motorhome market will bottom, and by definition the bottom will be when supply and demand are in equilibrium. Again, FWIW, after completing our 2025 Market Projections, I believe the motorhome market will bottom in February of 2026. Give or take a month or two. However, markets are always forward looking, and you will see prices bottoming out a few months before February 2026. Meaning, prices will be higher in a market at equilibrium than they will be several months beforehand when there’s still more supply than demand. Bottom line, this will turn from a buyers market to a sellers market a few months prior to February 2026. And, it could bottom even sooner demanding on how long the new Administration's economic policies take to work their way into our economy.
I know you didn’t ask for my opinion, but I hope it is of some help to you in trying to navigate the current market.
Onward,
Brett
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01-13-2025, 10:43 AM
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#3
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Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2021
Location: Annapolis
Posts: 695
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Its great to see someone with actual industry experience and quantitative numbers provide an informed opinion. Thanks
My only insight into the industry is viewing the dealer lots were there's absolutely no room to park another unit.
__________________
2018 Thor Freedom Elite 24
on 2016 Sprinter Chassis
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01-13-2025, 11:20 AM
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#4
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Member
Commercial Member
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 167
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Thank you Paul_D,
I’ve always found the industry’s views/pricing on Lot Queens to be nonsensical. For example, we placed our orders for our Music City Motorhome Expo last month for model year 2026 coaches. The 2024 New Aire mentioned by the OP is just a couple of months away from being two model years old!
Here’s why I find the industry’s logic nonsensical. Would you agree to order, take delivery of, and pay for a 2026 New Aire today, but agree to let me deliver it to you two years from now?
Onward,
Brett
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01-14-2025, 08:24 AM
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#5
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Member
Join Date: Oct 2021
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrettDavis
Thank you Paul_D,
I’ve always found the industry’s views/pricing on Lot Queens to be nonsensical. For example, we placed our orders for our Music City Motorhome Expo last month for model year 2026 coaches. The 2024 New Aire mentioned by the OP is just a couple of months away from being two model years old!
Here’s why I find the industry’s logic nonsensical. Would you agree to order, take delivery of, and pay for a 2026 New Aire today, but agree to let me deliver it to you two years from now?
Onward,
Brett
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Thank you once again Brett for your experienced perspective backed up by real data and analysis. Another industry ruse is how they consider the wholesale value of your trade-in as their starting "number" but when you ask what the same number would be for their lot queen it's crickets.
Fortunately my wife and I weren't emotionally invested in this 2024 unit as that's when the dealer really has you where they want you and better financial decisions get very muddled! We have a top tier dealer closer to our home base we really hope to do business with.
__________________
ArkRVHog
2018 Forester Model 2801 QSF
Katy, TX
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01-14-2025, 09:26 AM
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#6
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Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2024
Location: Bohemia NY
Posts: 1,893
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There are other considerations for purchasing a "Lot Queen" As these coaches are sitting in inventory they are ageing. Tires and batteries especially. In addition, the batteries are getting abused, especially if rig does not have power. The engines are sitting or getting short cycled. Often coaches are jump started and then allowed to idle to charge batteries or the generators get hours. Basically, these coaches are aging and getting abused. This is even worse for used coaches. As I have been looking for a long time before buying my Nimbus last March, I still see coaches for sale that were for sale back then. How does one justify a rig for sale for a year or two?
__________________
Dennis
Bohemia NY
2008 Nimbus 342 SE Carlyle
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01-14-2025, 04:47 PM
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#7
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Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 282
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Interesting to see an expert like Brett be so open and upfront. Getting back in the market I have noticed a few lot queens in inventory. A couple even being 2023 vintage. I was curious what those are actually worth? As a previous poster mentioned there are a lot of risk with a stale coach so the discounts need to be aggressive. At some point the either have to take their medicine or become a Newman museum.
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01-28-2025, 03:37 PM
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#8
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Junior Member
Join Date: Jul 2023
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 4
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Great overview Brett
__________________
Henry Laik & Linda Kruse-Laik
2013 Dutch Star 4344
2019 Jeep Wrangler 4Dr Sahara Unlimited
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01-29-2025, 08:15 AM
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#9
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Junior Member
Newmar Owners Club Spartan Chassis
Join Date: Dec 2024
Location: WI
Posts: 4
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It is time to make an Offer
Back in early 2018, I made an offer on a Lot Queen for a used 2016 DS 3736, everything on that coach was what I would have ordered if I was going to order a new coach, color, interior, and so on. I had a 2005 Beaver coach at the time and was looking and here it was the motor home that I was waiting for. I called the dealer and made a cash offer of 220K on a motorhome of which they were asking 295K, they said no but they kept calling me back and lowering the price, after about 2 months, they came to 225K. I told my wife that was a great price and told her we should take it at that price. I was very busy at my company and did not call them back, the next day they called me and said they would take 220K, so waiting the extra day saved me 5K. Why am I sharing this, two reasons, first I have learned that there is more to a purchase than the money, it needs to be the right coach. Why would anyone buy a motorhome if the cabinets were say too dark but the price was right,
for the exterior color, say too dark or too light, a color you really don't care for? I have friends who own coaches that they would prefer to be different but the price was right and they have to live in it that way. Living with a coach that is exactly what you like brings a better sense to one's enjoyment as we live out our life. So for both my wife and I, we have totally enjoyed our DS 3736 from NIVC both as a great buy and was the exact motorhome we were looking for. Second Brett is right, it is now a buyer's market, make the dealer an offer and walk away until they accept your offer, that is IF it is the perfect coach for you. That is my feelings on owning a Coach, it is more than the money, even though it is important it is also about the Joy it brings as we age in it. Curently we did something similar to this a month ago but I did not beat the dealer up on the price, why because it was the right color both inside and out everything we liked on a 2023 MA 4110. Maybe the reason I did not haggle was my wife has stage 4 metastasized breast cancer in her bones and I want to spend quality time making great memories with her while I can.
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01-29-2025, 08:37 AM
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#10
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Senior Member
Fleetwood Owners Club Freightliner Owners Club Spartan Chassis
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: FORT WORTH, TEXAS
Posts: 3,017
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArkRVHog
Thank you once again Brett for your experienced perspective backed up by real data and analysis. Another industry ruse is how they consider the wholesale value of your trade-in as their starting "number" but when you ask what the same number would be for their lot queen it's crickets.
Fortunately my wife and I weren't emotionally invested in this 2024 unit as that's when the dealer really has you where they want you and better financial decisions get very muddled! We have a top tier dealer closer to our home base we really hope to do business with.
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I think it would be intersting to get a price from NIRVC to compare to your local dealer.
Bill
__________________
2008 Newmar Mountain Aire
450 HP Cummins ISM 4000MH Allison Trans.
Towing a 2014 Honda CRV with a Blue Ox tow bar.
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01-29-2025, 09:24 AM
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#11
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 47
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One more factor that hasn't been mentioned here is that more than likely there is a reason a unit becomes a "Lot Queen" in the first place. It could be missing an option that most everyone wants like heated floors, or even a dishwasher for that matter, or it could be in a color combo that isn't as desirable. my point here is, this same anomaly that is causing it to get passed over will rear it's ugly head again when it's time for you to sell or trade it. Everything sells for a price, just make sure you get it right going in...
And yes, I realize a dealership can add an item such as a dishwasher, but not into any coach I would buy. Too many opportunities to get it wrong.
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