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Old 03-22-2020, 03:43 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by djpotts50 View Post
FastStats - Deaths and Mortality (according to the CDC)



https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm


If you are elderly with medical complications, play it safe like every Flu season. The panic & fear mongering is real, the so-called pandemic of massive deaths (not so much). Look at what the real killers are in this CDC government article.



So many people are buying into the fear mongering, and thus will gladly trade away their rights & freedoms without even knowing the truth first. Enjoy the article, turn off the news, & use common sense.
This is based on 2017 data. Wait until you read the report based on 2020 data.

As my above post just mentioned, the CDC worst case estimates in the US for COVID-19 are from 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths, with as many as 160 million to 214 million being infected and 2.4 million to 21 million requiring hospitalization.

There is good reason the stock markets are tanking all over the world. One in 5 Americans are now required by the government to shelter in place.
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Old 03-22-2020, 03:48 PM   #44
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We are 71 in good health. But I'm a polio survivor who crashed every year for a week or two with the flu until flu vaccines were available. I just assumed I'd be sick in bed for a week or two every year - never came close to perfect attendance in school. My last flu was about 1995 and I thought it was possible I would die. I remember waking to wet clothes and a drenched bed. My fever had broken and I knew I would live.

Here is a website that tracks covid-19 cases around the world and by State in the U.S. https://ncov2019.live/data?fbclid=Iw...QbuoU_uilUP3KQ

Listen to the scientists, not the politicians.
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Old 03-22-2020, 03:54 PM   #45
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.... cancelling trips, isolation and asking questions is not panic it is the neccessary actions required to stop the curve or slow the bend......not sure what the latest lingo is. Slow the virus....... what is the point of arguing over the definition of panic? If you think its panic then we all need to panic.
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Old 03-22-2020, 03:54 PM   #46
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Listen to the scientists, not the politicians.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:03 PM   #47
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Lots has happened since I posted the OP. Entire states are now shelter in place. The number of infections continues to climb and deaths are rising. What things will look like in another 1-2 weeks may be very scary. Hoping for the best. Preparing for the worst.

BTW, although the author in the OP was not in medicine, there have been similar forecasts put out by medical sources. As they're saying in Italy and other hard hit places, "if we only knew then what we know now we would have done things differently". Let's hope the US has learned from the mistakes of other countries.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:05 PM   #48
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In southern GA, we've had at least 4 deaths of people who attended 2 funerals. And a majority of believers say "it's god's will". A number of churchs insist on continuing to hold services, their pastors saying god is bringing this to the non-believers and your faith will protect you. [Mod Edit]

[Mod Edit]

Unfortunately we are in our 60's and live down here. My wife has 4 years to go to retirement and, admittedly I've continued to say I'm here under protest. We're here for her job, but will blow this Popsicle stand within a week of her retirement.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:18 PM   #49
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Lots has happened since I posted the OP. Entire states are now shelter in place. The number of infections continues to climb and deaths are rising. What things will look like in another 1-2 weeks may be very scary. Hoping for the best. Preparing for the worst.

BTW, although the author in the OP was not in medicine, there have been similar forecasts put out by medical sources. As they're saying in Italy and other hard hit places, "if we only knew then what we know now we would have done things differently". Let's hope the US has learned from the mistakes of other countries.
Now we are over 1000 confirmed cases in Florida and 70 of those are non-residents that were likely on vacation here. Testing really only began at ramped up pace last week. If think there will be a heck of a lot more in the next few days.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:26 PM   #50
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Just FYI -- my son is a doctor and is in charge of coronavirus policy within the obstetrics department of a major hospital -- we talked to him yesterday and what he told us is exactly in line with the info contained in the long article quoted above.

Due to the inevitable math of contagion, this bug will hit many millions of folks, and maybe a million of us will die. But aggressive "social distancing" will both reduce the number of deaths and will flatten the curve, making it less impossible for the hospitals to deal with the tsunami of very sick folks.

