Coronavirus is everywhere!

[R.Wold]

Originally Posted by hoosierrun

US now the third most infected Country in the World according to Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

We have been back and forth with Spain for 3rd, I'm sure much of this has come to light from recent testing campaigns. Previous to testing, sick people were not counted.

We also have a much higher population that Spain, Italy and others. At 330 million population the United States per capita infected rate is way down around 16th behind Portugal. Also our mortality rate is tied with the lowest developed countries with reliable reporting at around 1.2% (S. Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, etc). And we have been holding at that 1.2% for over a week as more data has poured in and our verified infected number has been rising. So it seems reliable. (I do the math several times per day as data changes).

It’s important to look at a lot more than just the number of known cases to get an idea of the impact on a population. In addition to per capita, it is also important to consider social, economic, and demographic differences to name a few.

I keep hearing “we are two weeks behind Italy”. I don’t think so. They have 1/5 the population, 2.6 times the number of cases and 7.5 times the mortality rate due to the variables I listed above.

I’m not discounting the seriousness of all this (I don’t want to get it!), just providing some perspective that the mass media will not. And they are every bit as capable, if not more so (hopefully) of making these simple calculations. They just refuse to do so.

The data I rely upon is from Johns Hopkins https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

[rlott2k]

Originally Posted by R.Wold

I agree it’s a more serious threat that Rubicon believes, but the actual impact is probably less. It’s an interesting conundrum. Right now the mortality rate in the us is 1.2% and holding for two weeks now, and totals 346 as of today. And that 1.2% is of test confirmed cases. We may never know the number of actual cases, but it is higher (difficult to quantity the untested positives) and so the mortality percentage is actually lower (deaths are easy to count), perhaps a lot lower.

So I can see Rubicons point, even now. The difference is that as we learn more about this virus, and how it spreads, we learn more about how to avoid it. So I’m content in my paranoia hole (admittedly it’s a very nice one) but I also believe that in the final analysis $850 Billion will prove to be a gross over reaction. Maybe not if a lot of that goes to mitigate the financial impact on the economy. But still, imagine if heart disease, various cancers, diabetes etc got this much attention.

I also believe that the decision makers are backed into a corner on this one because if they don’t grant nearly every item on the wish-lists being presented as a means to combat this thing, every death will be laid at their feet by those with dubious agendas. And then in the final analysis, (my prediction here...) these same decision makers will be criticized for over spending and over reacting to the crisis.

I agree with the infected/casualty supposition, but would add that it’s also possible many deaths may be counted as influenza due to lack of testing.

[rlott2k]

Poor Italy is showing 5476 deaths from 59138 cases.
(Bloomberg news).
That’s a 9.25% death rate.
That’s today’s stat.
Those are horrible numbers to think of.
This is only March.

[rarebear.nm]

Raw numbers of totals anything does not provide much insight into an issue. Depending the problem at hand you need some data analysis. At least simple percentages help some. More telling is the slope of the graphed data. Some of you understand slope (rate of change) quite well, others may remember from schools something about it. As long as the slope is increasing things are getting worse in this case. For your investments a strong slope would be great. In the US the change of slope is still positive, getting worse, in terms of confirmed infections and deaths. No decent data has been collected on the US population that may be carrying and not showing signs of infections. Serious lack of test kits and perhaps lack of desire to even know those numbers will hamper the recovery process.

[rodekyll]

Originally Posted by TechWriter

You definitely cover all the bases.

When possible, I go to the original source of information, especially research. While it doesn't have to come from the CDC or WHO, there are peer-reviewed articles online from the NEJM, JAMA, and even Science Daily.

Many people are quoting from online blogs or overtly political sites which can be misleading or just plain junk.

I don't read all of them for every news bit. I do enough cross-reading to get opposing viewpoints and check facts. For example, I don't usually care too much about what Al Jazeera's take on the US scandal of the day, but I might be real interested in their take on middle eastern issues.

One thing that's interesting about reading a lot of sources is noticing which ones cover/don't cover particular stories. One level of editorial spinning is to present the story with a certain slant. Another level is to simply not report it at all. So when I see four outlets lead with an unflattering story about what a politician did, and the 5th outlet ignores the story in favor of an expose' on the cutest puppies ever, outlet #5 becomes suspect.

[tcg]

Originally Posted by rodekyll

I don't read all of them for every news bit. I do enough cross-reading to get opposing viewpoints and check facts. For example, I don't usually care too much about what Al Jazeera's take on the US scandal of the day, but I might be real interested in their take on middle eastern issues.

