Where is the Tesla Semi?

[radar]

Originally Posted by followingsea

ICE has made great strides. My first car was a '60 Ford Falcon. It was done at 100k miles. My TOAD is '95 Honda Del Sol going strong at 200k.

My Cummins ISB is also going strong as it approaches 200k. Tesla is not in the running.

In engineering terms, the ICE converts the thermal energy to work.

A battery only stores electric energy. To make electric power, thermal energy is converted to work using a steam turbine to drive a generator.

Spent 50 years making electricity. My industry does such a great job making electricity that most people do not know much about how it is made.

Yes electricity is great. Storing electricity is not for transportation.

Heh heh. . I don’t know. My stored energy car works better than any thermal thingamjiggy car I have ever owned. I mean, it’s not even close. Lol. .

[jharrell]

If anyone is interested in the actual Tesla Semi engineering this new analysis is really good:

https://insideevs.com/news/521840/te...tery-analysis/

Since Tesla has been so secretive about the actual specs of the battery pack, this is about the best estimate I have seen based on publicly known information.

Key estimated specs for the battery:

~850 V
~880 kWh
~9300 lbs

Would be an impressive battery in a RV too.

I had estimated 10,000lbs for the battery before so its not a big surprised based on current lithium battery energy density (~200Wh/kg).

Semi tractors seem to target 25,000 lbs and 10,000 lbs for empty trailer for 35,000 lbs empty with an 80,000lbs limit.

So Tesla has about 15,000 lbs to work with building the rest of the tractor, seems easily doable. It uses 4 Model 3 motors plus motor controllers not a lot a weight there probably around 1000 lbs, so the whole drive train could be right around 10,000 lbs. A normal 15 liter diesel drivetrain will be at 5000 lbs so Tesla is looking at a around 5000 lbs weight penally to makeup somehow.

[radar]

Originally Posted by jharrell

If anyone is interested in the actual Tesla Semi engineering this new analysis is really good:

https://insideevs.com/news/521840/te...tery-analysis/

Since Tesla has been so secretive about the actual specs of the battery pack, this is about the best estimate I have seen based on publicly known information.

Key estimated specs for the battery:

~850 V
~880 kWh
~9300 lbs

Would be an impressive battery in a RV too.

I had estimated 10,000lbs for the battery before so its not a big surprised based on current lithium battery energy density (~200Wh/kg).

Semi tractors seem to target 25,000 lbs and 10,000 lbs for empty trailer for 35,000 lbs empty with an 80,000lbs limit.

So Tesla has about 15,000 lbs to work with building the rest of the tractor, seems easily doable. It uses 4 Model 3 motors plus motor controllers not a lot a weight there probably around 1000 lbs, so the whole drive train could be right around 10,000 lbs. A normal 15 liter diesel drivetrain will be at 5000 lbs so Tesla is looking at a around 5000 lbs weight penally to makeup somehow.

Informative. Thanks. I’m not up on all this weight stuff for trucks. It will be interesting to see how this filters down to RV’s. I wonder which motorhome integrator will be the first to take a shot at it. I’m going with Newell.

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by radar

Informative. Thanks. I’m not up on all this weight stuff for trucks. It will be interesting to see how this filters down to RV’s. I wonder which motorhome integrator will be the first to take a shot at it. I’m going with Newell.

Someone will get a Semi and extend the frame and make a Super C just prove it can be done. Will be quite a while before anyone does it commercially as an RV, Tesla won't warranty / service anything like that.

There won't be much interest in the RV space until the charging infrastructure is there. If / when they can get 3 megawatt HPCVC going then your looking at under 20 minute recharge is gets close to the usual fill up times I see in the RV lanes. 500 miles range is in the ballpark too, its the range my RV has and thats basically all day driving. I usually fill up at 250-300 miles.

[radar]

Originally Posted by jharrell

Someone will get a Semi and extend the frame and make a Super C just prove it can be done. Will be quite a while before anyone does it commercially as an RV, Tesla won't warranty / service anything like that.

There won't be much interest in the RV space until the charging infrastructure is there. If / when they can get 3 megawatt HPCVC going then your looking at under 20 minute recharge is gets close to the usual fill up times I see in the RV lanes. 500 miles range is in the ballpark too, its the range my RV has and thats basically all day driving. I usually fill up at 250-300 miles.

Yep because an RV won’t fit well in the majority of Superchargers we have been to. Some would work.

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by radar

Yep because an RV won’t fit well in the majority of Superchargers we have been to. Some would work.

