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Old 01-29-2017, 11:42 PM   #15
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I don't factor in all the toys - however the coach is definitely a "big ticket" item - and new enough that it's worth more than "residual value" at this point. As such - I go through the effort to include it in my reports. Other "big ticket" stuff like cars are omitted from my statements.
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Old 01-29-2017, 11:54 PM   #16
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A couple of others things to note, first off NADA and real world selling prices on any given model may not be the same. I know with the specific model of motorhome that I bought that the NADA value did not reflect the real world market. I shopped for about 5 months before buying, inquired on many ads across the country and found that NADA was not only well below the asking price, but in nearly every case I found well below the actual selling price. In general the only examples I found selling for anywhere near the NADA price were ones with visible water damage or other major deficiencies.

As to the used market in general terms that there is a steep drop off in value then a flattening of price between the 10 and 15 year age point. I attribute this the the lack of lenders that will finance RV's over 10-12 years of age and therefore the smaller potential pool of buyers.
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Old 01-30-2017, 12:25 AM   #17
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OK, if you are figuring 25% in the first year an 15% per year after, it would be like this--
New $288k, 1 year $216k, 2 $183.6k, 3 $156k, 4 $132.5k, 5 $112.75k, 6 $96k.
The way I figure it, it's what you have paid for entertainment. If spread over all the years you travel and see new sights, is it worth it? Yes! some can, others can't. Have fun, and live life.
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Old 01-30-2017, 03:28 AM   #18
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As to the used market in general terms that there is a steep drop off in value then a flattening of price between the 10 and 15 year age point. I attribute this the the lack of lenders that will finance RV's over 10-12 years of age and therefore the smaller potential pool of buyers.
Interesting analysis, Isaac-1. With the lack of lender financing after a coach is over 10-12 yrs old, I would have thought that the value curve would decline more precipitously after that. Could an argument be made that a flattening of price after 10 - 12 yrs is due to the fact that the price has now fallen to a point where a larger pool of potential buyers can now afford a MH? For example, you could buy a lovingly maintained 12-yr old Newmar DS DP for less than the cost of a new Suburban. I wonder if any demographic studies have been done in the RV industry to identify the pool of potential buyers in raw numbers at various price points and MH ages? I am almost certain that the industry has done that for new MH's. However, the number of under 30' 2015 and 2016 unused Thor and SOB entry level Class A's sitting on dealer lots is stunning. I keep forgetting that it is all about the monthly payment for most folks at that price point.
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Old 01-30-2017, 03:51 AM   #19
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[QUOTE=jlazar;3436928]I am having trouble understanding how to calculate depreciation on a new motorhome.

I too, tried my hand at this when considering a new MH.
Observation #1: There are too many exogenous variables.
Observation #2: The result of the process is rather depressing.
Observation #3: If you are concerned about depreciation on a MH for more than just grins and giggles, you should not purchase one. If you focus too much on $$$, you will not enjoy the "having." If I was to achieve room temperature tomorrow, my son would have a very nice inheritance. That is not my plan. Being in my late 60's, I see too many of my friends and relatives beset with health issues which limit their ability to travel. Do it now.
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Old 01-30-2017, 04:30 AM   #20
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You may want to check with PPL in Houston, TX for the actual sales price of the motorhomes they have sold in the past 12 months. Obviously, this isn't the answer to your depreciation schedule question, but it will answer the question what someone paid for a specific make, model and year. If the MSRP is $400,000 and someone paid $288,000 and 5 years later the same make, model and year motorhome sold for $144,000, it's depreciated over 64% of initial MSRP or 50% of actual purchase price.
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Old 01-30-2017, 06:53 AM   #21
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jlazar-

We used to own a Class C made by a custom manufacturer. [That means "MSRP" or "New" pricing is fixed and known.] Some members of their user community analyzed sale prices and came up with the values below. My review of the calculated values is that they are not to far off- for that manufacturer's product. As others have noted, many factors affect pricing.

An effective way to get an idea of pricing is to select a few coaches and track their pricing on the big Internet sales sites. After a few months you will have a seat-of-the-pants idea of what people are asking. Knock that down by 10 percent or so and that's probably close to the selling prices.

