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Old 07-10-2021, 06:46 PM   #29
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In regards to Bretz statement that there’s not a better time to upgrade your RV that’s only true in one sense and that is Jess you’ll get more for your use coach if you bargain but the price of a new coach will no longer be discounted the usual 20 to 30% off the listed price therefore there’s no such thing as a good time to buy an RV it’s only a good time, When it’s right for you and your budget currently the prices of any motorhome or just re-flat out ridiculous
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Old 07-10-2021, 07:06 PM   #30
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New Video from NIRVC Founder Brett Davis

QUOTE=Tagsgirl;5826464]In regards to Bretz statement that there’s not a better time to upgrade your RV that’s only true in one sense and that is Jess you’ll get more for your use coach if you bargain but the price of a new coach will no longer be discounted the usual 20 to 30% off the listed price therefore there’s no such thing as a good time to buy an RV it’s only a good time, When it’s right for you and your budget currently the prices of any motorhome or just re-flat out ridiculous[/QUOTE]

Translation (as best I can discern): “In regards to Brett’s statement that there’s not a better time to upgrade your RV, that’s only true in one sense. And that is just you’ll get more for your used coach if you bargain. But the price of a new coach will no longer be discounted the usual 20% to 30% off the listed price. Therefore there’s no such thing as a good time to buy an RV; it’s only a good time when it’s right for you and your budget. Currently the prices of any motorhome are just flat out ridiculous.”

My Comments: During a recent conversation with a well-placed individual within the NIRVC organization, we ended up discussing the current state of the market. He stated that while some [ moderator edit] sales people might be tempted to “swing for the fences” with regard to new coach asking prices, NIRVC plans to continue doing what they’ve always done with regard to fair pricing on new coaches.

To be clear, I’m just relating what I was told by a source I trust. If any of that is incorrect or misstated, I trust someone who works for NIRVC will post the appropriate corrections.
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Old 07-10-2021, 07:17 PM   #31
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I just postponed a new delivery for 4plus months. That’s a story for another conversation. After discussing with Brett, the only thing that will change is the value of my trade, which presently is holding its own, but may (probably) decline. A reasonable solution from my perspective.
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Old 07-12-2021, 03:20 AM   #32
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In regards to Bretz statement that there’s not a better time to upgrade your RV that’s only true in one sense and that is Jess you’ll get more for your use coach if you bargain but the price of a new coach will no longer be discounted the usual 20 to 30% off the listed price therefore there’s no such thing as a good time to buy an RV it’s only a good time, When it’s right for you and your budget currently the prices of any motorhome or just re-flat out ridiculous


Tagsgirl,

I’d like to start by thanking you for taking the time to watch my video. I’d also like to append the statements I made in the video, while at the same time attempting to answer questions raised by others as a result of your post.

I think it’s important to recognize I was speaking of two different markets… the used coach market versus the new coach market, and I’ll start with an update to both markets. Since this is an Entegra Forum, I’ll stick with Entegra throughout my explanation. The Winnebago Journey you own has a different markup from invoice to MSRP, sells at a different premium in the used market, and is in an all together different price range.

USED COACH MARKET:
Since the shooting of my video another NADA book change came out on 7/1/21, and the book value of the 2018 Anthem I used as an example in the video went up again (2.46%), for the 7th straight book change in a row! Over the past fourteen months a 2018 Entegra Anthem has APPRECIATED 10.75% when best case it should have DEPRECIATED at least 14%. Add to that 24.75% delta the 13.51% increase in the premium to Book value when selling an Entegra Anthem in today’s used market, you can see used Anthems are currently trading 38.26% above where they should be.

NEW COACH MARKET:
Since shooting my video Entegra has announced a 2.58% price increase for the 2022 Anthem effective 7/1/21.

The arbitrage between those two markets is now a net 35.68%

I’ll now address the bottom line of your post directly, which I gently interpreted to be… How do I as a current coach owner capture the full 35.68% arbitrage? The answer is you can’t. So, how close can you come to capturing the 35.68%?