Supercharger will take 3-4 hours anyway, thats a no go unless its at your campsite, really need megawatt+ charging for on the road stops.

50 amp campsite service would take 3 days full blast to recharge, might be viable sometimes if you have a long stay and they have a meter to charge you and the campground backend can handle it.

I could see some campgrounds in the future having EV specific sites with upgraded service just like the 30 amp vs 50 amp. CCS Type 1 at 80 amps would be 40 hours from empty and be the next "easy" step up from 50 amp service. Ideally you get to DC fast charging at 100kw to recharge an empty pack in 8 hours for an overnight stop that will be 480v service at 200a.

[TonyMac]

Originally Posted by CamJam1

EU is planning to phase out all internal combustion engines in cars by 2035. Unless there are big diesel biofuel advancements (and there may well be) it'll soon be trucks too.

That is not going to happen. It's a product of the Paris accords which have largely been ignored since the signatures dried. All the vegetable oil produced worldwide each year would replace diesel demand for a day. No electrical grid exists anywhere on the globe that can "refuel" EVs at a scale necessary to have 30% EVs on the road and still power the rest of society at current rates. Are you willing to give up your air conditioning and heat so you can drive your EV? No transportation company can afford to have a semi and its driver sit for hours to refuel, or buy 20% more trucks and preposition them for trailer swapping. Drivers will revolt. Transportation costs will skyrocket.

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by TonyMac

No electrical grid exists anywhere on the globe that can "refuel" EVs at a scale necessary to have 30% EVs on the road and still power the rest of society at current rates.

Based on the data I have seen for the US we would need to double our grid output (currently about 4TWh per year) to support the majority of transportation to move over to electric (>80% including heavy vehicles).

Our grid output in the US doubled from 1955 to 1965, doubled again from 1965 to to 1975. We are capable of doing it under the right conditions with demand and incentive, not sure how quick it will happen, the advantages are too great to be ignored and battery prices are dropping like a rock while density is going up steadily, to me just a matter of when not if.

[radar]

Originally Posted by TonyMac

That is not going to happen. It's a product of the Paris accords which have largely been ignored since the signatures dried. All the vegetable oil produced worldwide each year would replace diesel demand for a day. No electrical grid exists anywhere on the globe that can "refuel" EVs at a scale necessary to have 30% EVs on the road and still power the rest of society at current rates. Are you willing to give up your air conditioning and heat so you can drive your EV? No transportation company can afford to have a semi and its driver sit for hours to refuel, or buy 20% more trucks and preposition them for trailer swapping. Drivers will revolt. Transportation costs will skyrocket.

Meh. It’s a 30 to 40 year transition. Power companies and grid managers will figure it out.

[followingsea]

Originally Posted by radar

Heh heh. . I don’t know. My stored energy car works better than any thermal thingamjiggy car I have ever owned. I mean, it’s not even close. Lol. .

Every new car I have ever bought has worked better than the one before.

However Radar's BEV or anyones BEV has never worked better than any car I have owned including my first a used '60 Falcon.

My criteria for transportation is does it get me to where I want to go and I do not care much about it being a status symbol.

Storing liquid fuel in a tank is simple. Never had a fuel tank fail. Never had a fuel tank catch fire.

Batteries are heavy complex chemical devices. They do not last very long compared to how long a car will last.

I drive a '95 Honda Del Sol. There is a Tesla belong to a boat house owner. When it comes to fun to drive and lasting a long time, the Tesla is not even close.

In any case, the power industry has tried many ways of storing electricity. The most practical is pumped storage.

Just because you can do something, does not make it a good
idea.

[radar]

Originally Posted by followingsea

Every new car I have ever bought has worked better than the one before.

However Radar's BEV or anyones BEV has never worked better than any car I have owned including my first a used '60 Falcon.

My criteria for transportation is does it get me to where I want to go and I do not care much about it being a status symbol.

Storing liquid fuel in a tank is simple. Never had a fuel tank fail. Never had a fuel tank catch fire.

Batteries are heavy complex chemical devices. They do not last very long compared to how long a car will last.

I drive a '95 Honda Del Sol. There is a Tesla belong to a boat house owner. When it comes to fun to drive and lasting a long time, the Tesla is not even close.

In any case, the power industry has tried many ways of storing electricity. The most practical is pumped storage.

Just because you can do something, does not make it a good
idea.

Heh heH. Always best to drive what suits your needs, wants and budget. I’m sure your Sol is a fine car...and would definitely not work for us.

Cheers.

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by followingsea

Storing liquid fuel in a tank is simple. Never had a fuel tank fail. Never had a fuel tank catch fire.

