Covid-19 is a serious threat

[baraff]

I'd like to know why people think what's happening in Europe and elsewhere won't happen here?? That thinking makes no sense at all.

[Ianto Jones]

Here is an excellent article from WaPo about why we need to #FlattenTheCurve (if the link doesn’t work, Google “Simulitis”)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ona-simulator/

[ColCruiser]

Re: There are also a fair number of adults who feel the need to politicize this. They think it's way overblown by opponents of the President and by the media. Not likely any of them are going to social distance.

We recently left a fairly large gathering of fellow RV'rs. It was surprising on how many folks felt this was indeed the case. It was actually alarming and somewhat scary on how many truly felt this was all a hoax created by the fake media. We had to tell them to quit forwarding us their BS conspiracy theories. This not a Democrat nor Republican problem. This is global pandemic that the whole world is trying their best to deal
with at this time.

We intend to do our best to follow Dr. Fauci's and CDC recommendations on how best to conduct ourselves during this global pandemic. Social distancing is key!

[docj]

Originally Posted by baraff

People can believe what they want, that is their right. However if people don't believe the science and the math, just stay away from everyone else.

The anti-science sentiment in the US has become worrisome over the past decade. If you don't like what the science tells you, just construct an alternative reality. Climate change, evolution, and now a global pandemic. The difference is that in this case not believing the science may well be the death of you and many others. Daniel Patrick Moynihan is credited with having said "everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but there is only one set of facts!"

[WyCamper]

Originally Posted by baraff

I'd like to know why people think what's happening in Europe and elsewhere won't happen here?? That thinking makes no sense at all.

Jingoism?

[CamJam1]

Originally Posted by docj

The anti-science sentiment in the US has become worrisome over the past decade. If you don't like what the science tells you, just construct an alternative reality. Climate change, evolution, and now a global pandemic. The difference is that in this case not believing the science may well be the death of you and many others. Daniel Patrick Moynihan is credited with having said "everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but there is only one set of facts!"

So true, Doc! I just read that half the population of our nearby town of Prescott AZ died during the 1917-18 Spanish flu pandemic because the local population didn't take it seriously.

Here's some potential good news though from a Stanford biophysicist. Let's hope he's right!

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...nobel-laureate

[followingsea]

Originally Posted by CamJam1

So true, Doc! I just read that half the population of our nearby town of Prescott AZ died during the 1917-18 Spanish flu pandemic because the local population didn't take it seriously.
......

How does a virus know if you are taking it seriously?

Just as Italy is a different country, 1918 was a different time.

That is how you fear monger. You use an example that people do not know about.

So the whole idea is to flatten the curve so we are within the capacity of the our medical structure.

Another way to do that is to isolate half the medical people and infect them before the general population. They would recover and be immune to treat the next batch. And so forth.

[Solo_RV_Guy]

I just read all 7 pages, 90+ posts, and I'm still amazed by the contentions that Covid-19 is some kind of hoax or that doing little or nothing will somehow not make things worse than they need to be.

I said this in another reply in another thread, but follow where the money *didn't* go, when it comes to event, gathering, concert, theatre, sporting events, etc cancellations - it didn't go to those teams, promoters, performers, presenters, nor the local crews that set up and run these events, the ushers or box office folks, the cleaning crews or security staff. When you look at how much money stopped flowing just in the entertainment, sports, special events and theater, plus movie and TV show productions, we're talking huge money, hundreds of billions of US$. Entire tours will likely be scrapped, games and tournaments that will not be played, some movie and TV projects will be abandoned, conventions and trade shows not held; projects that take years to put together. The impact goes from Nashville, New York, Hollywood, all the way down to your home town.

If these industries decided that walking away from the money was the right thing to do, somebody did the math to see what the financial exposure would be if their public assemblies or workplaces became transmission vectors and decided it was better to retreat. Any appearance of altruism is coincidental. That nothing in business is "free", this made me wonder just how bad this Covid thing could get for the Public Spectacle industry to walk away, and what did they know that the rest of us didn't, or did not fully understand? I don't know the answer to those, but risk managers looked at Covid and said "Oh... My... Gawd..." and started sending out memos to owners and managers.

When the people who depend on the disposable income of others retreat from that income, something's changed, very changed. Take notice.

[CamJam1]

Originally Posted by followingsea

How does a virus know if you are taking it seriously?

Just as Italy is a different country, 1918 was a different time.

That is how you fear monger. You use an example that people do not know about.

So the whole idea is to flatten the curve so we are within the capacity of the our medical structure.

Another way to do that is to isolate half the medical people and infect them before the general population. They would recover and be immune to treat the next batch. And so forth.

Is that supposed to be a joke?

And btw, it appears you can get this virus more than once.

If you want to lick doorknobs, be my guest.

[Dollytrolley]

Originally Posted by Sirgarlic

Northern Italy is the fashion center of the country. Wuhan is the garment center of China.

