Rv's in high demand after pandemic?

[PorscheLover]

I’ve only been in the hobby for a short time and my thoughts are I wouldn’t mind the industry becoming a bit less popular given the challenges I’ve seen finding camping spots. Of course I’m mostly a weekend camper and given I live in Florida I get it that my state is popular with snowbirds.

[B Bob]

I bought our RV in the last big downturn. I had money to buy when not many did, so I got a very good deal. I would guess that lots of people will buy to snap up good deals. Maybe more in the lower end of the market.

I suspect that this pandemic is going to change the World. I would guess that crowded cities in the US will not be thought of as good places to live for quite some time. This is especially true of NYC. Living in the country will become quite fashionable. People who make a living planning for or building dense housing in city centers may be looking for a new line of work. Wyoming which currently is the only State with zero Corona deaths might be looked upon as a pretty good place to live. Cruise lines are toast for a while, maybe a long while.

On the other hand some things are going to boom. Walmart stock has held up quite well during this and so has Costco. Amazons business is booming. Higher education through the internet is getting established by this virus. Doctors making house calls through the internet. And travel within the USA by RV.

After the economy rights itself I would guess RVs will sell very well. So snap up the bargains now.

I can hardly wait to get rolling as soon as the shelter in place orders lift.

[bobfrommaine]

Gosh, you mean RV'ing isn't already the favorite way to vacation?
Bob '14 37F Winnebago Adventurer; Jeep toad

[Norvyet]

Indeed - The RV industry is definitely going to suffer from a down economy. Long term the overall RV industry is also going to experience what I call the "Harley Davidson Affect" -- many boomers ,and other high income earners, are aging and slowly riding off into the sunset and taking the market with them . HD , knowing this, is scrambling to figure out how to adapt to a future market in which the younger generations have no interest in their products and likely could not afford them anyway.The same can be said for RV's --- many younger people look at them with disdain especially Class A motorhomes with their poor fuel mileage and large carbon footprint. RV's are one of those 'like to have products" as opposed to "must have products" and will likely take quite a while to recover while the economy recovers and gets back into bull country.Kinda like being in the "last hired, first fired " categories. With everyone else's IRA/401K taking heavy hits even those of us with comfortable retirement incomes will be hesitant to purchase or own an RV and do not wish to spend our golden years searching endlessly for a campsite or dump station. I currently live in a sticks & bricks home and the negative impact caused by the lockdown , shelter-in-place orders has been zero.

[hhansen59]

I tend to think of myself as about a 60% optimist but I think the RV industry is going to experience a long long recovery and it won't be the same. Many have stated their thoughts on our generation and the huge rigs we use, but those days are dying. Younger folks are much more in tune with the environment and will not drive the fuel burners we love. Unfortunately the current worldwide crash will take much longer to recover than anyone imagines as it will go on and on in all countries worldwide. We (U.S.)probably will stop the spread but reinfections will come back around as most nations are doing nothing to try and contain the virus. Our hope is a vaccine which will come but it will take a very long time. We will be RVing again but the future will be different and not what we have been experiencing during our golden age.

[jacwjames]

I was following this thread but was hesitant to post, but here goes.

Prior to the Covid 19 hitting I spent a lot of time reading about business, investing, and general economics. I consider myself fairly knowledgeable. Two statistics I kept reading about was that a majority of people in the USA did not have an emergency fund and the high amount of CC debt.

Well what does everyone think has happened with these people and even if they do receive part of the stimulus package and/or unemployment it won't cover their normal expenses. They will be in very tough shape and it will take years to recover. This will affect a large percentage ofcitizens, it will devastate a lot of families.

Based on this I can't see there will be a significant amount of disposable income or appetite to go into debt to buy and RV or spend money traveling. Just my thoughts.


Personally I consider myself a fairly conservative/prudent person and invested my retirement accounts in well known funds with a fairly balanced portfolio. I check my funds at the end of each month. In the last 2 months I've lost ~20% of my retirement savings in these accounts. But at least I had savings to loose and I didn't loose all of it yet. I know I am better off then most people and my thoughts go out to all of them in these tough times.

[RossWilliams]

I think its only a matter of time before authorities ban most travel, particularly to rural areas. Already towns in Minnesota are asking people with seasonal homes to stay away. In Norway, its a crime to use your seasonal home if you aren't a permanent resident.

RV's are going to be even less welcome. Rv parks are going to be seen as threats to public health in nearby towns. The first time someone from an RV park is a source for an outbreak its game over.

Its way too early to be talking about "when its over". We are barely at the beginning of the beginning. Apparently when Cuomo was talking about New York reaching its peak, the data guys told him it was just the first plateau. About 1% of New York state residents have been tested positive, "herd immunity" that will contain the virus probably requires closer to 80% to wither have the disease or be immunized. They have a long way to go.

No one knows what the exit from the current shutdown looks like. They just hope something will happen to allow people to resume their lives. But hope is not a strategy.

[rcnuts]

Rv's in high demand after pandemic?
Thats the OP's title for this thread and thats what ill respond to. Many already have deviated from the question.
This thread is the "mother of all" who knows threads. There are way too many variables to forecast this. We all know what those variables are but how they play out versus time is anyones guess. I see RV demand in the near / midterm future a total crapshoot as far a guessing goes. Time will tell.

