Keeping this in perspective

[Ray,IN]

As of today March 28, 2020.
Total confirmed and presumptive cases in the U.S.A. 85,356. Deaths 1,264
ref: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-us-americans/



Year total 2009. H1N1 epidemic.
Total hospitalizations 274,304. Total deaths 12,469.

ref:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

[Itchytoe]

So COVID-19 is currently batting a .100? That's pretty bad. We gotta help it out.




No, wait....

[TwoGrizz]

Originally Posted by Ray,IN

As of today March 28, 2020.
Total confirmed and presumptive cases in the U.S.A. 85,356. Deaths 1,264
ref: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-us-americans/



Year total 2009. H1N1 epidemic.
Total hospitalizations 274,304. Total deaths 12,469.

ref:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

[Excesses]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

See a pattern?

Denial is not a river in Eqypt.

[docj]

Originally Posted by Ray,IN

As of today March 28, 2020.
Total confirmed and presumptive cases in the U.S.A. 85,356. Deaths 1,264
ref: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-us-americans/

Year total 2009. H1N1 epidemic.
Total hospitalizations 274,304. Total deaths 12,469.

One number you omitted was that CDC estimates that there were ~60 million cases of H1N1 which means that the 12,469 deaths represent 0.02% In comparison the death rate from COVID-19 is being estimated as between 1 and 3 % which is quite a bit higher.

For purposes of discussion, let's assume that once again 60 million in the US get the virus. With the higher fatality rate that means that the number of deaths will be 0.6-1.8 million! By comparison the 12,469 deaths from H1N1 were just a drop in the bucket.

[Donskiman]

How many people will need to die from COVID-19 before some will consider the extreme actions taken by our government to be justified?

[docj]

Originally Posted by Donskiman

How many people will need to die from COVID-19 before some will consider the extreme actions taken by our government to be justified?

One key problem is that most people don't understand how powerful exponential growth can be. If each person with the virus infects 2 others, the growth over time would be astonishing.

For coronavirus infections, the doubling time in the United States has been about 2½ days. That means that, on average, the number of reported covid-19 cases doubles every 2½ days. (Part of the reason for the increase in cases is because of expanded testing, whereas the death count from covid-19, which also exhibits some aspects of exponential growth, more closely captures the spread and impacts of the virus itself.)

Following the trend to date, there are now over 100,000 case in the US as of Saturday, with a quarter of a million projected by the start of April. And at that rate, more than a million could be infected by April 10 or 11. With the presumed fatality rate, that will represent at least ~10,000 deaths.

Even that probably won't get the attention of some folks, but as the numbers grow the chances increase that everyone will have a friend or loved one who has the virus.

[Brad2018]

I don't understand why people keep comparing an entire epidemic to one that we have only been dealing with for three weeks.

H1N1 was considered mild in comparison and they had antiviral drugs that were helping patients within 10 days after the first reported case was discovered. It was also less contagious that Covid-19. Within four weeks of detecting H1N1 in 2009, the CDC had begun releasing health supplies from their stockpile that could prevent and treat influenza, and most states in the U.S. had labs capable of diagnosing H1N1 without verification by a CDC test.

[Itchytoe]

Originally Posted by docj

One number you omitted was that CDC estimates that there were ~60 million cases of H1N1 which means that the 12,469 deaths represent 0.02% In comparison the death rate from COVID-19 is being estimated as between 1 and 3 % which is quite a bit higher.

For purposes of discussion, let's assume that once again 60 million in the US get the virus. With the higher fatality rate that means that the number of deaths will be 0.6-1.8 million! By comparison the 12,469 deaths from H1N1 were just a drop in the bucket.

No, the mortality rate is not between 1 and 3 percent here in the states. It's 0.675% based on the numbers in the link of the OP. It's 0.558% according to this link as of the posting of my reply. It's well under 1%. In fact, we are just getting enough test kits to find out who actually has it, so in reality, it's very likely well under 0.5%. The number of infected is currently artificially very low and will remain that way simply because some people that get it are either asymptomatic or have symptoms of the common cold and nothing more. If we assume 60,000,000 people become infected, we're looking at about 360,000 deaths, not 0.6-1.8 million. Your numbers are between 2 and 5 times too high based on current information.

[Cumminsfan]

Originally Posted by Ray,IN

As of today March 28, 2020.
Total confirmed and presumptive cases in the U.S.A. 85,356. Deaths 1,264
ref: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-us-americans/



Year total 2009. H1N1 epidemic.
Total hospitalizations 274,304. Total deaths 12,469.

ref:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

I think you're missing the wrong perspective about the C-19. I believe it has a 15-17% hospitalization rate. From what I've read hospital run at about 68% capacity.
Even if the death rate was low its the hospitalization totals that're overwhelming the system.
Lack of beds and other necessities is whats hurting right now.

[scbwr]

We can quote different stats all day long and twice as long tomorrow BUT the bottom line is that this virus has the ability to kill a lot of people.

My wife and I don't want to be one of the stats, and equally as important, we don't want to be the ones passing it on to someone else and be responsible for their illness or worse.

It's time for EVERYONE to suck it up and act responsibly. Following the suggested guidelines is a lot less costly than the sacrifices that were made by our citizens defending this country during wars. And, I don't mean to slight the huge number of our fellow citizens that are suffering financially due to our economic shutdown. And, we should be sympathetic to so many families that have already suffered losses.

If we do what we need to do, we can get this situation under control. If we do that, we stand a lot better chance of resuming some level of normalcy that will allow folks to get back to work and take care of their families.

I find the level of denial and/or selfishness by many to be disgraceful, especially by those who aren't being financially impacted or dealing with sick family members.

We are capable of doing so much more!

That's my position. If the moderator feels that I've overstepped forum guidelines, the I have no problem with my post being deleted as I know moderating any forum is a challenging task!.

Just my opinion.

[docj]

Originally Posted by Itchytoe

. If we assume 60,000,000 people become infected, we're looking at about 360,000 deaths, not 0.6-1.8 million.

Are you saying that 360,000 deaths are more acceptable than 600,000? All I was trying to point out was that COVID-19 is more significant than H1N1 and you've made my point by demonstrating that it will be at least an order of magnitude worse with respect to deaths.

[winniman]

The report you quoted said it was from yesterday. Todays numbers have increased. The ones I got are 124k infected, 2211 died, and 3231 recovered. That quite an increase. I have been recording the totals. The deaths in the US have doubled in three days. Here is the site I have been watching. The totals have increased since I wrote them down earlier.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

[Ray,IN]

Originally Posted by docj

One number you omitted was that CDC estimates that there were ~60 million cases of H1N1 which means that the 12,469 deaths represent 0.02% In comparison the death rate from COVID-19 is being estimated as between 1 and 3 % which is quite a bit higher.

For purposes of discussion, let's assume that once again 60 million in the US get the virus. With the higher fatality rate that means that the number of deaths will be 0.6-1.8 million! By comparison the 12,469 deaths from H1N1 were just a drop in the bucket.

Docj, I merely posted the links to numbers, which BTW are different time-frames. When calculating statistics, just one missed parameter makes the end result useless.
My quick N dirty calculations indicates to me this will be several times more severe than the H1N1 virus. One missing parameter is population density increase.(proximity)
An aside, Our family Dr. (internist) called last Tuesday and told us I was in the highest risk group for severe complications and death, which is; elderly male with heart problems.(60%)