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paddler1954 · 10-23-2018, 10:55 AM

A few months ago I read an article saying diesel fuel cost will be going up. The article said possible as high as $10/gallon. The reason for the increase is because all (world wide) merchant ships are being switched over from bunk oil to diesel. Here in the states most of our refineries produce 70% gasoline and 30% diesel/jet fuel/heating oil.

Our refineries will not be able to meet the demand of the merchant ships thus prices will skyrocket. Today on TV, I heard a brief conversation about the merchant ships beginning the transition to diesel fuel. So this is happening.

If you are considering selling your diesel RV, now is your window of opportunity to get a reasonable price. If you wait till spring, in my opinion, you will probably not do so well.

Your thoughts?

dsattler · 10-23-2018, 11:36 AM

If it gets to $10 a gal you can kiss the RV industry goodbye (along with the rest of the economy) imo

Easyrider · 10-23-2018, 11:40 AM

That would also mean the cost of fuel for merchant ships would also go up about 4 times what it is currently, so I don't see the sense in switching over for them.

brandss · 10-23-2018, 11:40 AM

Not sure about the validity of this but, If it is true we won't have just RV's to worry about, you can worry about every aspect of the economy, and the world wide economy.

MonacoMan84 · 10-23-2018, 11:42 AM

If diesel reached that price, imagine the cost of goods!!! The trucking industry etc....

From what I've read most fleets plan to use LNG or alternative fuel source and not diesel..

MonacoMan84 · 10-23-2018, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easyrider

That would also mean the cost of fuel for merchant ships would also go up about 4 times what it is currently, so I don't see the sense in switching over for them.

From what I understand it's being mandated as a result of stricter emissions standards....

barmcd · 10-23-2018, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paddler1954

A few months ago I read an article saying diesel fuel cost will be going up. The article said possible as high as $10/gallon. The reason for the increase is because all (world wide) merchant ships are being switched over from bunk oil to diesel. Here in the states most of our refineries produce 70% gasoline and 30% diesel/jet fuel/heating oil.

Our refineries will not be able to meet the demand of the merchant ships thus prices will skyrocket. Today on TV, I heard a brief conversation about the merchant ships beginning the transition to diesel fuel. So this is happening.

If you are considering selling your diesel RV, now is your window of opportunity to get a reasonable price. If you wait till spring, in my opinion, you will probably not do so well.

Your thoughts?

I'm not a marine expert, but I don't think they can convert enough "merchant ships" between now and spring to move the needle on diesel prices.

barmcd · 10-23-2018, 12:01 PM

It looks like the mandate begins in 2020 so we have a few years yet before we need panic.

From the Financial times: "Despite the concerns, the IMO says last year’s decision by member states was based on a review by consultancy CE Delft, which concluded that the refining sector would be able to produce sufficient low sulphur bunker fuel to meet the industry’s needs."

IMO is the United Nations International Maritime Organization and CE Delft is an environmental research group and think tank based in the Netherlands.

Old-Biscuit · 10-23-2018, 12:15 PM

USA is not the only refinery producing fuels
India----Venezuela----South Korea----Saudi Arabia----Iraq---Iran

$10 gallon for diesel...then gasoline and all other petroleum products will also increase substantially-----only so much 'product' can be refined from a barrel of oil

Global economies would collapse....chaos....End of Times

Hold onto your hat folks!

Sandy Swede · 10-23-2018, 12:31 PM

Do you suppose that you could locate the article to which you refer? Would be nice to examine the assumptions from a supply/demand perspective. For example, what is the world-wide consumption of diesel fuel for cars, trucks, buses, tractors, construction equipment, and current industrial diesel engines vs consumption of bunk oil for shipping. Can bunk oil be further refined into diesel? IMHO, there is enough elasticity in the supply of diesel fuel to negate drastic price increases such as the prognosticators in your article predict. However, even an increase to $5/gal would take the fun out of traveling cross country in something that gets 6 - 8 mpg.

creativepart · 10-23-2018, 12:31 PM

Before we build a scaffold to prop up the sky, it helps to know more about the upcoming changes.

Here's a good and seemingly balanced article from a Trucking and Transportation source - TransportTopics.com

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/will...ocean-shipping

Some say it will have a big impact, others say it's unclear exactly how much.

Jonathan Chanis, senior vice president of policy at Securing America’s Future Energy, a nonpartisan Washington-based policy organization concludes with the following: "Historically, the refining sector has always been able to rise to the occasion and work these all out, but there is a learning curve,” Chanis said. “It is not a foregone conclusion that this is going to be a smooth transition."

So, most are taking a wait and see approach. But no one in the article referenced above thinks diesel is going to $10 a gallon or even half that amount.

dennis45 · 10-23-2018, 12:38 PM

Sorry, I don't have time for this nonsense. I've got to go get a new fishing licence.

-BigRed- · 10-23-2018, 12:44 PM

They are not really switching to Diesel (since you can only get so much automotive diesel out of a barrel of oil) but ships use the leftover heavy oil after refining ("Bunker Oil"/Marine Fuel/ Fuel Oil) as their fuel.

The IMO's mandate is .5% sulfur marine fuel by March of 2020. Since they dont use automotive Diesel its not really going to effect prices too much. The only prices that will go up is the cost of Fuel Oil since it has to be further refined to get that sulfur count down.

lwmcguire · 10-23-2018, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsattler

If it gets to $10 a gal you can kiss the RV industry goodbye (along with the rest of the economy) imo

That is a fact

Might save Tesla

Be great for the Gun market as the entire world economy would tank except for the oil barons

Nothing to worry about at all and if we continue to build more goods here then less shipping as well for the things we want

Bunker C will just be refined further and sold as other products is what will actually happen