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Old 07-26-2021, 10:05 AM   #155
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Talking about subsidies, there are no subsidies to the petroleum industry. You get to deduct your costs from your revenue and then you pay the tax like every other industry.

As far as EVs go, the subsidies are enormous. I'm not even talking about the $7500 federal tax credit for individuals. The way they are subsidized is through CAFE credits. Did you know that Tesla makes zero $ on selling EVs but they make hundreds of millions selling CAFE credits to other manufacturers? That would not be a problem by itself but the CAFE credit calculations are skewed to greatly favor EVs while hiding it from the public. Then there are the subsidies for charging stations that are hidden in your electric bill. The list goes on. If these subsidies are ever pulled the EV industry is destined for the trash heap of history.
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Old 07-26-2021, 10:13 AM   #156
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Talking about subsidies, there are no subsidies to the petroleum industry. You get to deduct your costs from your revenue and then you pay the tax like every other industry.
Really no subsidies at all?:

https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fac...societal-costs
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Old 07-26-2021, 10:22 AM   #157
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Your are referring to turbo-compounding which has been around since WW2 but we do have the benefit of of electrical turbo compounding now days, however I can find no reference of a MGU-H allowing 50+% thermal efficiency. Since its uses exhaust gases directly to drive the MGU-H it needs high exhaust temperatures otherwise it has poor energy capture it also does not capture waste heat from the rest of the engine only exhaust gas expansion.

Freightliner went with a Rakine cycle (steam turbine) system because it captures heat from the exhaust and the engine itself along with being able to convert more of the heat to useful work at lower temperatures, they actually achieved 50% thermal efficiency.

Freightliner also tried an electric heat recovery turbine (Still steam powered) and went with the direct mechanical drive just like the old WW2 turbo-compounders, because it was more efficient (recovered more power) for highway cruise which is whats important for a semi and a RV. Hybrid systems have little use at highway cruise with a diesel engine.

This is their system to achieve 50% thermal efficiency in a heavy highway vehicle, which is what power plants use on a larger scale to achieve 60+%,just please the diesel engine with a natural gas turbine:

Attachment 337324
The steam cycle on the diesel engine looks nice on paper but I would agree it's looks too cumbersome to make it into the auto market. The MGU-H is compact enough to use on a Formula One car, helping to get 1000 HP out of a 1600 cc engine. Look up "Mercedes Formula One thermal efficiency". I believe we'll see 50% thermal efficiency in road cars in the next couple of years.
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Old 07-26-2021, 10:56 AM   #158
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The steam cycle on the diesel engine looks nice on paper but I would agree it's looks too cumbersome to make it into the auto market. The MGU-H is compact enough to use on a Formula One car, helping to get 1000 HP out of a 1600 cc engine. Look up "Mercedes Formula One thermal efficiency". I believe we'll see 50% thermal efficiency in road cars in the next couple of years.
It is impressive but the MGU-H is only part of the efficiency gain, the other half is turbulent jet injection. Also MGU-H aren't used in oval racing because the speeds aren't varying much just like highway driving the hybrid system doesn't help much, the reason the F1 car is getting such great efficiency gains with the MGU-H is its ability store energy along with regenerative braking then use it in bursts to accelerate again, in many ways just like a hybrid in city driving where they shine.

This is why Freightliner didn't bother with a MGU-H in the super truck, electrical hybrid systems offer little advantage at highway cruise. If you are doing mostly highway driving the hybrid system is dead weight, you have a small BEV system you're not using for anything.
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Old 07-26-2021, 11:15 AM   #159
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It is impressive but the MGU-H is only part of the efficiency gain, the other half is turbulent jet injection. Also MGU-H aren't used in oval racing because the speeds aren't varying much just like highway driving the hybrid system doesn't help much, the reason the F1 car is getting such great efficiency gains with the MGU-H is its ability store energy along with regenerative braking then use it in bursts to accelerate again, in many ways just like a hybrid in city driving where they shine.

This is why Freightliner didn't bother with a MGU-H in the super truck, electrical hybrid systems offer little advantage at highway cruise. If you are doing mostly highway driving the hybrid system is dead weight, you have a small BEV system you're not using for anything.
Agree. A vehicle driving down a highway at fixed speed can have an engine and drive train tuned for that speed and it can achieve a very high efficiency. I do see some value in hybridization though. Semis are very annoying to be around in hill country. They go 40 mph uphill and 80 mph downhill. That could be smoothed out with hybridization. Then there are other savings like running the trailer refrigeration unit and other accessories. Hybridization doesn't have to cost very much so I think we'll be seeing more of it even on semis.
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Old 07-26-2021, 11:29 AM   #160
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Someone will get a Semi and extend the frame and make a Super C just prove it can be done. Will be quite a while before anyone does it commercially as an RV, Tesla won't warranty / service anything like that.