Code:
New             100%
1 year old       91%
2 years old      83%
3 years old      75%
4 years old      68%
5 years old      62%
6 years old      57%
7 years old      51%
8 years old      47%
9 years old      43%
10 years old     39%
11 years old     35%
12 years old     32%
13 years old     29%
14 years old     26%
15 years old     24%
16 years old     22%
17 years old     20%
<edit>Note that "tizzyfit's" hypothetical example in post #20- a five year-old coach selling for 64% off MSRP- closely matches the value from the table of 62%. Then again, it's just a hypothetical!</edit>
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Old 01-30-2017, 10:31 AM   #22
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I did this analysis/exercise Aug 1, 2015 when I was looking to purchase.
Like it or not I used NADA. My philosophy was that it make not be correct but if it is wrong it will most likely be consistently wrong. I was looking for a % per year to apply to my model. I took into consideration depreciation from MSRP, increase in MSRP per year, likely discount off MSRP and high and low NADA values. I used the latest data for a brand and model coach (Bounder 35K, Allegro 36LA, Georgetown 378TS). Latest data would be for the most recent 4 or 5 years, whatever was available as some coaches only had 4 years of data.
The highest depreciation was 16.5% and the lowest was 5.7%
The Bounder was the most consistent depreciation and also the lowest MSRP increases year over year and Tiffin being the highest in both categories.
The analysis may not be perfect but close enough for government work (or in my analysis)...
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Old 01-30-2017, 11:08 AM   #23
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What exactly are folks trying to calculate? Many of the posts seem to be trying to correlate depreciation with market value - when in fact they're two very different things.
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Old 01-30-2017, 11:22 AM   #24
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Interesting analysis, Isaac-1. With the lack of lender financing after a coach is over 10-12 yrs old, I would have thought that the value curve would decline more precipitously after that. Could an argument be made that a flattening of price after 10 - 12 yrs is due to the fact that the price has now fallen to a point where a larger pool of potential buyers can now afford a MH? For example, you could buy a lovingly maintained 12-yr old Newmar DS DP for less than the cost of a new Suburban. I wonder if any demographic studies have been done in the RV industry to identify the pool of potential buyers in raw numbers at various price points and MH ages? I am almost certain that the industry has done that for new MH's. However, the number of under 30' 2015 and 2016 unused Thor and SOB entry level Class A's sitting on dealer lots is stunning. I keep forgetting that it is all about the monthly payment for most folks at that price point.
What I found in my shopping once I had narrowed the potential pool down to a few models that were built from 1995 - 2009 was that once you crossed the 15 year mark condition became the major factor, secondary factors may include engine horse power, color schemes, etc. To narrow that down even more if we take a model that went mostly unchanged except for minor cosmetic issues from 2001 - 2005 with the 2001 model then being 15 years old, I found typical prices at roughly $16,000 for 2001, $17,500 for 2002, 29,000 for 2003, $34,500 for 2004 and $39,000 for 2005 models. Sure this was a limited pool with maybe 2-5 for each model year, but there is a very noticeable trend here. There were also a few outliers at both end. I also found the weaker engine less well appointed predecessors to this model from 1997-2001 selling for only slightly less with the cheapest at around $12,500. This above lists discounts units that had obvious deficiencies.
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Old 01-30-2017, 11:53 AM   #25
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All vehicles depreciate. I've spent 3x as much on vehicles as houses. If you buy new, depreciation in very high. If you buy used, maintenance is high. You can over think these subjects.
Buy what you like, can afford and go enjoy. Life's too short.
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Old 01-30-2017, 12:08 PM   #26
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All vehicles depreciate. I've spent 3x as much on vehicles as houses. If you buy new, depreciation in very high. If you buy used, maintenance is high. You can over think these subjects.
Buy what you like, can afford and go enjoy. Life's too short.
agreed! and there is no way to 'predict' depreciation, over time the 'market' will decide what the value is for items, but future predictions are just conjecture and guesses and usually not actually correct when the 'time' actually arrives.
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Old 01-30-2017, 12:58 PM   #27
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What exactly are folks trying to calculate? Many of the posts seem to be trying to correlate depreciation with market value - when in fact they're two very different things.
I think by the OP's post #10 he's trying to determine if a private seller's asking price is reasonable. I could be incorrect, though.
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Old 01-30-2017, 01:11 PM   #28
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Given this is purely fictional calculation I'll offer what I do when evaluating this type of thing.

50% the second I drive it off the lot.
10%/year each year of ownership till year 5
5% per year after that.

If I still had it at year 10 I'd write it off completely to zero.

Yes this is a harsh way of looking at it but it protects from the rose coloured glasses effect when looking and buying euphoria takes over our otherwise intelligent souls. Our coach when sold in 2013 and bought new in 2008 was about right on that range. We had planned on owning it for at least 10 years but after 5 seasons our desires changed. Because we hadn't ignored the risk of reality we were prepared for the true worth of the coach as it sold. Yes I wanted more and yes I felt ultimately burned a bit. But reality has a way of ignoring emotions and only offering a hard truth.
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