Ever heard of a Pinto? How long had gas cars been around like 70-80 years and you still had dangerous designs. There are something like 200,000 vehicle fires per year, you can find plenty of incidents on this forums of motorhome fires, usually a high pressure fuel line sprays diesel over the hot engine / exhaust, happens all the time. Most data shows EV's are about 10 times less likely to have a fire than a ICE vehicle.

Everyone I have ever talked to that owns an EV says it's better than their old ICE in every way except for long distance and even that seems pretty good if you have Tesla with their network, better than I thought. If you use it as an around town car / commuter its great just charge at home for cheap, basically no maintenance except tires, battery is a 10 year warranty type thing.

They don't use diesel or gas engines at power plants to make power, usually steam turbines, why don't they use this in cars? Probably because power plant scale systems don't work well on a small scale and vice versa, same with pump storage. If you want energy density that can work in a vehicle its lithium batteries, if you don't care about weight have a have a dam around then pump storage makes sense for large scale.

Just because we do something certain way now does not make it the best way to do it, progress marches on whether we like it or not.

[followingsea]

Originally Posted by jharrell

Ever heard of a Pinto? .......

Just because we do something certain way now does not make it the best way to do it, progress marches on whether we like it or not.

I almost stopped reading at your first sentence.

Yes, I have heard of the Pinto. I am an old guy with lots of experience doing things safely. Did not buy a Pinto, did not buy an EV.

I love progress too, if by progress you mean doing it a better way.

In 1980 I bought a new Toyota Tercel to commute to a nuclear power plant. This is after having a 10 year old $300 Toyota as a beater car to drive to the shipyard when I was in the navy.

Toyota was building better (more reliable, safer) commuter cars cheaper using the ideas of an American engineer Edward Deming.


There is a systematic approach for doing thing better and safer.

Here is a quote I read about a study for EV: "It’s important to note that the study assumes that the vehicle was registered in 2021 and will be on the road for around 18 years."

and: "The study also doesn’t take into account other non-climate related environmental effects that constructing the cars might have from things like mining and waste."

The point is that the ICE has been the proven standard for road transportation for 100 years.

Bad ideas like the BEV are recycled periodically. Repeating mistakes is not progress.

If an engineer tells you something is a bad idea but a governor tells you it is a good idea who are you going to believe?

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by followingsea

Bad ideas like the BEV are recycled periodically. Repeating mistakes is not progress.

If an engineer tells you something is a bad idea but a governor tells you it is a good idea who are you going to believe?

As an engineer I know a good design when I see it, BEV's are simpler mechanically, they are solid state devices right up to the motor and single speed transmission to wheels. The only thing holding them back is battery cost and weight and charging infrastructure. Lithium batteries didn't exist commercially until the early 90's, this is not a repeated mistake, technology has improved in both battery chemistry and motor control, this was not feasible until now.

Battery cost is one tenth what is was 10 years ago and continues to fall. They are approaching $100 kWh rather quickly at which point there will be no cost advantage for ICE.

Battery energy density has tripled in 10 years and continues to rise which means weight is going down. Currently between 200-300Wh/kg, the theoretical limit of lithium is 2600Wh/kg. At even 1000Wh/kg the weight issue becomes meaningless, electric planes are waiting for 400Wh/kg to become viable.

The number of charging stations have gone up thirty times in 10 years. It much easier to build a new charging station than a gas station. Silicon carbide is an amazing thing for both the motor controllers and the charging stations for voltage conversion.

The data is obvious, it is more efficient to burn hydrocarbons at a centralized plant with lower emissions and centralized emissions equipment and distribute via electricity than burn it in the vehicle, on top of that the energy source is decoupled from the vehicle and can be switched to nuclear, solar, wind or whatever as needed.

Its also pretty clear that even with the emission from battery production using current energy sources BEV emit less lifetime emissions: https://energypost.eu/latest-data-sh...petrol-diesel/

This can be debated many ways, bottom line if we move to electrification and renewable sources the mining and production will also produce less emissions. Solar panels make solar panels which make batteries and cars and trucks and mining equipment . Batteries are also very recyclable that itself will be huge industry and where smart money is investing now.

Both the math and science agree, its getting pretty hard to ignore which is why you see most automakers moving quickly toward electrification now, the result isn't pretty, the industry is changing quickly:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gas-eng...it-11627046285

“We don’t want to be left making the best buggy whips” is a good quote from a parts supplier.

The horse was proven standard for road transportation for more than a hundreds years, things change. I always like the quote attributed to Henry Ford: "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses".