Keeping this in perspective

[Excesses]

That **some** have nothing better to do than to pick apart other posts... Sad

Let me rephrase my statement about cascading multi organ failure. This would apply to the intubated/ventilated patient who has progressed to ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome. I won’t get into the pathophysiology, but let me state that I personally ventilated several thousands of patients over my career. Adults, paediatric, neonatal. There is little written evidence of paediatric and neonatal deaths at this point. But kids and infants can get the virus and spread it amongst their families. Infants and paediatric patients are susceptible to Respiratory Syncitial Virus (RSV), so they’re not immune to viruses.

Sure, Covid-19 is not in the same “class” as Ebola, having a 50% case/death rate compared to the 3.4% death rate (so far)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-05/how-bad-is-the-coronavirus-let-s-compare-with-sars-ebola-flu

However, the sample size for Ebola (an epidemic) was much smaller than the pandemic that we now know as Covid-19. 12,000 or so patients died of Ebola. How many so far for Covid-19? The president is saying that 100,000 to 200,000 for the US would be a good outcome.

Here’s a good read about the spread of Ebola.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/26/...ssons-covid-19

And how Misinformation, Community Skepticism Seriously Hampered Response Efforts.

As for Darwinism. Yes, it’s literally the fittest. Some of being fit is being smart.

Young people have been seriously infected and young people have died. Yes, it would appear that those with preexisting conditions seem to have been the majority of deaths, but the virus is not checking birth certificates or medical records. Reduce your exposure, reduce the chances of becoming a statistic.

Some of my professional peers worldwide have died in this war on viruses. I fought in the SARS and H1N1 wars. I don’t want to see my professional and non-professional colleagues put to any more risk than that which exists and that which existed pre-Covid-19.

As a professional (recently retired), I have fought and provided care with courage and compassion. I have no interest in fearmongering.

My interest is in providing a professional view to a current pandemic that threatens not just first responders, but to the public at large.

If anyone has a problem with this. Sorry. Move on. Don’t be a negative Ned or Nelly, and if you do have professional clinical credentials to argue my points, I’m sure we would all be happy to know them so as to put your criticisms into perspective.

DJ.

Registered Respiratory Therapist 1976-2018. Critical Care, acute care and clinical leader/ manager.

[Lac]

Keeping things in perspective then we all should STAY THE [Moderator Edit] Home.

Coops

[redcolorado]

These are the numbers that worry me. Total recovered in the US 8434, total deaths in the US 4633. This is almost a 35% death rate. I do not care what the CDC or any government agency says these are real numbers. Just my worry.

[NLOVNIT]

That is not a valid death rate. Your "recovered" numbers don't include those who had it but weren't tested or those who had it but didn't know they had it (asymptomatic). There are thousands upon thousands that fall in those 2 categories alone. Those are numbers we'll never know.

As the subject of this thread states "Keeping this in perspective" we need valid numbers for perspective, which are extremely hard to come by now. Invalid numbers only serve to up the panic level., which is not something we need.

Quite frankly, I'd take any numbers produced with a grain of salt as the sands are shifting too quickly.

Lori-

[Itchytoe]

Originally Posted by NLOVNIT

That is not a valid death rate. Your "recovered" numbers don't include those who had it but weren't tested or those who had it but didn't know they had it (asymptomatic). There are thousands upon thousands that fall in those 2 categories alone. Those are numbers we'll never know.

As the subject of this thread states "Keeping this in perspective" we need valid numbers for perspective, which are extremely hard to come by now. Invalid numbers only serve to up the panic level., which is not something we need.

Quite frankly, I'd take any numbers produced with a grain of salt as the sands are shifting too quickly.

Lori-

Uhh, yea, what she ^ said

[tigerGUY]

I hate stats people....other than CFB.

[redcolorado]

Originally Posted by NLOVNIT

That is not a valid death rate. Your "recovered" numbers don't include those who had it but weren't tested or those who had it but didn't know they had it (asymptomatic). There are thousands upon thousands that fall in those 2 categories alone. Those are numbers we'll never know.

As the subject of this thread states "Keeping this in perspective" we need valid numbers for perspective, which are extremely hard to come by now. Invalid numbers only serve to up the panic level., which is not something we need.

Quite frankly, I'd take any numbers produced with a grain of salt as the sands are shifting too quickly.

Lori-

I hope you are right. But my numbers come from The Center for System Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins. You are assuming they do not include everyone. What is the basis for your assumption?

[aether_one]

Originally Posted by redcolorado

These are the numbers that worry me. Total recovered in the US 8434, total deaths in the US 4633. This is almost a 35% death rate. I do not care what the CDC or any government agency says these are real numbers. Just my worry.

How do you get 35% when everybody else gets 1% to 2%?

[HopsBrewster]

Perspective of an over 60, essential industry worker, immunity compromised observer that has survived several deadly epidemics;
CV19 is deadly, particularly for certain groups. See my opening statement.
It's easily transmitted to everyone.
The statistics vary wildly from source to source and day to day, with no consistently reliable source. It's pointless to argue such nonsense.
Caution and taking precautions are prudent and wise.
People need people and, in some cases, isolation may be a cure worse than the disease. Isolation is not necessarily healthy.
Hysteria and overreaction are rampant. Too many living in anxiety and fear, not enough gratitude.
This whole situation is a terrible waste of a beautiful spring. I don't have a limitless number of springs to enjoy.
I, for one, refuse to live my days in terror. I will do all I can to live through this in a responsible manner, with pleasure and joy, and with a grateful heart.
This too shall pass.