I can’t speak for other dealers, and their current pricing policies, but I can address the pricing policies of the one dealer I am intimately familiar with. It’s worth noting, dealers are required by their Dealer Sales and Service Agreements with the manufacturer to advertise current model year coaches in accordance with the Manufacturer’s MAP price (Minimum Advertised Price). However, once a customer requests a price from the dealer, the dealer is free to quote any price it would like. But, the customer does have to ask first. So, advertised prices are set by the manufacturer, dealers set their own actual selling prices (what they’ll let the coach go for) internally for their sales people to see when they’re asked by a customer for a quote. From personal experience, those internal selling prices are set weekly in an Inventory Meeting, and are a fixed percentage over invoice for each model. Internal selling prices are not set as a discount to MSRP, but as a percentage over invoice in order to keep gross profit margins consistent, because manufacturers can, and do change the markup from invoice to MSRP. Now, would I be surprised to find dealers have increase their gross profit margins in this market by 2% or 3%? Not at all! They’re not quoting those increased margins out of greed, but rather to protect themselves against potential manufacturer price increases over the next four, five, or six months while the coach is being built. The dealer has already committed to a price with a customer at the time the retail sold order is placed, regardless of the length of time to manufacture the coach. However, the manufacturer is free to raise prices during the build as the cost of their raw materials increase. Are there dealers out there who have increased their gross profit margins in this market by 10%, 15%, or even more? I suspect their are, and clearly they’re not hedging against price increases. They’re being greedy, and their businesses will suffer the consequences over the long term. I believe coach owners have long memories, I know I do. I’ll end by saying, I know for a fact, 30%, plus discounts on new Entegra diesel coaches are still available.

When it comes to the value of your current coach, you’ll get the full retail value if you sell it on your own when purchasing your new coach. If you live in a state where you want to preserve your sales tax credit, you can always do an “In and Out.” You advertise your coach, you find the buyer, you negotiate your deal, and then you trade your coach into your dealer for $1,500 less than the price you agreed to with your buyer. You preserve your sales tax credit, the dealer gets $1,500 for processing, and overnighting the two titles. As you can see, you are getting the full retail market value of your coach, less $1,500. Now, if you don’t want to sell your coach on your own, you can always sell your coach on consignment for a fee. If you don’t want to consign, you can always trade your coach into your dealer, who will pay you less than what he thinks your coach will sell for. And, that’s because the risk, plus the time value of money just shifted from you to the dealer. Regardless, trade-in values are 24.75% higher today than they were a year ago today. To recap, you’ll get the most for your coach by selling it on your own. You’ll get the next most by consigning your coach. And, you’ll get the least amount if you trade-in your coach.

In closing, you can absolutely capture a minimum of 32.68% of the current 35.68% arbitrage. However, to say all dealers have completely eliminated the arbitrage, because they have reduced their discounts from MSRP by the entire 35.68%, is just a “bridge too far” for me to believe, and not at all what I’m seeing in the market.

Respectfully,
Brett Davis
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Old 07-12-2021, 07:49 AM   #33
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Hi - We just put in an order for a new Anthem and I can attest that the discount on the new coach was in line with the previous 10 new coaches we have bought over our 35 years of RVing. (29 to 31%). The trade value was higher than I anticipated and in fact more than we paid for our current coach 2 years ago. In short, this was one of the best times to trade discounting the long wait for the new coach to come off the line. Our prior experience has been with nearly all the major RV brands and multiple dealerships.

I had thought that this would be a good market and Brett's video is on the mark in this regard. Were there bottom feeder dealerships and hungry sales people? Yes, and you learn to thank them and leave. But they are there in all markets, not just this one.


Tom
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Old 11-25-2021, 12:22 AM   #34
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Good evening All,

On this Thanksgiving Eve I’ve had an opportunity to catch my breath, relax with a little free time, and catch up on some of my reading. As I was reading the most recent issue of one of my longtime favorite subscriptions on Financial & Economic news, analysis, and research, a thought was triggered. It took me back to the end of June when I was pulling together information to record the “RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE!” video. I label the following information as “Things that make you go hmmm…”

First, I’ll update the NADA Book Value of the 2018 Entegra Anthem I used as my example in the video, and then I’ll move onto the really bizarre.

The Mar/Apr 2020 NADA Book Value for a 2018 Entegra Anthem B was $239,350. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the same coach is $281,500. A whopping 17.61% increase in value over those 10 book changes (20 months)!!! A Motorhome appreciating at the rate of 10.57% per annum?! Let that sit on your tongue for a minute.

Now, let’s shift brands to a 2018 Newmar Dutch Star 4369. The Jan/Feb 2020 NADA Book Value for the 2018 Newmar Dutch Star 4369 was $235,100. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the same coach is $277,200. A whopping 17.91% increase in value over those 11 book changes (22 months)!!! Again, another Motorhome appreciating at 9.77% per annum.

FWIW, I’ve always taught my students there is a big
difference between “investing” and “speculating,” and the difference is:

An “investment” produces an income stream into the future, which a discount rate can be applied to in order to determine its current value. For example, income producing real estate, businesses (stocks), bonds, tolls, whole life insurance, annuities, etc. All these investments have different risk profiles and rates of return.