One thing that's interesting about reading a lot of sources is noticing which ones cover/don't cover particular stories. One level of editorial spinning is to present the story with a certain slant. Another level is to simply not report it at all. So when I see four outlets lead with an unflattering story about what a politician did, and the 5th outlet ignores the story in favor of an expose' on the cutest puppies ever, outlet #5 becomes suspect.

I would suspect the puppies are not the cutest ever.

[rarebear.nm]

Originally Posted by tcg

I would suspect the puppies are not the cutest ever.

All true. But I would trust the puppies than most politicians. Just light fun...

[rlott2k]

Originally Posted by rarebear.nm

Raw numbers of totals anything does not provide much insight into an issue. Depending the problem at hand you need some data analysis. At least simple percentages help some. More telling is the slope of the graphed data. Some of you understand slope (rate of change) quite well, others may remember from schools something about it. As long as the slope is increasing things are getting worse in this case. For your investments a strong slope would be great. In the US the change of slope is still positive, getting worse, in terms of confirmed infections and deaths. No decent data has been collected on the US population that may be carrying and not showing signs of infections. Serious lack of test kits and perhaps lack of desire to even know those numbers will hamper the recovery process.

Here’s a graph I found on Vox. It’s 2 days old.

[rlott2k]

Originally Posted by R.Wold

We also have a much higher population that Spain, Italy and others. At 330 million population the United States per capita infected rate is way down around 16th behind Portugal. Also our mortality rate is tied with the lowest developed countries with reliable reporting at around 1.2% (S. Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, etc). And we have been holding at that 1.2% for over a week as more data has poured in and our verified infected number has been rising. So it seems reliable. (I do the math several times per day as data changes).

It’s important to look at a lot more than just the number of known cases to get an idea of the impact on a population. In addition to per capita, it is also important to consider social, economic, and demographic differences to name a few.

I keep hearing “we are two weeks behind Italy”. I don’t think so. They have 1/5 the population, 2.6 times the number of cases and 7.5 times the mortality rate due to the variables I listed above.

I’m not discounting the seriousness of all this (I don’t want to get it!), just providing some perspective that the mass media will not. And they are every bit as capable, if not more so (hopefully) of making these simple calculations. They just refuse to do so.

The data I rely upon is from Johns Hopkins https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

What do you see as the biggest differences in Italy as opposed to USA that would skew huge numbers in Italy?

[rk911]

Originally Posted by richard5933

This is nothing new and has been going on for as long as newspapers have been printed, and as long as it's been broadcasted on radio and TV.

Decades ago, before the internet and cable TV, people usually subscribed to the local daily paper and watched the local news. Even then, every newspaper and every news broadcast selectively reports the news, selectively editing stories according to the editorial slant of the paper/newscast. Even deciding whether a story was "above the fold" or "below the fold" was an editorial decision, just as was burying a story behind the classified advertising. Same for deciding which stories would lead the evening news where ratings were more important than accuracy or fair reporting.

The only difference between then and now is that we are able to easily see other versions of the news on cable and the internet. When we only had one news outlet to read or one local station, it was much more difficult to know when things weren't being accurately reported. Unless you had the money to get a mail subscription to a big-city paper, you just didn't know.

No matter what you primary new source, it is up to each of us to fact check what we're reading and seeing. Every news outlet, by design, has an editorial slant. Do your homework and be fully informed.

absolutely. I remember way back in high school journalism class (1968) comparing how the four major daily papers in Chicago covered a story. a real eye opener.

[Monacoach]

Down playing the numbers on social media serves no good purpose. People who are willingly gathering ie parties and such should be charged with murder if someone down their chain dies. Right?

[C5c5]

Originally Posted by R.Wold

I agree it’s a more serious threat that Rubicon believes, but the actual impact is probably less. It’s an interesting conundrum. Right now the mortality rate in the us is 1.2% and holding for two weeks now, and totals 346 as of today. And that 1.2% is of test confirmed cases. We may never know the number of actual cases, but it is higher (difficult to quantity the untested positives) and so the mortality percentage is actually lower (deaths are easy to count), perhaps a lot lower.

So I can see Rubicons point, even now. The difference is that as we learn more about this virus, and how it spreads, we learn more about how to avoid it. So I’m content in my paranoia hole (admittedly it’s a very nice one) but I also believe that in the final analysis $850 Billion will prove to be a gross over reaction. Maybe not if a lot of that goes to mitigate the financial impact on the economy. But still, imagine if heart disease, various cancers, diabetes etc got this much attention.

