The downside of shelter in place has begun

[DandyDon]

We spend Sept and Oct in northeast Montana every year. Maybe not this year?? We, and a lot of other folks have our rigs registered in Montana but I guess they check your drivers license?? Are there traffic checks at every highway leading into the state??
The other reason I say maybe not this year is we stay in a small town and everybody knows you're from out of town. We've always been welcomed by the local folks and they appreciated the money we pumped into the local economy. Not sure if that'll be the case anymore and I'm not comfortable being somewhere where I'm not welcome. Times, they are a changin'!

[TechWriter]

Originally Posted by kcdogger

What I really dread is finding out after all this is actually over that closing the country was a huge over-reaction and all of this had little to no actual benefit . . . Hope everyone thinks it was worth it.

It sounds like you think we may have over reacted. If that's the case, what would you have done differently? (With, of course, the benefits of hindsight)

[1320Fastback]

Soup plantation closing is a major disappointment and I drive by their HQ daily on the way to my own job. It was a great restaurant and really enjoyed overstuffing myself there.

[ihc1470]

Originally Posted by TechWriter

It sounds like you think we may have over reacted. If that's the case, what would you have done differently? (With, of course, the benefits of hindsight)

Well in 1968 they did things a little different. Do you remember the pandemic of 1968 when the world came unglued?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html



The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift.

[CamJam1]

Based on the first article below it seems a lot of folks must be ignoring the 14-day quarantine rule.

I was also puzzled to hear that RV sales are way up. Not sure how that could be when most state and national park campgrounds are closed and the unemployment rate is around 15% (or even higher by now.)

https://helenair.com/outdoors/montan...bf029f77c.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-profitability

[MO Fred]

Originally Posted by Jake21

Some states are asking people coming into their states to self quarantine, but is there really any way they can enforce? I don’t think so.

Exactly.... unless the National Guard is out in full force. Our state, Missouri, has been cleared to reopen but it’s the national chain stores that are dragging their feet. People are out running around all over the place and did so even during the lockdown.

[kcdogger]

Originally Posted by twogypsies

I've wondered what if a Montana resident left the state and re-entered. Does he also have to quarantine for 14 days? Who's to know he was out of state if he has the home license plates? Authorities didn't follow him from the border to home. He could have easily acquired the virus when he was out of state.

Enforcing this would be extremely difficult even for a RV park. Someone could say he's been in the state already for 14 days so he doesn't have to quarantine at this RV park.

Enforcement is actually simple. The occupancy at open motels and RV parks is probably less than 10% of normal. A zealous health department inspector or public safety officer or the town Mrs. Kravits will immediately note a newly arrived vehicle, be it a fifth wheel and truck at the RV park or an out of state SUV in the parking lot of the Best Western. If the fifth wheel's truck is gone during the day, they have violated the order. Same thing if the SUV is in a different parking spot later in the day. The quarantine order in Montana requires the lodging business to inform any arriving guest of the rules, so you can't use "I didn't Know" as an excuse.
The order specifically states that law enforcement has the power to vigorously enforce that order. I suppose you could try and lie your way out of it by saying you have been in the state already for over 14 days, but it wouldn't take much for law enforcement to disprove your claim. I have no idea what action they might actually take be it a fine or like that lady in Dallas sentence you to jail if you repeatedly violated the order. If they did put you in the county jail, what could you do about it? You would likely be multiple states removed from any attorney you know and pretty much at the mercy of those who incarcerated you. For all I know, instead of such action drawing outrage, it might make the locals cheer that some out of stater, intent on infecting their families, is getting their just rewards.
From the business owner's perspective, the order is generated by the health department, the exact same people who issue and approve our licenses to operate each year. If they felt we were giving a wink and a nod to their "life saving health directives" would they respond by quashing our licenses to operate? Could they, in the interest of public safety, require the business to immediately report to law enforcement any guest who leaves the premises without checking out if they hadn't been on site for a minimum of 15 days? I don't know and don't want to find out.

