The reality vs the hype?

[dbircky]

Germany is 3.5% of the land mass of the USA. I’m not sure scaling up electric coils would work here, as we can’t seem to keep up with the crumbling bridges and roads we already have.

[tetranz]

Originally Posted by IBDAGRIZ

Tidal technology is probably the most promising as far as non stop production. It is very interesting if you look into it.

Maybe but another one that doesn't seem to get enough attention is large scale geothermal.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-envir...-supercritical

There are certainly some difficult technical challenges still to be solved but just imagine if we had. "we will get to the moon" type of drive to develop this stuff.

[carybosse]

Originally Posted by Solo_RV_Guy

...

When the auto manufacturers cancelled orders early in the pandemic, everyone behind them jumped forward in line. Three different chip foundries had catastrophic events in the course of <12 months. It takes a minimum of 3 years to rebuild, so we're still 9 months or longer before a single sliver of silicon ships (say that fast, 3 times). When those foundries finally start up, the auto manufacturers are still at the end of the line.

...

From what I understand, and I am no longer in any industry to be in the know, a lot of chips were made to fill the need for "work from home" computers and for all of the gaming consoles built to entertain all the people willing to not work for the pay the government offered them to stay home.

In past lives, I have been involved with a lot of manufacturing, but never the chip industry. The idea that basically you just rent time on a chip production line to make your particular chip, that chips are just a commodity, is an interesting concept. I can see and appreciate that. I worked in a plant in Long Beach, Mississippi many moons ago, pre-Katrina, and we had pretty much set up some small appliance assembly lines with that in mind. We were purchased by someone who wanted to convert our lines over to a similar product that fit our plant to a "TEE" and I quoted 6 weeks to complete the changeover. The plant that was losing the production to us told the owner there was no way we would ever accomplish it. Five weeks after we were given the go ahead, with everyone expecting it to take at least 90 days, our shipping guys were asking where to ship the product. We were in production on half the requirements, I was told to double the production. In 6 additional weeks, we had taken over full production of the product. Eventually, we were asked to reduce the time to switch between various models that used a half a dozen plastic parts in various colors. In a couple of months, we had the process down to where we could convert the plastics manufacture process over in 2 hours while the assembly lines took about 10-15 minutes to change over.

With electronic chips having a more standard physical size & shape as compared to the products we were building, I can see where a lot of the standard chips are handled this way. It also explains why GM discontinued certain options on their trucks, heated seats for instance, so they could have chips for more critical functions. They had purchased time on the chip lines, and so they were allocated a million chips. They could make 100,000 vehicles with those chips in various configurations, eating up many of the chips on heated seats, heated steering wheels, the stop/start feature that everyone hates, or they could produce 250,000 vehicles with those chips configured to the most critical functions.

[propchef]

Originally Posted by tetranz

Maybe but another one that doesn't seem to get enough attention is large scale geothermal.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-envir...-supercritical

There are certainly some difficult technical challenges still to be solved but just imagine if we had. "we will get to the moon" type of drive to develop this stuff.

I'm up at the Geysers frequently. That geothermal plant is in tourist-heavy Sonoma County and has been operating for decades.

[carybosse]

Originally Posted by dbircky

Germany is 3.5% of the land mass of the USA. I’m not sure scaling up electric coils would work here, as we can’t seem to keep up with the crumbling bridges and roads we already have.

Too many times, people fail to see this major difference between the US and Europe. From a land mass standpoint, you really have to compare us to China or Brazil. (Few people realize how large Brazil actually is.)

Another issue is that people in many of the large urban areas like the northeast, and people who spend there whole life inside the beltway of Washington DC, don't understand how rural most of the flyover areas of the US are.

I once worked with a guy who drove from his home in Connecticut across Rhode Island to right outside Boston for work everyday. He drove in 3 states to get to work. I know people who drive further than him just getting to work in the DFW metroplex.

I-10 in Texas is about 880 miles, from the New Mexico border to the Louisiana border. With a couple of fuel stops (for gas, not electrical recharging), food, and restroom breaks, you are probably looking at a hard 15 hour drive.


When politicians, bureaucrats, and climate activist living in their parents' basement look at the issues of EVs or many other issues, they can't comprehend the simple aspect of acres and acres of land occupied by one little ranching or farming family trying to eke out a living.

In good news, Texas survived the heat yesterday without massive brownouts, and they are more confident we will not have issues today because the winds are supposed to be picking up.

[tetranz]

Originally Posted by propchef

I'm up at the Geysers frequently. That geothermal plant is in tourist-heavy Sonoma County and has been operating for decades.

Yeah that's good, we've had that sort of geothermal in New Zealand where I'm from for many decades too but that's not really the same thing.

I'm talking about when you go deep enough, you can get energy out of the ground almost anyway, not just where there's obvious geothermal activity.

If what I've read is correct, there's plenty of energy, replenished all the time by the big nuclear reactor at the core of the earth.

[Craig1960]

Originally Posted by carybosse

Too many times, people fail to see this major difference between the US and Europe. From a land mass standpoint, you really have to compare us to China or Brazil. (Few people realize how large Brazil actually is.)