I also believe that the decision makers are backed into a corner on this one because if they don’t grant nearly every item on the wish-lists being presented as a means to combat this thing, every death will be laid at their feet by those with dubious agendas. And then in the final analysis, (my prediction here...) these same decision makers will be criticized for over spending and over reacting to the crisis.

Bingo!
It has been a damned if you do/damned if you don't case from the beginning for decision makers.

Because no one wants to be blamed for deaths from under-reacting, they will always go overboard egged on by a scared public who lacks knowledge on what can and can't be done on a macro level.

[C5c5]

Originally Posted by DutchmenSpor

The original poster first posted on March 11 starting this thread. Today is March 22, eleven days later. So much has changed since eleven days ago, yet so much has remained the same.

Not to downplay the thread of what's going on, but it sure would be nice if folks would start looking at some of the positives coming out of all of this.

For example:

We may criticize the public school systems for their world view indoctrination of our children. So, during the school closures, count your blessings they can now become indoctrinated by YOUR views. Schools have momentarily lost control, putting control of the children back in the hands of the parents. Is that a bad thing? Not really if you are one of those whose been complaining about how horrible the public schools are.

I think everyone complains and criticizes how overworked we all are, how our places of employtmnet have literally scraped every ounce of energy and brains out of our existence. When we return home after our shift, we're exhausted, pooped-out! Just simply too tired to do anything. Well, if you are now self-confined, or worse yet, confined by public mandate, count your blessings! You now have time for your kids, your spouse, your loved ones, either in person or distance.

Think of it his way too. Considering all the business that are closed, think of the money you are saving by not eating out, by not running around filling your fuel tank 3 times a week, and all the laundry you are being spared because you are no longer wearing your Sunday best every time you go out and then you feel it must be washed.

I figure, this week alone, (we as a family of 4) ... my wife works from home full time anyway (Information Technology), I am now 100% work from home (Information Technology). My son is now manditory Work from home (Information Technology), and our grandson who also lives with us, is out of school and doing the E-learning thing, is with us full time at home now too.

Between all 4 of us, we have probably saved almost 1000 miles of driving this last week. We are actually eating healthier now, as we've had to really consider what foods are truly most important. And Candy and sweets are not on the list.

I'm saving $75 a week by not eating out at work every day now. My son is saving over $50 a week by not eating out every day at work.

We have a Bidet. We have no need for toilet paper. We are blessed!

We live in the country. We are about 50 miles North and East of Indianapolis. I didn't realize how much noise we experience where we live until just a few days ago. We are on a flight path for the airport in Indianapolis. The closest straight line to Interstate I-65 is about 6 miles from where we live. The closes railroad (in a straight line) is approximately 8 miles from where we live. Even though we live in the country, our road is one of the busier roads. Because we are surrounded by corn and bean fields, sounds carry far out here. We can hear the garbage pick-up truck over a mile away when he's on his route. Well, sound carries and it's really noisier here than I ever imagined, until just a few days ago when I realized how quiet it was outside.

No planes, no traffic, no motion anywhere. It's so quiet, so peaceful, so screen. It's awesome!

Our camper is a real joy. It's in our driveway, right here with us. I unwinterized a couple weeks ago when we had a failed trip to Georgia planned and the truck broke down in Tennessee and we ended up staying in Kentucky for the duration of our vacation. Plans altered? Money lost? yes. But we were safe, had plenty to eat, and eventually made it back HOME.

We are safe, we are healthy, we are secure, we have food, we have no need to toilet paper (yea, I gotta keep mentioning that), we are enjoying each other as a family, we are playing together, watching television together, fixing meals together, and helping the 6 year old with his e-learning school home work.

Yes, things have changed over the last 11 days. I'm not diminishing the threat of impending doom, but I'm also really enjoying the benefits of our altered lifestyle.

Everyone focuses on the negative. Count your blessings and start focusing on the positives! You'll have much to be thankful and grateful for too!

Thank you for a good reminder to look at the positives instead of uber-focusing on the negatives.

[AnotherMike]

Below are pointers to two of the most educational, intelligent and non-political videos on coronavirus I have seen...

They explain exactly what is going on, and better yet, WHY...

You really, really want to watch both.
I've added two extra spaces so that the irv2 web site won't mask the links... just delete the spaces...

https: // youtu.be/fgBla7RepXU

https: // youtu.be/Oq1LyEhmNfU

Stay Well!

Mike WA6ILQ