There were 300,000 Chinese workers in northern Italy who routinely traveled back and forth between the two countries. This virus started in November and was hidden by the Chinese authorities.

With all of the travelling back and forth the virus was being introduced at an extremely high rate. Combine that with the age of the average Italian and the state of their healthcare and the COVID 19 bomb makes sense.

It is a problem but we do not have the same conditions here in this country. The USA has made all the right decisions.

We will weather the storm and make it through just fine. People will die but at no greater rate than the flu.

Obviously the CDC ........WHO..........and EVERY credible health agency on EARTH was so CLUELESS ...........UNTIL you took few moments of few " dick Tracy" time(small in the "d") sleuthing out the REAL problem here..........Cheep labor for expensive fashions......

Shucks folks that was a close call.......heck if we all rush back and get a refund on all but the one roll of TP in the out-house we could all get enough refund cash back to buy ship load Boeing stock AND fix the 737 Max in our spare time........

As for me.......I spent way too much time flying doctors of the CDC to scary remote places to STOP pandemics BEFORE they became PANDEMICS..........

In the REAL world EVERY CDC Doc I flew was SERIOUS..........DEADLY SERIOUS!!!

Pandemics never kill ALL the FOOLS........However Covid-19 WILL clobber more than a few fools as well as some folks put in harms way by FOOLS......;

We are fortunate to be in a remote location so I have great respect for the CDC / WHO advice........Covid-19 is a Concern........However FOOLS are ALWAYS a clear and present danger wherever they are........

CDC advises to stay away from Covid-19..........I advise to stay away from FOOLS.....Way Away..........

Take Care.....

[Xmcdog]

Have always distanced myself from fools. Why not?
In this case my friends and I communicate by electronic means. We have all isolated ourselves. Prepared our selves for the long haul.
Here in Nova Scotia we have a state of emergency to deal with the fools who will not practice the social distancing.
Our prime minister has waffled on about closing the borders for weeks. Even after his wife caught the disease. A member of the forementioned group.

It was obvious that this was going to be a serious pandemic as early as mid January. Borders should have been closed then. Yes I know hindsight etc.

It is too late for that now. We have to deal with the present conditions. Thus the isolation.
Frankly I don't care what you believe, just stay away. And don't cry, "I didn't know" when this is over in possibly two years from now.

[McRod]

Not to throw water on the OPs fire, but here we are today, 11 days after his mathematical predictions. The US has 35,418 confirmed cases and 473 deaths. (Death rate 1.3%).

Either his social distancing message got out in time, OR he needs to go back to math school. I know his focus was on the "carriers" of covid19, rather than the actual cases, but in yesterday's press brief the WH stated that 90% of the people tested for covid19 in the US (estimated 250,000 tests to date) were negative. Spring breakers seemed to not be in compliance with the social distancing guidance.

The OPs prediction was that the virus doubled every 3 days. Using that guess, if you took the first known case day (Jan 21, Snohomish County, WA), there have been 21 iterations of doubling. Fast forward through the math, 2*21 power, would be over 1 million infected today - in the US alone. There has only been 339,363 cases World-wide as of 23 March 2020. So not even close. I know, I know, he was talking about the invisible carriers..i.e unreported cases. But he did state it was an order magnitude of 10. You can extrapolate math in either direction.

The one thing I learned in math school, is it's hard to do math without the numbers. Something to consider.

As many have pointed out, the US circumstances may not be the same as other countries to effectively compare. As a nation, we are not nearly as compacted (close living quarters, density) as China or Europe. In places that we are, i.e. New York City and L.A., you see similar results as Europe (Italy) and China.

In this case, I want the conspiracy theorist and hoax claimers to be correct. Rather than the rest of you sensible people. As always, precaution is necessary, but panic is not.

[Monacoach]

Originally Posted by Donskiman

Look, we shouldn't be denigrating anyone for believing what they do. It's my sincere hope the skeptical people are correct and this all has been massively overblown. If so we can go back to normal very quickly. We should know in another 2-3 weeks. Until it's known for sure one way or the other my family plans to adhere to the rules. If that requires some temporary discomfort, that's just the way it will be. Meanwhile please keep your distance as we will be keeping ours.

We are not denigrating people for not changing their oil or tires, this is life and death their posts are actually dangerous as well as yours defending them. These threads will be shut down soon.

[McRod]

Originally Posted by baraff

People can believe what they want, that is their right. However if people don't believe the science and the math, just stay away from everyone else.
And best of luck to anyone who ignores the warnings.

The math certainly doesn't add up. Do it for yourself.

As far as the science? It's unknown, specific to this virus. That's why there is no cure to date. Only prevention is advocated by washing your hands and not breathing on each other. That should already be practiced everyday without having to get "the government" to remind us.

Some people are trying to warn of an even greater threat - economic collapse due to an over reaction, as well as, other existential threats, such as, loss of Liberty.