There won't be much interest in the RV space until the charging infrastructure is there. If / when they can get 3 megawatt HPCVC going then your looking at under 20 minute recharge is gets close to the usual fill up times I see in the RV lanes. 500 miles range is in the ballpark too, its the range my RV has and thats basically all day driving. I usually fill up at 250-300 miles.
50amp connections would more than charge that thing overnight... You don't need a supercharger or mega charger unless you are in a hurry.
I will never be able to afford a Tesla SuperC, but it certainly sounds cool!
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Old 07-26-2021, 11:35 AM   #161
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50amp connections would more than charge that thing overnight... You don't need a supercharger or mega charger unless you are in a hurry.
I will never be able to afford a Tesla SuperC, but it certainly sounds cool!
Yeah no, do the math, we are talking a 900 kWh battery, 50 amp campground service is 12kw (50a*240v), so you get 12 kWh per hour out of it with perfect charger, you can put at most 96 kWh in the battery in 8 hours or a little over 10%. If you are even at half full your talking 34+ hours of charging, subtract 2-3 kw for air conditioning and everything else and its even longer.

Fine if your there for a few days I guess.
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Old 07-26-2021, 11:48 AM   #162
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Semis are very annoying to be around in hill country. They go 40 mph uphill and 80 mph downhill. That could be smoothed out with hybridization. Then there are other savings like running the trailer refrigeration unit and other accessories. Hybridization doesn't have to cost very much so I think we'll be seeing more of it even on semis.
Annoying isn't normally part of the ROI calculations truckers make but maintenance and reliability is, hybrid systems add complexity and cost to the vehicle with little gains in highway driving, for urban delivery maybe, I have only seen hybrid system with diesel on city buses which are extreme stop and go duty cycles, but then pure EV's are better for fixed route stop and go by far, which is why you see electric buses now, they also have better burst power and acceleration so are less annoying for everyone.

Regen helps very little even hill driving, you can store some energy and it get it back but its just not enough to make the hybrid system worth while, just letting the truck slow down then speed back up and keeping off the brakes is a simpler more efficient system. The only time your wasting energy is braking (normal or engine) if you can coast up to speed without having to use the brakes on a downhill your more efficient than regenerative.
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Old 07-26-2021, 11:48 AM   #163
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Yeah no, do the math, we are talking a 900 kWh battery, 50 amp campground service is 12kw (50a*240v), so you get 12 kWh per hour out of it with perfect charger, you can put at most 96 kWh in the battery in 8 hours or a little over 10%. If you are even at half full your talking 34+ hours of charging, subtract 2-3 kw for air conditioning and everything else and its even longer.

Fine if your there for a few days I guess.
Here's the math: 900 KWH x $137 per KWH = $123,300. Nobody will ever put one of these into an RV.
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Old 07-26-2021, 11:56 AM   #164
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Here's the math: 900 KWH x $137 per KWH = $123,300. Nobody will ever put one of these into an RV.
There you go again with "ever" biggest change in the battery world right now is prices falling, its was $221 per kWh in 2017.

Electricity is currently half the price of diesel on average for the same resulting power.

Generator and house batteries no longer necessary.

The most expensive Rv's are 2 million dollars, the battery would be 5% of the cost, that is where you will see them first.
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Old 07-26-2021, 12:14 PM   #165
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There you go again with "ever" biggest change in the battery world right now is prices falling, its was $221 per kWh in 2017.

Electricity is currently half the price of diesel on average for the same resulting power.

Generator and house batteries no longer necessary.

The most expensive Rv's are 2 million dollars, the battery would be 5% of the cost, that is where you will see them first.
You keep on saying that battery prices are going down. They are already as far down as they're ever going to go. They will only go up from here as the nickel and cobalt start running out.

By the way, that $123,000 will buy you 41,000 gallons of diesel fuel.
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Old 07-26-2021, 12:54 PM   #166
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41,000 gallons of fuel is about 33,000,000 miles in my DP. Doesnít appear that batteries are very cost effective. Wonder if I have enough time to drive more than that. If I start now and never stop thatís only 62 years of continuous driving.
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Old 07-26-2021, 12:59 PM   #167
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They are already as far down as they're ever going to go.
Seriously how can you say this with a straight face, there is no indication that battery price have stopped going down and will not go any lower ever.

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They will only go up from here as the nickel and cobalt start running out.
Nickel and Cobalt aren't running out and batteries are highly recyclable (80-90%). Iron Phosphate are approaching NMC cells in energy density quickly which Tesla is already using in some models, this will reduce cobalt and nickel reliance.

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By the way, that $123,000 will buy you 41,000 gallons of diesel fuel.
Truckers will go through 14,000 gallons a year so that 3 years worth of fuel. There is also less maintenance (oil changes etc). Tesla is claiming $1.20 per mile for the Semi vs $1.50 for a diesel over all. So at 30 cents a mile you're looking at 400k miles to pay for the battery or 4 years but of course the whole semi is $180,000 so it's paid for in 6 years from cost savings.
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Old 07-26-2021, 01:02 PM   #168
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41,000 gallons of fuel is about 33,000,000 miles in my DP.
Wow your DP gets 800 miles per gallon, amazing.
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