[Steverino]

Originally Posted by redcolorado

I hope you are right. But my numbers come from The Center for System Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins. You are assuming they do not include everyone. What is the basis for your assumption?

I've been following the Johns Hopkins site too. But I'm not sure how you got your 35% figure... It currently says that in the US:
213,372 confirmed cases
4,757 deaths
8,474 recovered

That tells me that of the 213K confirmed cases, 4,757 ended in death, and so far another 8,474 have recovered. Presumably the remaining 200K are still in the process of either recovering or not. So my math (which might be wrong) says that the death rate is 2.22%...

My only other comment about this thread in general is that I think we all know there is an awful lot we don't know about this since we are still at the front end of it. Experts in such matters tell us that they often don't know for a year or more what the true impact is, and even then it is very nuanced (there's a great article in The Atlantic) about this.

I believe we must do our collective best to hit this thing and hit it hard in the hopes of making an impact. We should have done more sooner. As someone else has said, I would rather people say that we overreacted in an effort to save lives, than have them say that we did not do enough.

[redcolorado]

Originally Posted by tfryman

How do you get 35% when everybody else gets 1% to 2%?

Number of survived + number of deaths times 35% = almost the number of deaths. Everyone else is basing their numbers on the number infected vs number of deaths, or the number of deaths in past pandemics vs number of survived. But no one knows how many of those infected today will survive. I am only showing the ratio of deaths vs survived as of today. As more survive or die the ratio will change. I am not a scientist or a statistician, but I always question numbers. I really hope I am wrong, we will know in a couple of months. I do not mean to spread panic, but people need to think and stop blindly following the numbers they see in the news or on the internet. Question everything.

[redcolorado]

Originally Posted by Steverino

I've been following the Johns Hopkins site too. But I'm not sure how you got your 35% figure... It currently says that in the US:
213,372 confirmed cases
4,757 deaths
8,474 recovered

That tells me that of the 213K confirmed cases, 4,757 ended in death, and so far another 8,474 have recovered. Presumably the remaining 200K are still in the process of either recovering or not. So my math (which might be wrong) says that the death rate is 2.22%...

My only other comment about this thread in general is that I think we all know there is an awful lot we don't know about this since we are still at the front end of it. Experts in such matters tell us that they often don't know for a year or more what the true impact is, and even then it is very nuanced (there's a great article in The Atlantic) about this.

I believe we must do our collective best to hit this thing and hit it hard in the hopes of making an impact. We should have done more sooner. As someone else has said, I would rather people say that we overreacted in an effort to save lives, than have them say that we did not do enough.

Your math assumes all not dead will survive.

[Xmcdog]

To Excesses.
I have to thank you for your explanations.
Aside from taking many, many first aid courses at various levels I have no medical knowledge.
As you know the WHO and the medical profession in general has been warning about a coming pandemic for many years. Not if it is coming but when it comes.
To my mind it was obvious by the first week of febuary that we had a major issue on our hands. It took another month for the WHO to declare a pandemic. No sure of the exact date.There was little or no reaction from world governments.
It is obvious that there was no plan for this.
So my question is, why was there no plans for this type of thing?
Yes the medical profession has stepped up to a planned response. Very commendable, but the governments response was very fragmented. Canadian that is.
I thank you again.
I find this to be unforgivable.

[rarebear.nm]

Originally Posted by redcolorado

Number of survived + number of deaths times 35% = almost the number of deaths. Everyone else is basing their numbers on the number infected vs number of deaths, or the number of deaths in past pandemics vs number of survived. But no one knows how many of those infected today will survive. I am only showing the ratio of deaths vs survived as of today. As more survive or die the ratio will change. I am not a scientist or a statistician, but I always question numbers. I really hope I am wrong, we will know in a couple of months. I do not mean to spread panic, but people need to think and stop blindly following the numbers they see in the news or on the internet. Question everything.

OK, now you identified how you cam up with the 35%. You may compare any pairs of numbers you want, but always indicate what the numbers are. You are right that most people use a ratio of deaths/confirmed cases.

Statistics can be used correctly or otherwise. There are many forms or techniques of statistic calculations and analysis, each one may be appropriate to be used for certain problems. Frequently, it depends on exactly the question being asked. If that same data and summary is later used for a different question/purpose then it may be very misleading or totally wrong. That's part of how statistics can be used to "prove" anything, when it's used incorrectly. Unless you have some extensive training in statistical analysis and data sampling, you may get it very wrong.

Simple ratios are easy stuff in most cases and most people can understand them.

In this pandemic within the the US anyhow, we have pretty good counts on confirmed cases, deaths and individuals recovered from medical care. What is missing is the real total number that are infected with a mild case or are not showing any signs at all, but still spreading the virus. Without a good testing effort we will never know these numbers. Just like we don't know the real number of cases for prior pandemics, only the confirmed cases and deaths.