How accurate is the testing?

[okmunky]

From my understanding, most COVID-19 testing is done using a PCR test. According to this website the PCR test was developed to test for the seasonal flu. Could the sudden rise in positive Covid test results be inaccurate because it includes those with the flu? How many people fail to get a flu shot out of fear of being exposed to COVID-19?

https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_...ug_2011_en.pdf

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay is a rapid and sensitive method for detecting the genetic material of influenza viruses, and is now the first-choice laboratory test for influenza infection in both humans and animals.

[Solo_RV_Guy]

Originally Posted by okmunky

From my understanding, most COVID-19 testing is done using a PCR test. According to this website the PCR test was developed to test for the seasonal flu. Could the sudden rise in positive Covid test results be inaccurate because it includes those with the flu? How many people fail to get a flu shot out of fear of being exposed to COVID-19?

https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_...ug_2011_en.pdf

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay is a rapid and sensitive method for detecting the genetic material of influenza viruses, and is now the first-choice laboratory test for influenza infection in both humans and animals.

Not likely. PCR tests "amplify" genetic material, the tests are looking for protein chains specific to an individual pathogen. Properly done, they are very accurate.

As for people not getting flu shots because of a fear of exposure to another disease... I've not read anything specific to avoiding flu shots but some folks are delaying hospital ER visits (heart attacks, strokes, fractures) because they're afraid they'd be mixed in with Covid patients (which shouldn't happen, the ERs have a separate area for them). When I got my flu shot the practitioner had fresh gloves, mask, and face shield.

Barb, I'm curious as to why the focus on what looks like (to me, anyway) attempts to discredit testing. Hospital admissions are nearing capacity, staffs are stretched thin, and ICUs are full in many places. I'm struggling to understand how this pretty obvious relationship is dismissed. Even if the tests are false positive 15% of the time it does not negate or diminish the number of sick and dying. Or am I missing something?

[Spk64]

Thread Reminder.
Be sure to adhere closely to the items below.

Please read carefully:

Because of the very high interest and posting activity regarding COVID-19, the site team has established this temporary new forum to contain all threads related to this topic. We have moved existing threads on this topic to this new forum and will continue to move posts and new threads to this area of the forum, regardless of where they were initially posted.

All Community Rules will be strictly enforced in this forum. Posts in violation of the rules may be deleted without notification based on the judgment of the moderators. In addition, posts that exhibit fear-mongering or other anti-social behavior may result in the author’s posting privileges being restricted. Please be especially cautious about posting politically charged content and be sure to report problem posts.

There has been a lot of very useful information and perspective shared here on this topic, but unfortunately also a good bit that does not meet our standards. Please respect your fellow members by thinking through this before posting:

- Is it true?
- Is it helpful?
- Is it kind?

If you have any questions about this, feel free to message any moderator.

Wishing good health to all,
The Moderator Team

[okmunky]

Personally, I feel we are being lied to by the media and others just so they can have higher ratings and therefore more revenue. I'm seeing people who are so terrified they won’t walk outside and they are paying exorbitant prices for sanitizers and other products that will make them "feel safer". Money should not be the driving factor here and it looks to me as if it is.

Domestic violence is continuing to rise because mentally fragile people are being stressed beyond their limits. Our economy may never be able to recover from this. What will be the the side effects of all the sanitizers being used?

Yes, this is a dangerous disease and I feel for everyone who has lost a loved one or a job because of it. But why can’t we get more balanced reporting and fewer scare tactics?

Why are so many of the statistics being reported as # per 100,000 instead of a simple percentage? I would suggest that is because it makes it sound like more. Scare tactic!

[RKins]

There are a lot of people that have the same question as Barb. PCR as a test tool is questionable by everyone but the scientists because the lay person, including me, doesn't grasp how it works and no one is explaining it to the public to quell the confusion. Look at Elon Musk - does he believe in the PCR test now? Even if you read how it works it is hard to understand. Here is a link to something that might help a little, explaining how it works (a little).
https://fullfact.org/online/pcr-test-mullis/
And the fact check https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN24420X

This reply has nothing to do with down playing the number of people in the ICUs and are dying - it's about the test, and everyone that goes into the ICU is tested (I was in the hospital a 2 months ago and was tested even though I had symptoms not related).
My DW works in healthcare and has been tested 9 or 10 times (all neg) and I have been tested 6 times because of being exposed to her (all neg). Does this mean I am 100% trusting of the test? No. Unfortunately there is no other test that is 100%, even the antibodies test can't tell if you are positive or negative presently. I track the numbers on spreadsheet every day because I can't remember what the number was yesterday or the day before. You can go to several sites and the numbers are all inconsistent with each other. I use the FL Covid site and really don't trust the numbers but it's the one I use. The gal in the news lately was the creator of the dashboard I use and she doesn't trust it anymore either.
So, there is a lot of distrust out there and I agree with Barb, all propagated by the press.

[rfsod48]

I don’t know where you get your information but my nightly news gives the actual numbers of daily cases, hospitalized, recovered and dead. Actual numbers, not % or x of x thousand.
Please do not stick your head in the sand, this disease is very serious and until we are able to get 200000000+ vaccinated in our country it will be prevalent.
Stay safe and healthy.