However, you are speculating if there is no income stream. Think gold, silver, currencies, cryptocurrency, commodities, etc.

My point here is… motorhomes don’t produce an income stream. They are not an investment. They’re a lifestyle. And yet, they are currently defying gravity and appreciating. Clearly, this isn’t sustainable over the long term, and I’d hate for anyone to think I’m suggesting such an absurdity by passing on this information.

Now to the really bizarre! The 45 foot Newmar Mountain Aire has a 500HP engine, and is built on the K3 chassis. The 43 foot Newmar Dutch Star has a 450HP engine, and is built on the K2chassis. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the Newmar Dutch Star 4369 is $277,200. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the Newmar Mountain Aire 4533 is $274,350. Yep… you read that correctly. The current market value of a used Dutch Star is more than the Mountain Aire for the same model year!

Regardless of the upside down world we’re currently living in, I wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving with your families, friends, and loved ones.

Onward,
Brett
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Old 11-25-2021, 12:32 AM   #35
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Thank you Brett. I found out today that my July 5th ordered Entegra Accolade 37L should be delivered to your Atlanta store next week. I'm looking forward to meeting your team and a smooth experience. NIRVC's (you) reputation is untouchable. Have a great Thanksgiving.

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Old 11-25-2021, 08:16 AM   #36
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Hi Brett - That was my experience this past summer when trying to decide on what coach to buy. Comparing the numbers between another Dutch Star or going to a MountainAire the numbers just didn't work, both in terms of resale and the new price value. The answer jumped out that if we wanted the upgrades the Entegra Anthem was the answer for us. (Little did I know it was going to be a 3/4 year wait).

I also entered a discussion with another board member about what the future of used coach prices were likely to be. Some folks think they will progress based on the high cost of new coaches. I think they will, much like the stock market, return to the averages over time. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on that aspect of the market a few years out.
We can't wait for our new Anthem and the NIRVC experience has been great so far.
Happy Thanksgiving back at you.
Tom
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Old 11-25-2021, 09:03 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by BrettDavis View Post
Good evening All,

On this Thanksgiving Eve I’ve had an opportunity to catch my breath, relax with a little free time, and catch up on some of my reading. As I was reading the most recent issue of one of my longtime favorite subscriptions on Financial & Economic news, analysis, and research, a thought was triggered. It took me back to the end of June when I was pulling together information to record the “RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE!” video. I label the following information as “Things that make you go hmmm…”

First, I’ll update the NADA Book Value of the 2018 Entegra Anthem I used as my example in the video, and then I’ll move onto the really bizarre.

The Mar/Apr 2020 NADA Book Value for a 2018 Entegra Anthem B was $239,350. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the same coach is $281,500. A whopping 17.61% increase in value over those 10 book changes (20 months)!!! A Motorhome appreciating at the rate of 10.57% per annum?! Let that sit on your tongue for a minute.

Now, let’s shift brands to a 2018 Newmar Dutch Star 4369. The Jan/Feb 2020 NADA Book Value for the 2018 Newmar Dutch Star 4369 was $235,100. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the same coach is $277,200. A whopping 17.91% increase in value over those 11 book changes (22 months)!!! Again, another Motorhome appreciating at 9.77% per annum.

FWIW, I’ve always taught my students there is a big
difference between “investing” and “speculating,” and the difference is:

An “investment” produces an income stream into the future, which a discount rate can be applied to in order to determine its current value. For example, income producing real estate, businesses (stocks), bonds, tolls, whole life insurance, annuities, etc. All these investments have different risk profiles and rates of return.

However, you are speculating if there is no income stream. Think gold, silver, currencies, cryptocurrency, commodities, etc.

My point here is… motorhomes don’t produce an income stream. They are not an investment. They’re a lifestyle. And yet, they are currently defying gravity and appreciating. Clearly, this isn’t sustainable over the long term, and I’d hate for anyone to think I’m suggesting such an absurdity by passing on this information.

Now to the really bizarre! The 45 foot Newmar Mountain Aire has a 500HP engine, and is built on the K3 chassis. The 43 foot Newmar Dutch Star has a 450HP engine, and is built on the K2chassis. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the Newmar Dutch Star 4369 is $277,200. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the Newmar Mountain Aire 4533 is $274,350. Yep… you read that correctly. The current market value of a used Dutch Star is more than the Mountain Aire for the same model year!

Regardless of the upside down world we’re currently living in, I wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving with your families, friends, and loved ones.

