Community Forums

TucsonAZ · 06-20-2022, 06:22 PM

Just curious what you all think is driving the market right now and where it's trending. I have about a dozen tabs open on used early 2000s DPs and every few days I'll hit refresh to see how quickly it sold or whatever.

I've noticed this trend where it will start at $45k, then I hit refresh and it's at $40k, then $35k, then $30k and there it will sit for awhile.

Just curious if anybody else has noticed this and what the driving force is behind it. I mean, diesel is at $6 per gallon right now and I expect it to be over $7 in the next few months. I'm assuming it's basically because no matter how much cash you have $750 fill ups aren't for the faint of heart.

Just curious what you're all seeing out there.

Arch Hoagland · 06-20-2022, 06:31 PM

Went RV shopping with my daughter and her husband last Saturday.

Both lots we went to were completely full of new RV's and we were the only people looking.

This was in the Fresno California area which has a total population of about 1 million people.

I'm starting to think the RV boom is over.

Jim_HiTek · 06-20-2022, 06:32 PM

I've often seen that sort of thing when the fuel prices are volatile. Then there's dips in the economy where there are lots of layoffs and that also makes people nervous. I think it's 'change' that stops many from buying, and increases the owners desire to sell! before it's too late.

Unfortunately, whenever I'm ready to buy, I can never find what I want. Last time I spent over a year kicking tires and finally found something I loved, that checked all my boxes, at a Mesa, AZ used RV popup sales yard. Paid $5,000 more than it was worth...I was that tired of trying to find just the right RV. But this one, although it's had it's issues, has been great for me. Have owned it since '16.

Craig1960 · 06-20-2022, 06:42 PM

I was waiting for this and I'm like Jim sort of except while looking last time I got tired of going all over to look at them and finally bought one that was close to what I wanted for more then it was worth. :( I'm not really complaining because it's a good unit, just needs some tlc.

I think the prices will bottom out pretty quick but will also stay that way for quite awhile as well with everything opening up again, especially when it comes traveling by air again.

Nwcid · 06-20-2022, 06:59 PM

Fuel is just one part.

Rent is up, food is up, fuel is up, service are up, insurance is up.

Stocks are down, interest is going up, people are uncertain.

Not a good combination for purchasing new toys.

Next year will be a really good year for buyers.

jacwjames · 06-20-2022, 07:16 PM

This will be just the beginning. Happens every time there is a down turn in the economy, uncertainty, rising interest, yada yada yada.

In 12 months it will be even more of a buyers market

bigb56 · 06-20-2022, 07:21 PM

The class A sector did not experience as big of a surge in sales as the B & C classes or the towables and it's likely they will be the first to show some pullback, and normally I would think the pullback would be as moderated as the mild surge was however these fuel prices may push the big ones down more, and sooner. The B and C classes are still somewhat in demand and overpriced. My gut feeling is the biggest pullback will be the towables.

Kid Gloves · 06-20-2022, 07:23 PM

The cure for high prices is high prices.

The same demographic that was happily overextending themselves last year to buy a 20 year old MH, is now having second thoughts.

NCC-1701A · 06-20-2022, 07:28 PM

In a recent post in the Newmar Owners Forum, the owner of NIRVC had an exceptional analysis he did of the current market. Over 2/3rds of buyers do it on loans. Interest rates are and will need to continue to rise fast to slow economic activity and stifle inflation. That's a lot of cost to potential buyers and makes some ineligible for loans. If I'm a bank, I'm tightening my loan eligibility policies right now.

I keep track of one dealer's site and for a couple of months far more units have gone from "sale pending" to "available" again than has been normal over the last few years. Also, quite a few more units that aren't sold before the pictures are even up!

Thor's CEO announced they will be reducing output by 20% to avoid over building like happened in the last recession.

computerguy · 06-20-2022, 07:34 PM

Fuel, food, and EVERYTHING else rising at rates most of the people in the market for rvs have never seen before. That will scare most people. What goes up must come down. If you were looking to sell at the highs you have missed the boat. Better sell now because prices will be going LOWER.
My budget can't be raised by inflation this year of over 9%. So that means I need to keep my budget and simply buy less.
Last year my fuel cost averaged $2.82/gal. This year is over $4. That's 42%+ increase. I'll be driving 42% less miles.
Dining out is up 15% so I will be eating out 15% less.
I've traded down on grocery shopping. No more rib eye steaks, not even chicken. I've traded to pork as it is the most cost effective. I've also traded to frozen vegetables instead of fresh.
Recession is most likely going to happen in the next year or so.
It's the normal course of the business cycle. If you are smart you'll adjust. If not you're ripe for the old bankruptcy thing that happens with recessions.

TucsonAZ · 06-20-2022, 07:39 PM

Thank you all, this is mostly my line of thought on all of it, as well. I didn't know most people were on loans so I'm guessing the 0.75% rate hike this month will make things even worse. I'm paying cash which should help so I'll just keep my eyes open and remember time is on my side here.

Iceclimber · 06-20-2022, 07:39 PM

Supply and demand. Pandemic = slow to full stop in production of cars, trailers, Rv's, consumer goods you name it. Add in Tariffs. Now the rubber band is snapping back and full lots of new cars, trailers, Rv's etc are facing outrageous fuel prices and soaring interest rates. Patience will get you a good deal, and remember always pay cash for toys. Folks that sell their souls for something that depreciates like a rock will be giving up the RV dream to the bank. I'd be looking for big ticket pushers and boats in about 4-6 months.

paul65k · 06-20-2022, 08:49 PM

So here's one way to look at it;

Let's say you have a very nice say 2005 DP that was worth call it $75K-80K at the top. Now let's say you want to really upgrade, say to a Foretravel or other really high-end Pusher.

Well, the bummer is that your $75K motorhome will only be worth $50K when you go to sell.....OMG that's 1/3 of the price, but in terms of pure dollars that $500K Foretravel will most likely be down $125-150K by the time the dust settles so.................. the good news is you lose $25K to save $125-150K..... you gotta look for the silver lining

Prof_T · 06-21-2022, 03:20 AM

I will turn 63 in September. I've seen ups and downs in the market, boom times, bust times, stagnant times, high inflation, low inflation, boom growth, slow growth. Everything cycles. I just hope that folk highly leveraged on their RV loans stay employed. Retiring baby boomers and lower entrants into the job market will still squeeze employment. Still think recession is on the way. Until energy costs get in line inflationary pressures will continue.