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Old 04-09-2020, 05:15 AM   #1
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What if we got this wrong.

I'm not saying we did but what if the death toll and infection rate is way below what was predicted. Some have said up to 35 million would get infected. Perhaps without social distancing and testing that would have happened.
People say we can't compare this to the flu. C-19 is much more contagious. We have a vaccine for the flu, but it's not totally effective. We will have a vaccine for C-19 but will it mutate making it less effective? Authorities in NYC were saying many will die if we don't get ventilators. Private companies are retooling to make ventilators. Some are saying we are reaching the top of the curve and perhaps those ventilators will not be needed. I don' know.

Many people will loose their jobs, some will never get the income they had before when they return to work. Taxes will pay for the stimulus package and other govt costs associated with C-19 and taxes will likely raise.
If C-19 comes back in the fall as some are predicting are you going to self isolate and will we shut down the economy again? We won't likely have a vaccine widely available that soon.

I am in good health but because I'm over 65 I'm in the high risk group. I don't want to get C-19 or the flu and I get a flu shot every year. But being retired my quality of life is not affected by my income so I can self isolate and I will again if necessary.

Just some thoughts. If this comes back again I don't think people will accept shutting down the economy like we have. Some perhaps many will risk getting sick and keeping their jobs. I think we are going to have to have a national discussion on what we can expect the next time around. And this discussion as painful as it will be will have to include that we will have to accept some deaths. One things for sure, you and I probably won't be part of that discussion.
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Old 04-09-2020, 05:49 AM   #2
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Totally agree. The news coming out about millions having already lost their incomes, business closings, markets in the tank, 401k’s and IRA’s In the dumper. We have to find ways for people to get back to work, and quickly. I keep hearing we have to listen to the experts and scientists (and a few well known multi-billionaires) and shut everything down perhaps for months. Shutting everything down is not necessary, and killing the economy and I fear that President Trump is exactly right when he says the cure may be worse than the disease.

There has to be a way a hairdresser can serve customers safely, restaurants surely can find ways to serve food to patrons. There may have to be better spacing between tables, touch less ordering and payments. All using technologies that exist today but needs to be more widespread. We need smart people who understand business and technology to help figure out how to let more people work now, and how to accelerate the return to work for millions.

Masks, gloves, some level of distancing may become part of life for a while. But everyone staying home is not the answer to anything.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:58 AM   #3
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I agree with the comments this far, and like timjet, I too am retired and can hopefully sustain the down time. However, if the economy continues to tank. My income will be affected. For those on SS, drawing pensions that are government based, even those that are economy based, will be affected to some degree. At some point, if it hasn't already passed, we as a nation will lose the ability to sustain the coming tax increases, and will necessarily need to make cuts. I am no economist, but I do see an alarming situation on the horizon if we don't go back to work soon.

If you recall what happened after September 11, how our lives changed, I also see that happening with this C-19 situation. Schools are learning a different method of learning, churches are having to rethink how services are conducted, which could lead to a whole different picture of what we currently accept as normal.

Times, they be changing!
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:39 AM   #4
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People are dying, as if we were at war. Hospitals can barely handle the load, and until the last few days, new cases everywhere have been rising. Deaths follow new cases, and our deaths per day is still rising. We are not taking this seriously enough. People who are working are catching covid-19 an dying. We all want this to be over, but we need to do a few things:
- see the slope of new cases and deaths decreasing, showing that the virus is not still expanding in our communities.
- know that the hospitals are not overwhelmed.
- wear masks and gloves, meaning they must be available, whether homemade or professionally made.

This definitely sucks, but itís something none of us have seen in our lifetimes, and it is going to keep killing people until thereís a cure or vaccine.

I believe that anywhere from 50-80% of people who need ventilators never get off them. So donít think a ventilator is going to save your life. Thatís a last ditch effort.
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:48 AM   #5
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Do we want to live the rest of our lives with total isolation. Do you want the quality of life that brings? Then you get the virus off a package delivery.
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:03 AM   #6
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Getting some news reports questioning the severity of the shutdonw and how the models are lloking to be much higher than reality. Some European countries are already sharting to open back up slowly. One small point is that Oregon thought their 668 ventilators would not be sufficient but turned out they were not needed and they shipped 150 to NYC. They may not be needed there. Probably what will happen is that when all the new ventilalors which are being built by non-ventilalor manufacturers arrive, they will not be needed.

Questions being raised by doctors that ventilators may not be neccessary for some cases and could make the patient's condition worse.

Still lots of unknowns out there but it may be correct that the cure is worse than the virus.
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:07 AM   #7
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Their talking about a plan that lets people who had the disease(and have antibodies) return to work, and apparently there is a test for that and is ready to go shortly. For me personally, I won't be taking any chances till I get the vaccine which is 18 months away. I'm 68 and in good health with no co-morbidity's, but I was a germ phobe even before this.
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:08 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mknmike View Post
People are dying, as if we were at war. Hospitals can barely handle the load, and until the last few days, new cases everywhere have been rising. Deaths follow new cases, and our deaths per day is still rising. We are not taking this seriously enough. People who are working are catching covid-19 an dying. We all want this to be over, but we need to do a few things:
- see the slope of new cases and deaths decreasing, showing that the virus is not still expanding in our communities.
- know that the hospitals are not overwhelmed.
- wear masks and gloves, meaning they must be available, whether homemade or professionally made.