[Lez8ma]

I agree. I would think cruise ships may be empty for a while. Its getting off season for them anyway except the river cruises which are much better anyway I think! I agree that the airlines I hope will be back quickly.

[Freeezen]

I tend to think people will shed their RVs if the quarantine lasts too long. How long is too long is the real question?

[Captn John]

Originally Posted by Lez8ma

I agree. I would think cruise ships may be empty for a while. Its getting off season for them anyway except the river cruises where are much better anyway I think! I agree that the airlines I hope will be back quickly.

Cruise lines stating 2021 bookings are UP!

[saddlesore]

Being fully retired and true "Full Timers" (ie; We are "house-less... not Home-less")
We just decided to cut way back on the traveling for the next 5 months, so snagged a monthly and are hunkering down.
Our incomes are sufficient,

Our investments are considered very conservative and the market boom/bust cycle should not effect our financial positions in the foreseeable future..
Our motto has always been.."If We do not have the cash..We do not need it"


I am concerned that those who have financed a "Luxury Item" while carrying an already high debt load....in this case a RV, without a stable financial base may pay a steep personal and financial penalty.


My observation is to take the time span that the markets drop and multiply by 2 or 3 to find the time needed for market/investment recovery.

[petersfp01]

Originally Posted by Waterford

As a RVer wannabe, this has been an interesting thread to follow. My wife and I cruised SW Texas in a rental car staying in VRBO-type accommodations in January. We got interested in all the RVs we saw and wondered about taking the plunge. I’ve been watching this site since to learn from y’all. Of course, my telephoto lens into the future is a little blurry, but I expect we will see a slow recovery and that some manufacturers will have to close. I expect to see a buyer’s market for both new and used units for some time.

As cruising boaters for many years in the Pacific Northwest, I see many parallels between the boating and RV markets. As many boomers, like us, are graying-out of our watery ways, we find that the market for the boats of our lifestyle is evaporating; younger people are simply not following our recreational paths. The “superyacht” market (120’+) remains strong but sales in more affordable classes are dwindling. New builds are down except for some niche markets (i.e. Ranger Tugs). I expect the economic downturn will only exacerbate this trend.

I wonder if our kids, many living in the gig economy, share more uncertainty about their economic futures, but also the global futures of energy use and consequences. However, there are places I want to explore and maybe a small RV is the most accessible way to do it. Maybe I’ll see you down the road sometime in the near future. Thanks for all the good info I’m gleaning from this forum!

-Doug

Interesting analogy. We are still seasonally cruising in the NW on our boat and on our first extended cruise with our land yacht. Agree the marine side retires first, but that market is very dynamic. I am seeing more of the techie money graduating from the ski/speed genre to the weekend family cruisers. On the RV side being in the coach on the road during this event makes me think it's a great place to be. We have a pretty controlled environment and were able to pick the location we wanted to hole up without being stuck in our home state, where we definitely didn't want to be. No one knows what's next or for how long but at least we have options we wouldn't have without being mobile in the RV. Historically when the market turns it turns fast. Very fast. And as with many of the previous posts, most don't change their stripes. Hopefully there are some other vagabonds or escapists that will buy our vintage model.

2018 BayStar 3113

[richard5933]

Originally Posted by RossWilliams

I think its only a matter of time before authorities ban most travel, particularly to rural areas. Already towns in Minnesota are asking people with seasonal homes to stay away. In Norway, its a crime to use your seasonal home if you aren't a permanent resident.

RV's are going to be even less welcome. Rv parks are going to be seen as threats to public health in nearby towns. The first time someone from an RV park is a source for an outbreak its game over...

Big difference between what happens in other countries and what happens in the US. To bar travel between the states would almost instantly bring up constitutional challenges. We have laws in the US which allow for forced quarantines for individuals known to be contagious, but we don't have laws which allow for healthy individuals to be forcibly quarantined.

If you look at the recent 'bans' being enacted in various states, you'll see that they don't actually bar entry. They are worded to require a 14-day 'voluntary' quarantine for people entering the state. Even the roadblocks being set up in Florida right now are not intended to stop anyone from entering, simply to inform everyone of the 14-day quarantine. I have seen reports of a 14-day quarantine being enforced, including with a GPS ankle bracelet, but that was for someone known to have been exposed to covid-19 by family members. Remember, if we are allowed to go out for groceries and other essential items, it's technically not a quarantine in the traditional sense of the word.

Once this crisis is over and things begin to return to normal, traveling by RV will have the same rules as traveling by car. There may be elected officials from various vacation areas telling non-residents to stay away, but it will be difficult for them to enforce this on healthy people.

You are correct though that if a new infection hot spot is sparked by a traveling vacationer, things will get very heated. I don't think it will matter through how the vacationer arrived - car, plane, RV, bus, etc.

To me the biggest factor that will determine the demand for RVs after the covid-19 pandemic will be money. Do RV owners have enough spare cash to continue paying for maintenance, campground rental fees, fuel, etc.? Do they have enough cash to pay their normal daily expenses? If not, you will likely see lots of used RVs hitting the market as people try and cash out.