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Old 05-23-2020, 11:29 AM   #1
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True state of the diesel pusher marketplace....

my purpose here is to simply crowdsource opinions from my fellow newmar diesel owners and prospective buyers.....

in the wake of the (insert the way you describe it here) Virus, we all hear theories on the direction of the RV/camper market, from both non owners, and owners.....from dealers, from salespeople, from the financial media, etc etc....each has an angle....each has an interest, financial or otherwise, that can cause bias....

it is one thing to say "camping is going to see surge", as folks perhaps move to entry level towables and lower cost drivables, as alternatives to flying/hotels/air BnB, etc etc.....but higher end pushers ?

so, what is your opinion of where the pusher market is headed, in these times before a vaccine / reliable antiviral ?
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Old 05-23-2020, 11:59 AM   #2
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I believe it will be growing. It may be a long time before things are back to normal (if ever). While people could start in a TT, 5er, or gasser when you are doing this for a long time and/or taking long trips, lots of advantages of a DP that will keep people moving that way. We decided to start camping 3 years ago with a TT. After 6 month we we got a gas Class A and 4 months ago we got our Ventana DP.
The very low interest rates also make a DP more affordable
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:05 PM   #3
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I think it will be as usual... no change. You either want one or don't. You can either afford one or not. You're either a weekender or vacationer or one who uses it a lot. You can either afford the extra cost of fuel and maintenance or not.
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:09 PM   #4
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I think it will be as usual... no change. You either want one or don't. You can either afford one or not. You're either a weekender or vacationer or one who uses it a lot. You can either afford the extra cost of fuel and maintenance or not.
Agree. I donít think any one area will see a major surge. Perhaps in entry level gas class a/c but I think the higher end market will probably stay the same.
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:11 PM   #5
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With all due respect, DPs currently represent such a small percentage of the overall RV market that they are almost too few to model with trends. According to RVIA data, Class A MH's of all types comprise 3-4% of total RV sales (which, in total are ~10% of RV sales). To put that in numbers, in March there were shipments (to dealers) of ~3,400 Class A MH's out of total RV shipments of ~100,000 units. https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...nts-march-2020

I would speculate that of these 3,400 MH's shipped DPs represented somewhere between 500-1,000 at most. That's such a small number, I'm not sure that market trend data is all that meaningful. When you're dealing with what amount to luxury goods (MSRP >$200k) I think it's difficult to generalize on what drives the market. JMO
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:07 PM   #6
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I stopped by the local dealer two days ago and spoke with two of the employees. They said they're moving coaches as usual (primarily diesel pushers). They said two people had placed their DP's on the lot for consignment, but picked them up stating they didn't want to fly anywhere and will be using the coaches.

I got a feeling it will be tough to get sites this summer in the popular places.
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:29 PM   #7
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I'll give my 2 points:
I'm optimistic of a widely-available vaccine by next summer, so there may be a brief downturn before vacationing returns to normal.

In Brett Davis' video, he mentioned how Class A DP demand closely follows the S&P 500. When people are feeling wealthy from their investments, they splurge on expensive rigs.

So I think the key question is... where will the stock market be over the next few years??
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:37 PM   #8
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I think international travel is going to be down for a while. Those vacation $$ are going to want to go somewhere. At least some of that disposable income will find its way to motorhomes.
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:40 PM   #9
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I have a slightly different perspective. We recently went shopping for a Ventana but ended up buying a Bay Star Sport. Thatíll always be unusual but there are so many really nice alternatives to DPs these days that I think the market for them may shrink some. Not the really high end ones probably but the more common ones. The Super Cís have a lot going for them and the new Ford gas engine and chassis is a big step up for the gas Class Aís. The new Mercedes is pretty impressive as well for people who want to downsize to a B or C class. SO many nice options these days!
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Old 05-23-2020, 03:25 PM   #10
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Hi - We are on the cusp of some major changes. A generational change which likely doesn't fair well for big pushers. Financial changes, but the smoke hasn't cleared enough to guess that one out. Technological changes that, no matter what, will re-create the concept of the class A coach.

Bottom line is tomorrow will not look like today but it's not clear how that will effect sales or what will be for sale.


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Old 05-23-2020, 08:40 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutch Star Don View Post
I stopped by the local dealer two days ago and spoke with two of the employees. They said they're moving coaches as usual (primarily diesel pushers). They said two people had placed their DP's on the lot for consignment, but picked them up stating they didn't want to fly anywhere and will be using the coaches.



I got a feeling it will be tough to get sites this summer in the popular places.


I thought so too Don. However, finding a lot of cancellations for European travelers using companies like El Monte Rents and such have opened up more availability of RV sites. We just canceled our trip to Alaska and going to Polson for a month instead. No issues with finding places to stay.
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Old 05-23-2020, 10:47 PM   #12
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Almost no one is flying these days. I suspect that most folks won't fly until the covid vaccine is available and not even then maybe. Hertz just filed for bankruptcy. I think that RV travel is gonna go way up because hotels are nasty, even the 4 star ones. Whereas with a Class A DP you're basically bringing your house with you. No restaurants because you cook; no worries about bedbugs and covid because only you and the family is in the MH; and your own private bathroom! Since I started RVing, the private bathroom is a huge plus for me. So I do think RVing is gonna go up, not down. However, I can tell you now, I can't afford 400k dollars for a new DP!
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Old 05-23-2020, 11:47 PM   #13
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......
So I think the key question is... where will the stock market be over the next few years??
What good is the stock market if you can't have fun with it. I am not having any fun with my 'safe' investments.

On a whim I bought stock a major RV manufacturing company. Up 40% in a month.

BIL is heading for Colorado when he retires and no longer has to worry drug testing. He was telling me it was now big business so also on a whim I invested $100 in a pot stock. Up 90% in two months.
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Old Yesterday, 03:00 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Dutch Star Don View Post
I stopped by the local dealer two days ago and spoke with two of the employees. They said they're moving coaches as usual (primarily diesel pushers). They said two people had placed their DP's on the lot for consignment, but picked them up stating they didn't want to fly anywhere and will be using the coaches.

I got a feeling it will be tough to get sites this summer in the popular places.
Weíre heading to Florida next month and every state park is completely booked.
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