This definitely sucks, but it’s something none of us have seen in our lifetimes, and it is going to keep killing people until there’s a cure or vaccine.

I believe that anywhere from 50-80% of people who need ventilators never get off them. So don’t think a ventilator is going to save your life. That’s a last ditch effort.
Sadly The numbers I've seen are that 80% of those on ventilator will die. The ventilator itself can cause damage It's a last ditch effort and of the 20% that do live, many evidently will have serious respiratory issues the rest of their life and need oxygen etc. By the time all the new respirators come on line they won't be needed it appears. NY isnt at capacity and the hospital ship is virtually empty. Isolation has helped no doubt, but the economic cost I fear will be felt much longer. We need to look at and plan better for pandemics
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:56 AM   #9
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It's to early to tell but if recent data is correct we may well have over reacted. Again to soon to have reliable data but if when this is over what can we learn so as to prevent a similar over or even under reaction next time.
I sure hope a federal investigation is done to determine what we did wrong and did right.

For example as was mentioned earlier, a Navy hospital ship is sent to NYC and sits almost empty. Is our ability at the highest levels to predict those kinds of needs so incapable of doing so that perhaps we loose confidence in those institutions that make those decisions.
What if a terrorist group were able to set off a small nuclear bomb. Would our reaction be like this which is more and more appearing to be a reaction of panic.

I am not blaming anyone nor am I offering any solutions because it's not over yet and reliable data is months away. But I think our reaction to this pandemic should be studied at the highest level.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:03 AM   #10
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I am good with any thought of over reaction. Things would certainly be a lot different if we we less reactive and you can be certain that there are folks at the highest level focusing on it and on a plan to minimize a reoccurrence. I do feel that in the next few weeks things will start to move forward at a cautious rate.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:08 AM   #11
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I think the key to getting back to normal and avoiding another shutdown is the ability to test on a wide scale. Infected people could be isolated and everyone else could get back to their regular lives. There have been some reports that testing may soon be available at places like Walgreens. I think the testing capabilities will be available long before a vaccine comes out.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:11 AM   #12
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It's to early to tell but if recent data is correct we may well have over reacted. Again to soon to have reliable data but if when this is over what can we learn so as to prevent a similar over or even under reaction next time.
I sure hope a federal investigation is done to determine what we did wrong and did right.

For example as was mentioned earlier, a Navy hospital ship is sent to NYC and sits almost empty. Is our ability at the highest levels to predict those kinds of needs so incapable of doing so that perhaps we loose confidence in those institutions that make those decisions.
What if a terrorist group were able to set off a small nuclear bomb. Would our reaction be like this which is more and more appearing to be a reaction of panic.

I am not blaming anyone nor am I offering any solutions because it's not over yet and reliable data is months away. But I think our reaction to this pandemic should be studied at the highest level.
I read or heard from a scientist(please don't ask for a cite, I've seen way to many to isolate where I heard/read it) that if isolation works, it will appear that we "overreacted". There is some logic to that, I think. I'm thinking folks in Detroit, NYC, NOLA, Miami, Albany, GA, and others may not think we overreacted.

That said, I'd really like to hit a brew pub about now. I'm having withdrawal.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:27 AM   #13
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its way to early to be thinking about blaming anyone.
there is plenty, and none to go around.
what we need now is common sense, prayers, and compassion. help those around you that really need your help. share what you have, but take care of yourself and family first.
we have heard the warnings about supermarkets having about a three day supply on the shelves. we have heard the warnings of those who take prepping for disasters to what some would call extreme.
i believe in being prepared. i keep a couple of months supply of canned essential foods on hand and rotate them as we buy replacements. i keep our freezer full.
i try to keep a couple of months of pay inreserve, so that if i am incapacitated, i can pay my bills. i also believe in self preservation, so i keep second amendment items on hand also.
most of us do not have a crisis of this proportion happen in our life time, but its good to use some forethought.
i dont believe what i do is hoarding, because i share what i have with family, and neighbors, who werent prepared.
as an old boy scout, you cant beat being prepared.
if anyone needs help with their hwh system, please call me at 602 549 3638, or email at pfmaddox@att.net
there is never a charge for my service here.
god bless all of you, and pray for our first responders.
and wash your hands
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:37 AM   #14
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We will get through this. Yes it is serious and people will die from it.
It was obvious that it was bad at the end of January, a week later it was a pandemic yet WHO did nothing.
Stopping the flights from China was a good step, as was doing the same from Europe. Unfortunately it was too late.

So now we have to deal with it. My optimistic view has been for it to be over or close to it by August or September. A more realistic estimation is April next year. Possibly even the following April. No one knows and this timeline is only my best guess. I just hope and pray that I am wrong.
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