Onward,
Brett
Brett,

As always you're a wealth of knowledge! I believe we're living in a unique time period and I'm hopeful that we'll get back to a somewhat normal time soon. But I'm not holding my breath.

I hope you, your family, and staff have a healthy and happy Thanksgiving
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Old 11-25-2021, 09:08 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrettDavis View Post
Good evening All,

On this Thanksgiving Eve I’ve had an opportunity to catch my breath, relax with a little free time, and catch up on some of my reading. As I was reading the most recent issue of one of my longtime favorite subscriptions on Financial & Economic news, analysis, and research, a thought was triggered. It took me back to the end of June when I was pulling together information to record the “RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE!” video. I label the following information as “Things that make you go hmmm…”

First, I’ll update the NADA Book Value of the 2018 Entegra Anthem I used as my example in the video, and then I’ll move onto the really bizarre.

The Mar/Apr 2020 NADA Book Value for a 2018 Entegra Anthem B was $239,350. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the same coach is $281,500. A whopping 17.61% increase in value over those 10 book changes (20 months)!!! A Motorhome appreciating at the rate of 10.57% per annum?! Let that sit on your tongue for a minute.

Now, let’s shift brands to a 2018 Newmar Dutch Star 4369. The Jan/Feb 2020 NADA Book Value for the 2018 Newmar Dutch Star 4369 was $235,100. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the same coach is $277,200. A whopping 17.91% increase in value over those 11 book changes (22 months)!!! Again, another Motorhome appreciating at 9.77% per annum.

FWIW, I’ve always taught my students there is a big
difference between “investing” and “speculating,” and the difference is:

An “investment” produces an income stream into the future, which a discount rate can be applied to in order to determine its current value. For example, income producing real estate, businesses (stocks), bonds, tolls, whole life insurance, annuities, etc. All these investments have different risk profiles and rates of return.

However, you are speculating if there is no income stream. Think gold, silver, currencies, cryptocurrency, commodities, etc.

My point here is… motorhomes don’t produce an income stream. They are not an investment. They’re a lifestyle. And yet, they are currently defying gravity and appreciating. Clearly, this isn’t sustainable over the long term, and I’d hate for anyone to think I’m suggesting such an absurdity by passing on this information.

Now to the really bizarre! The 45 foot Newmar Mountain Aire has a 500HP engine, and is built on the K3 chassis. The 43 foot Newmar Dutch Star has a 450HP engine, and is built on the K2chassis. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the Newmar Dutch Star 4369 is $277,200. The Nov/Dec 2021 NADA Book Value for the Newmar Mountain Aire 4533 is $274,350. Yep… you read that correctly. The current market value of a used Dutch Star is more than the Mountain Aire for the same model year!

Regardless of the upside down world we’re currently living in, I wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving with your families, friends, and loved ones.

Onward,
Brett
Figures... I'll be in the market for a used 2020 CS early next year. Might have to wait until June or July when we actually retire.
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Old 11-25-2021, 10:31 AM   #39
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Brett, I am interested in your thoughts as to why the higher $ coach has a lower resale value. Are there more Dutch Star out there?
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Old 11-26-2021, 06:40 AM   #40
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Bret,
I have been following this trend for a few months on NADA and have been surprised by the increase of a product that is considered a depreciation asset. I like the detail in your post, and realized that until the Logistics issues we are facing today and the shortage of the basic items is solved, this increase in costs and the inflation issues will continue. An example of this lack of basic items to the RV industry became an issue when one of our Coleman AC units failed. We searched for over a month for a for a new unit, and after calling Entegra to see if they had a new unit, they told me it would be months before the had one available, and they were having issues with shipping new coaches because the AC units were not available. We were very fortunate to find a new unit through a local company that had just one unit.
With all that said were have finished our goal of visiting all 48 Continental states, so we are selling our 2019 44W and moving on to other areas of interest
I will continue to follow your posts as I find them quite interesting and enjoy how you are improving the RV industry.
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Old 11-26-2021, 01:35 PM   #41
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As bizarre as the current state of used RV values may be, a simple explanation is that it's really difficult to repeal the law of supply and demand.
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Old 11-26-2021, 03:13 PM   #42
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Hi Larry - Can't disagree with supply and demand but in the case of the Dutch Star v MountainAire issue I think it might be more a function of perceived new value (bang for the buck) and demand as a used unit. (Really not much different than your statement).
I wonder if the numbers look the same for Cornerstone v Anthem? I tend to doubt it as I think the Cornerstone is more widely appreciated.



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