2023-EV

[radar]

Originally Posted by KJR

Why is it so important to get an EV toad?

Depends on the person. An EV is a superior driving experience as far as performance, tech and convenience. Those who are used to that at home would probably like it on the road as well. We had a little EV as a toad for almost 5 years but we towed it on a trailer behind our pusher. We enjoyed having it with us. We since sold the combo and went to a small trailer and an EV tow vehicle. Different kind of camping now but works for us.

[DrivingDan]

With PM magnets most EV’s don’t freewheel, you’d need an induction motor for that. Only time I see that used is for really big EV’s like the Hummer where I think they have a third induction motor which kicks in at high speeds, and idles otherwise. Except I think some early Teslas were induction, but they’re less efficient so not used generally. So basically towing an EV behind your RV would suck your battery. Or would it charge it at the expense of your gas tank? Anyhow not a great idea I think.

[darnold9999]

In our Tesla I am pretty sure we can turn off regeneration via software. Not sure what that actually does so not going to "test" it by towing it.

We are replacing our existing vehicles with EV's as they age out. Not because anyone is forcing us to, but because, as Radar says, they are just better vehicles for what we use them for. Performance is WAY better than any 4 wheel vehicles I have ever driven and very close to some of the crazier 2 wheeled ones, handling is not quite as nice as my two seater sports car but with all the weight low to the ground it is better than most and you get to drive by gas stations without spending any time or $. Plug it in at home overnight - WAY cheaper and WAY easier for day to day driving. Longer trips take a tiny bit more planning - today - so you can stop, charge and do something else at the same time but in the near future even that will be a non issue.

Why would you buy a new ICE vehicle if you have access to home or work charging? At the moment unless you are hauling really heavy loads an EV is just better technology and that technology is getting better every year.

Not being able to tow 4 down may make us keep an ICE vehicle for a while but I am betting someone will fix that or I will go the trailer route at some point. No particular rush to make that change as I need a pickup and the Ford Lightning is a bit too much truck for what I need.

It would be nice if the current toad could be replaced by an EV without going the trailer route. Looking at the Jeep EV due out in a couple of years, but I also suspect they will go with multiple motors rather than a mechanical transfer case so I doubt that will be the solution.

[KJR]

EV towing example
https://imgur.com/a/i5nJD9g

If you must tow an EV via a trailer and need to charge at an RV park rather than twiddling your thumbs waiting at a charging station, this 3 year video might be of interest.

https://youtu.be/IPyFwH-hJbo

[MichaelBarb]

Originally Posted by darnold9999

We are replacing our existing vehicles with EV's as they age out.

I think the key is the phrase "age out". We have always purchased our vehicles new and kept them for over 10 years. I do not want to invest all that money in an ICE and have it go obsolete in less than 10 years. It is obvious than EV's will dominate in 10 years. Not sure how many years it will take but definitely less than 10. I expect in 10 years the price of gas will be outrageous as less people use it.

Taking a real risk on the PHEV. My wife can make her round trip commute on EV only. Whether we will be able to maintain it is another question. Also, I expect in 10 years the resale value will be zero. At 11 years and 80K miles we got enough on trade in of the ICE to cover maintenance for the last 2 years, barely. I have little hope to come out that well for the hybrid.

[dbircky]

How will evs dominate in ten years? The average age of vehicles in America is 12 years old. AVERAGE age. The ev market is about 3% of the total new vehicle market. Even the most optimistic estimate put it at 30% by 2030 and 50% by 2050.

My estimate is significantly slower growth. Amazon is already scaling back ev delivery van orders (one of the best case use for a bev). Rivian is on life support. Lordstown motors is almost out of money and severely missed all their production & sales goals. Lucid isn’t, they have a self admitted “demand problem”. Trevor Milton crashed his truck company after selling just a few. GM has admitted they can’t make money on bev without taxpayer dollars. Okay

Thinking of adoption curves, we’re barely out of the Innovators step, and just starting with the Early Adopters. But keep in mind the adoption curve is always missing on vital axis - time.

Historically speaking bevs were about 30% of the market 100 years ago. Then came electric starters, and the ease of refueling. Electric cars disappeared pretty fast. Currently the convenience factor isn’t there for bev for most people. 34% of Americans rent. They aren’t going to put in chargers on property they don’t own.

[DrivingDan]

Originally Posted by dbircky

How will evs dominate in ten years? The average age of vehicles in America is 12 years old.

Recent number (or at least google search headline now), traditionally the number is 9 years to my understanding. At least when I researched such things a decade ago that was the standard number - it’s probably gone up b/c during the last three years it’s been hard to get a car.

Amazon is already scaling back ev delivery van orders (one of the best case use for a bev). Rivian is on life support.

I think it’s more like a realistic build rate. They have the same number of orders as I understand it, but given the speed at which Rivian can ramp they’ve scaled expectations, and most probably want to diversify to GM’s BrightDrop which is the segment leader. Otherwise Rivian has two vehicles, they’d be having trouble now no matter what.

Lordstown motors is almost out of money and severely missed all their production & sales goals.

The company that got caught making a fake demo car, weren’t they? That company was never a serious effort, it’s been nothing but mishaps and their truck is a meh.

Lucid isn’t, they have a self admitted “demand problem”.

Lucid has a single specialty super expensive car, naturally they’ve have a demand problem

GM has admitted they can’t make money on bev without taxpayer dollars.

Excuse me, GM has repeatably said they will reach breakeven in 2025, unfortunately that’s getting pushed a bit because of trouble training battery staff. And they’ve got hundreds of thousands of reservations, as a automotive insider said “when’s the last time we had that happen??”

These are kind of cherry picked examples that aren’t something you can extrapolate from. Ford - which just slammed together an architecture for a few models, but quickly ramped production is selling them to such huge demand they turned the company on it.

Thinking of adoption curves, we’re barely out of the Innovators step, and just starting with the Early Adopters.

Bah! We’re long past the early adopter stage. I was a ‘middle adopter’ six years ago, ten years ago the Tesla and leaf buyers were early. Hell we’ve got farmers buying 150 Lightnings, I’m seeing them everywhere around here now.

Those of us watching this industry - me for the last 30 years, clearly we’ve hit the hockey puck inflection. Norway is already at something like 90% adoption, everybody is studying them to see how it happened.

[theoldwizard]

So want kind of range are Tesla owners get in Minneapolis this winter ?

[radar]

Originally Posted by theoldwizard

So want kind of range are Tesla owners get in Minneapolis this winter ?

Never been in Minneapolis in winter but here in central BC we lose about 30 percent of our range at minus 25 C or so. Our old grand Cherokee lost about 15 percent under the same conditions. We add an extra 15 minute supercharger stop on our 480 ish kilometre trip we make. We were taught when young to drive on the top 2/3 or so of “the tank” in winter in case of highway shut downs etc. Common here in winter in the mountains.

[DrivingDan]

Where I live it rarely freezes but I was interested to see how excited new EV owners from cold country are with having resistive heating, in that they can get warmth within a minute.

[radar]

Originally Posted by DrivingDan

Where I live it rarely freezes but I was interested to see how excited new EV owners from cold country are with having resistive heating, in that they can get warmth within a minute.

We have a heat pump but there are resistance elements if it gets too cold. We timed how long it took to get from minus 15 to plus 15 Celsius in the car. About 5 minutes and all windows defrosted. Nice.