[kcdogger]

Originally Posted by TechWriter

It sounds like you think we may have over reacted. If that's the case, what would you have done differently? (With, of course, the benefits of hindsight)

You don't even need hindsight. Early on, it was apparent to the experts that severe COVID cases were concentrated in the elderly and those with co-morbidities. If the actions taken were directed exclusively at minimizing exposure for those in the high risk categories the rest of the country could have gone about their business. It is really simple math and logistics. If only one out of every 100 citizens is at severe risk of serious complications and that one citizen can be identified it is easier to keep that 1 person away from the other 99 than it is to keep the 99 away from the one. Instead of spending 3 trillion dollars trying to keep the entire economy afloat we could have spent much less than 1 trillion catering to the every need of the vulnerable population and had, at worst, the exact same morbidity result we have today and a fully functioning economy.

[Brob]

I was unaware of the restrictions on campgrounds; I can see how this puts a resort owner in a very precious position. Not to mention the campers whose "vacation" consists of sitting in your RV for 2 weeks. I have a couple friends who live in their RVs as they are traveling health care workers, it makes me wonder how they'll fare on the next assignment.

One thought that comes to mind is that perhaps those of you who are resort owners could perhaps offer additional services to help those on mandatory quarantine. I don't think it would be too easy to pack 14 days worth of provisions in a RV. Perhaps a small charge for doing errands such as shopping and laundry in addition to propane refills and the like. I'm sure it would be most appreciated by those who would otherwise be trapped with little resources.

I imagine this is a most disheartening situation for you campground owners. My wife and I have made a point of meeting owners of private campgrounds where we stay, we prefer the mom and pop places over the chains for sure. We've often dreamed of owning a campground ourselves. I know it's a labor of love, my heart goes out to you.

[Xmcdog]

Not sure how much of a hit we will take. I was closing to retire but now I'm considering reopening to try and recover. I'm 74.

[sanda]

Originally Posted by kcdogger

You don't even need hindsight. Early on, it was apparent to the experts that severe COVID cases were concentrated in the elderly and those with co-morbidities. If the actions taken were directed exclusively at minimizing exposure for those in the high risk categories the rest of the country could have gone about their business. It is really simple math and logistics. If only one out of every 100 citizens is at severe risk of serious complications and that one citizen can be identified it is easier to keep that 1 person away from the other 99 than it is to keep the 99 away from the one. Instead of spending 3 trillion dollars trying to keep the entire economy afloat we could have spent much less than 1 trillion catering to the every need of the vulnerable population and had, at worst, the exact same morbidity result we have today and a fully functioning economy.

At one time 48% of those hospitalized with the virus were under 50. Though the mortality rate is far lower they were definitely carriers. You evidently haven't been keeping up with the news because now we have a major problem with young children close to death.
One other point- because this virus was never seen before no one knew what was instore. We did know it was highly contagious and acted accordingly. The experts said it would kill 2+ million if we did nothing. I'm sure they didn't want to kill our record economy by shelter in place but who are we layman to say it was all BS?

[kcdogger]

Originally Posted by sanda

At one time 48% of those hospitalized with the virus were under 50. Though the mortality rate is far lower they were definitely carriers. You evidently haven't been keeping up with the news because now we have a major problem with young children close to death.
One other point- because this virus was never seen before no one knew what was instore. We did know it was highly contagious and acted accordingly. The experts said it would kill 2+ million if we did nothing. I'm sure they didn't want to kill our record economy by shelter in place but who are we layman to say it was all BS?

90% of all hospitalizations in April had co-morbidities. Per my post, concentrate all our efforts on those most at risk and let the economy return to whatever the new normal will be. The fact is we cannot all stay locked up until the virus is gone and there are actions that can be taken that mitigate exposing the most vulnerable while not destroying businesses and people's livelyhoods.
While ill children are truly a serious concern the numbers are very low and there has not been any convincing evidence that COVID is the only contributing factor, there may be underlying conditions also in play.

[ShelbyM]

I think it's pretty clear we are about to find out the true nature of the virus. Not everyone is inclined to rip and roar and act as if the thing has been overblown but there seem to be plenty who are. A few weeks of "open up" and we'll be able to either breathe a sigh of relief or a gasp of ( Moderator Edit ) ..

[Coarsegold]

I would say that when or if the national parks open up it will be really just a day visit to hike or walk a little. Read today that the company that provides all the workers in Yosemite have let go almost everyone and told them to vacate the park by the end of May. That means no camping, hotels, horse stables, stores, tow truck drivers, mechanics and shuttle buses. The Wawona hotel was scheduled to be closed all year for complete electrical re-wiring anyway.