Buckle up. Here we go. This will all be history by this time next year. I am not sure I will be around to celebrate.
You hit the nail on the head. Practice social isolation as much as your situation allows NOW, and maintain social distancing for when you absolutely can't isolate. Also, practice rigorous sanitation. We sanitize our cars and house daily, and afer every action outside the house that might be a source of contamination (gas pump etc). My wife and I are in the high risk group and we have been social isolating since the first cases showed up in Florida. I have told many people (mostly online and phone) that if Tampa has 50 documented cases, the actual number of infected person in the community not yet showing symptoms is likely 25 times (1,250) that, and that the growth rate will be expotential. With no vaccine and no active treatments available, the best we can do is to take as many people as possible out of the potential infection web (flatten the curve) so as to not overwhelm our medical system - which is already to the breaking point in some areas.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:44 PM   #51
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Swine Flu

Where was all the hysteria when we had the Swine Flu. It hurt more people and killed many in our country and you barely heard a thing about it. The media has really hyped this to the point of scaring people to death.
This virus will come and go like all others before it.
Try to relax and use your brain and common sense to see you through.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:44 PM   #52
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BTW, where were all these scientists and politicians when H1N1 had 60 million cases and 12,468 deaths in 2009? What closed? IN case you've forgotten, nothing closed. There were no runs on groceries, either. Life was normal. I call BS on this current pandemic.
The 2009 flu pandemic was the second H1N1 pandemic the world had seen — the first being the 1918 Spanish flu, still the most deadly pandemic in history. The 2009 pandemic was caused by a new strain of H1N1 that originated in Mexico in the spring of 2009 before spreading to the rest of the world. By June of that year, there were enough cases that the World Health Organization declared the swine flu outbreak a pandemic.

In the U.S., between April 2009 and April 2010, the CDC estimates there were 60.8 million cases of swine flu, with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths — that's a mortality rate of about 0.02%.

The mortality rate for the novel coronavirus is much higher so far, around 2% (although the number will likely change as more people are tested). That may not sound like a big difference, but when extrapolated, can mean millions more deaths.

The 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young adults, and 80% of the deaths were in people younger than 65, the CDC reported. That was unusual, considering that most strains of flu viruses, including those that cause seasonal flu, cause the highest percentage of deaths in people ages 65 and older. But in the case of the swine flu, older people seemed to have already built up enough immunity to the group of viruses that H1N1 belongs to, so weren't affected as much.

The H1N1 flu was less contagious than the novel coronavirus. The basic reproduction number, also called the R-nought value, is the expected number of individuals who can catch the virus from a single infected person. For the 2009 H1N1 virus, the mean R-nought value was 1.46, according to a review published in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases. For the novel coronavirus, the R-nought value is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5, at the moment.

You are free to believe whatever you wish, but I hope that others who read this thread will be willing to listen to the scientists. They don't have all the information but I tend to believe what they say more than stuff reported on internet forums and on Facebook.

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Old 03-22-2020, 04:45 PM   #53
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I believe we should go about our normal routine and let the virus run its course and I am in the over 70 group. I think the way we are going with everything shut down we are giving the government too much power over our lives and we may never regain the liberty lost. The flu of 2009/2010 hospitalized and killed more people that have died so far world wide and we didn't shut down and destroy the economy; we lived our lives. How come no one is talking about the number of deaths from the regular flu; over 20,000 this year.
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:07 PM   #54
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In southern GA, we've had at least 4 deaths of people who attended 2 funerals. And a majority of believers say "it's god's will". A number of churchs insist on continuing to hold services, their pastors saying god is bringing this to the non-believers and your faith will protect you. [Mod Edit]

[Mod Edit]

Unfortunately we are in our 60's and live down here. My wife has 4 years to go to retirement and, admittedly I've continued to say I'm here under protest. We're here for her job, but will blow this Popsicle stand within a week of her retirement.
I blame the schools and their parents.

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"Modern Americans behave as if intelligence were some sort of hideous deformity." Frank Zappa

"If you think education is expensive, wait until you see how much ignorance costs." Barack Obama
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:11 PM   #55
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When I grew up as a teenager the Hong Kong Flu came out of China 1968 to 1970 as a World pandemic. We were fairly isolated in our suburban neighborhoods and worldwide travel was not nearly as prevalent as today. Nevertheless, that virus killed between 1 and 4 million people. The Spanish Flu killed from 25 to 50 million people. If this virus is anything like those earlier ones, we could easily see similar statistics.
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:13 PM   #56
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How come no one is talking about the number of deaths from the regular flu; over 20,000 this year.
Apparently they talk about it often on the Faux News channel. Tune in, bet you'll like it
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