[KenZ71]

Originally Posted by okmunky

Personally, I feel we are being lied to by the media and others just so they can have higher ratings and therefore more revenue. I'm seeing people who are so terrified they won’t walk outside and they are paying exorbitant prices for sanitizers and other products that will make them "feel safer". Money should not be the driving factor here and it looks to me as if it is.

Domestic violence is continuing to rise because mentally fragile people are being stressed beyond their limits. Our economy may never be able to recover from this. What will be the the side effects of all the sanitizers being used?

Yes, this is a dangerous disease and I feel for everyone who has lost a loved one or a job because of it. But why can’t we get more balanced reporting and fewer scare tactics?

Why are so many of the statistics being reported as # per 100,000 instead of a simple percentage? I would suggest that is because it makes it sound like more. Scare tactic!

All good points.

We as a society have survived prior pandemics, world wars, mass riots, natural disasters, etc. This too shall pass. I am not saying throw caution to wind. Also, don't throw out our basic inalienable human rights.

[arcaguy]

Originally Posted by okmunky

But why can’t we get more balanced reporting and fewer scare tactics? Why are so many of the statistics being reported as # per 100,000 instead of a simple percentage? I would suggest that is because it makes it sound like more. Scare tactic!

One persons balanced reporting is another persons scare tactic, so it all depends upon from where you are looking at an issue. Statistics reported as per 100,000 are percentages they just aren't described as such. 5,000 per 100,000 is 5%, same numbers, different ways to express the same thing. I don't see how this is a scare tactic, but as I said, it all depends upon from where you are looking at an issue.

[Jlo11111]

The problem is the death stats are being reported against those that have been tested which makes it sound worse than it is. Only 12M people have been tested, but it's estimated that over 50M in the US have actually had it. When you calculate the death rate against those that have been tested, it's 2%. When you calculate the death rate against those that have had it, it drops to .5%. when you calculate the death rate against the entire US population, it drops to .07%. The latter is most relevant to me.

Regarding the accuracy of the test, I took it to appease a friend. The doc called me and said, good news, you don't have covid, but I want you to know it has a false negatives rate of 24%. Not sure what the false positive rate is, but I would assume it's similar.

[Old-Biscuit]

I'm not too concerned about 'percentages' --- 10% 5% 2% .05% .07% etc



I am more concerned with 'hospital rates'
I have had 2 needed surgeries postponed due to hospital reaching their capacity rate ---elective surgeries not being done
Due to complications I have been admitted twice ONLY because I came in thru the ER...once by ambulance and once by Air Flight

I have seen the ER full, ICU full and having been in hospital for over 20 days on 2 occasions (total of 60 days for 5 surgeries) I know/understand how this Virus HAS affected the lives of many...those with it and those providing care for it

Call your local hospital and inquire about their current hospital capacity rate and if elective surgeries are being preformed

Forget the 'entertainment news', forget the reported %
Call and inquire to find out how your area is being affected

Mask up, Wash your Hands, Distance -----simple common sense things that can make a big difference

Government wouldn't have to 'step in' if folks would take some common sense measures on their own

Would you hang out unprotected with folks that have:
Stomach Flu, Influenza, Meningitis, Hand,Foot,Mouth Disease, Pertussis, STI's, MRSA, TB
All Contagious.....

Think about it.

[okmunky]

Originally Posted by KenZ71

, don't throw out our basic inalienable human rights.

This is what scares me the most about this pandemic. Scare tactics can be used to get people to do things that they otherwise wouldn’t do.

[RVPioneer]

FWIW: I’ve been working for the past 12 weeks in what is considered an essential sector. Entertainment Production, think TV shows and movies. We have approximately 250 people on the project. Roughly half get a PCR test every Monday, the other half are tested on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. I’d estimate that we’ve done more than 6,000 tests. Less than 10 have been positive. That’s about 0.15%.

Is the test accurate? I don’t know. Some have speculated that it is designed to produce negative results?

Personally, there is too much at stake for the producers to rely on a test that returns inaccurate results. The industry was down for the better part of 6 months. No one wants to see another work stoppage. Everyone wears an approved mask and face shield while working. Only the actors, stunt performers and background actors remove their PPE while recording a take.

We’ve only lost a half day of work while contact tracing was being conducted. That work was completed on a Saturday. There has been no workplace transmission.

In my experience along with information gained from our Health and Safety department as well as our PPE protocol training, I’d say the test is reliable and produces accurate results.

[RVPioneer]

Originally Posted by Jlo11111

The problem is the death stats are being reported against those that have been tested which makes it sound worse than it is. Only 12M people have been tested, but it's estimated that over 50M in the US have actually had it. When you calculate the death rate against those that have been tested, it's 2%. When you calculate the death rate against those that have had it, it drops to .5%. when you calculate the death rate against the entire US population, it drops to .07%. The latter is most relevant to me.

Regarding the accuracy of the test, I took it to appease a friend. The doc called me and said, good news, you don't have covid, but I want you to know it has a false negatives rate of 24%. Not sure what the false positive rate is, but I would assume it's similar.

Check your numbers.

There have been more than 16M diagnosed cases and more than 215M tests performed.

[Wroughtnharv]

We have the examples of success against the virus. They all involve massive testing, contract tracing, and enforced social distancing. Australia is Covid free, so is New Zealand. Thailand has a very aggressive program. They are celebrating the Holidays this year.