Another issue is that people in many of the large urban areas like the northeast, and people who spend there whole life inside the beltway of Washington DC, don't understand how rural most of the flyover areas of the US are.

I once worked with a guy who drove from his home in Connecticut across Rhode Island to right outside Boston for work everyday. He drove in 3 states to get to work. I know people who drive further than him just getting to work in the DFW metroplex.

I-10 in Texas is about 880 miles, from the New Mexico border to the Louisiana border. With a couple of fuel stops (for gas, not electrical recharging), food, and restroom breaks, you are probably looking at a hard 15 hour drive.


When politicians, bureaucrats, and climate activist living in their parents' basement look at the issues of EVs or many other issues, they can't comprehend the simple aspect of acres and acres of land occupied by one little ranching or farming family trying to eke out a living.

In good news, Texas survived the heat yesterday without massive brownouts, and they are more confident we will not have issues today because the winds are supposed to be picking up.

Unless you don't think we have a climate change problem why are you against the ev? It has to start somewhere and there are a lot of places in north america where it will work. Even where I live it's working better all the time and we get -30+ in the winter. My wife is a GM for a national property management company and all their properties are getting charging stations if they don't already have them.
The speed at which technolgy is going now 2030 is a long ways off compared to 8 years 100 years ago. I'm not saying that ev's will be the fix but if they don't try nobody will ever know and while they are doing that others "are" trying to come up with something better.

I only read a few pages of this post so most likely I've missed alot but I'm all for anyone who tries to change the ways things are going right now, which to me at least doesn't look like it's going to be very good for future generations.

[carybosse]

Originally Posted by Craig1960

Unless you don't think we have a climate change problem why are you against the ev? ...

I am not against EV at all. Just don't try to make it sound like the only solution and it is ready to go. There is a lot of work to make EV the solution.

I also don't think EV, especially EV in the US and Europe, is going to magically solve any climate issues we have. We are just trading one set of environmental issues for another.

Understand, I am right now waiting for some affordable options for an EV to be available about the time I pay off my Silverado next year, and then my wife and I will very likely purchase an EV crossover. GM has a couple (Equinox, Blazer) slated for release next year that may be affordable and if not the right vehicle for me, may at least drive the price down on the competition.

A good, affordable EV makes sense for my family. But a ICE-based truck is also a needed vehicle in my stable. However, this is no more than me reacting to non-market based changes in the economy driven by political grandstanding and land grabbing war mongers.

[move on]

Originally Posted by Craig1960

Unless you don't think we have a climate change problem why are you against the ev? It has to start somewhere and there are a lot of places in north america where it will work. Even where I live it's working better all the time and we get -30+ in the winter. My wife is a GM for a national property management company and all their properties are getting charging stations if they don't already have them.
The speed at which technolgy is going now 2030 is a long ways off compared to 8 years 100 years ago. I'm not saying that ev's will be the fix but if they don't try nobody will ever know and while they are doing that others "are" trying to come up with something better.

I only read a few pages of this post so most likely I've missed alot but I'm all for anyone who tries to change the ways things are going right now, which to me at least doesn't look like it's going to be very good for future generations.

You hit the nail on the head. EVs are only interesting if you believe in climate change. But what happens when the theory of manmade global warming no longer holds up to scientific scrutiny? Is that the end of the EV revolution?

[tetranz]

Originally Posted by move on

But what happens when the theory of manmade global warming no longer holds up to scientific scrutiny?

When do you predict that will happen?

[Craig1960]

Originally Posted by carybosse

I am not against EV at all. Just don't try to make it sound like the only solution and it is ready to go. There is a lot of work to make EV the solution.

I also don't think EV, especially EV in the US and Europe, is going to magically solve any climate issues we have. We are just trading one set of environmental issues for another.

Understand, I am right now waiting for some affordable options for an EV to be available about the time I pay off my Silverado next year, and then my wife and I will very likely purchase an EV crossover. GM has a couple (Equinox, Blazer) slated for release next year that may be affordable and if not the right vehicle for me, may at least drive the price down on the competition.

A good, affordable EV makes sense for my family. But a ICE-based truck is also a needed vehicle in my stable. However, this is no more than me reacting to non-market based changes in the economy driven by political grandstanding and land grabbing war mongers.

I agree it's not going to be the magic bullet but it is a move in the right direction. As far as how they get the point across, I don't know how you can without some grandstanding because that's the only way to get some people's attention.

Originally Posted by move on

You hit the nail on the head. EVs are only interesting if you believe in climate change. But what happens when the theory of manmade global warming no longer holds up to scientific scrutiny? Is that the end of the EV revolution?

If anyone doesn't think mankind isn't contributing to climate change and can't help make things better then I don't know if anyone can get through to those people.

[move on]

Originally Posted by tetranz

When do you predict that will happen?

Many scientists have already declared the theory of CAGW dead. Now it's just a matter of when it dies in the eyes of the public. If I had to guess, 10 years or less.

[tetranz]

Originally Posted by move on

Many scientists have already declared the theory of CAGW dead.

What would be your guess at the the percentage of qualified scientists who hold that opinion?

[move on]

Originally Posted by tetranz

What would be your guess at the the percentage of qualified scientists who hold that opinion?

More than half.