Where is the Tesla Semi?

[move on]

Originally Posted by SlowJoe

I think current standards allows a driver to operate for 10 hours per day. A team can obviously run longer. What are the charge times involved? What are the operating times on a fully charged truck? How are all of these trucks supposed to be recharged? Especially in remote areas? Ever been to a truck stop at night? To think about the power and facilities needed to recharge 75 trucks in a truckstop is very interesting. The power requirements for an average campground are small in comparison. Who is going to build these capabilities? Tax payers? How is that a reasonable expectation? If oil companies want to sell oil products, they needed to develop the infrastructure required to get it from the ground and into your tank. This is no small task. Why should power companies be any different? If they want to sell power, then let them install charging stations for these electric vehicles. I do not want to pay for it through tax dollars, or other mandates which everyone is forced to pay for. Requiring a developer to install a charging station at an apartment complex makes no more sense than requiring them to install gas pumps. Why should all owners of the complex be required to pay for this cost which is built into the project? Nobody is putting gasoline in the tanks of people who live there and drive gas vehicles? If this technology is such a great idea, then it does not need all of these unfair mandates to build the system. Even if the system was in place, there is no way to practically recharge an electric truck to make it a viable option for the OTR trucking industry.



Forget about the climate change nonsense. The one thing which is certain is that the climate always has, and always will continue to change. It has been much hotter and much colder than it is now. Sea levels have been much higher and much lower than they are now. There is visible evidence of this all around the world. Google "Suffolk Scarp" to learn about just one example. Who are we to make an argument that the speck of time we are experiencing at this point is "normal"? CO2 levels have been much higher than they are now, and this occurred long before man built the first campfire.

Good point on the charging stations. One problem is that the truck is going to have to sit there charging for a much longer time than a diesel fill-up would take. That means you will need a lot more real estate and pavement to handle the traffic. Add that to the cost of operating electric semis.

[followingsea]

Originally Posted by move on

.... Bill Gates and Warren Buffet ....

This is another example of people who are famous because they are very rich talking about doing something that nobody else is doing.

I call it grandstanding because they are never going to do it.

Building a electric semi truck is a little different. Concept cars get built all the time. Getting people to buy them and making a profit is something else altogether.

I find real science a lot more interesting than marketing science. My real reactors that I have personally worked on have produced more electricity than than hypothetical reactions.

Admiral Rickover's team came up with a reactor design that could fit in a hull of a submarine. Therefore could fit inside a containment building. Changed our world.

[SlowJoe]

Originally Posted by move on

Good point on the charging stations. One problem is that the truck is going to have to sit there charging for a much longer time than a diesel fill-up would take. That means you will need a lot more real estate and pavement to handle the traffic. Add that to the cost of operating electric semis.

I agree. Currently, a driver can operate for 10 hours. This 10 hour shift will require at least 1 refuel/ rest stop for the driver. These guys are getting paid by the mile and to refuel and visit the restroom, just say it's 15-30 minutes average, and then they are on the road again. You aren't going to do that with batteries. This technology is only suitable for local delivery/ yard dog service trucks. Maybe this will change, but either way, it will have no measurable effect on the world's climate. A global mandate eliminating every diesel truck in existence wouldn't either.

[followingsea]

Originally Posted by jharrell

.......and then we are using limestone to make concrete a big CO2 producer.

.....but wind and solar is plenty viable, not sure why you think it isn't. A solar array the size of Nevada can supply the entire worlds energy needs with zero carbon emissions. .....

Wind and solar are not 'viable'. Wind and solar can contribute to our existing grid some places. And not very much.

Wind and solar are not zero carbon emissions. Wind and solar needs lot of concrete in their construction as an example of carbon emissions. Divide the amount of electricity produced during the life by the emissions to produce the panels or turbines.

Nevada can not even provide enough solar power for Nevada. It is still dangerously hot all summer when solar has stopped making electricity. That's why I am not in Nevada now.

I am in Washington State now. Went sailing for 4 hours this morning. The guy in the next motorhome was going fishing when I was coming back in.

He works at the wind farm. He drives to the wind farm every. That is carbon emissions. The amount of electricity produced does not pay his salary.

The reason some wind and solar have higher emissions than coal plants is they stop working because the cost of repairing them is higher than the value of electricity produced.

Just because something sounds like a good idea does not mean that it turns out to be good.

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by move on

You can do that with a diesel engine. 25 gallons of diesel has 1 mwh of energy. That way wouldn't need a giant battery that would take up most of the RV's space.

Come on now, we are having what I thought was an intelligent debate about thermal efficiencies and you post this?

Did you forget that 60% percent of those watt hours are lost? 25 gallons makes 1 MWh of heat, 40% might make it to the wheels. To get 1 MWh to the wheels you need at least 60 gallons of diesel.

I have an 80 gallon tank on my gas RV and get about 6.5 mpg for a range of about 500 miles. To get 500 miles on 60 gallons of diesel is 8.3 mpg, pretty realistic considering the higher efficiency of the diesel. 1 megawatt hour is 2 kWh per mile for 500 miles which is exactly what Tesla is claiming for the semi, this should easily move a MH 500 miles.

500 miles is around 8 hours of driving I would say thats perfect for most RV's. Drive 8 hours and charge overnight at 120kw for 8 hours would be ideal, but a 3 MW fast charger could recharge in 20 minutes which is the current HPCVC fast charge spec being worked on for heavy vehicles.

[move on]

Originally Posted by jharrell

Come on now, we are having what I thought was an intelligent debate about thermal efficiencies and you post this?

Did you forget that 60% percent of those watt hours are lost? 25 gallons makes 1 MWh of heat, 40% might make it to the wheels. To get 1 MWh to the wheels you need at least 60 gallons of diesel.

I have an 80 gallon tank on my gas RV and get about 6.5 mpg for a range of about 500 miles. To get 500 miles on 60 gallons of diesel is 8.3 mpg, pretty realistic considering the higher efficiency of the diesel. 1 megawatt hour is 2 kWh per mile for 500 miles which is exactly what Tesla is claiming for the semi, this should easily move a MH 500 miles.

500 miles is around 8 hours of driving I would say thats perfect for most RV's. Drive 8 hours and charge overnight at 120kw for 8 hours would be ideal, but a 3 MW fast charger could recharge in 20 minutes which is the current HPCVC fast charge spec being worked on for heavy vehicles.

I wouldn't waste too much time on this subject since nobody is ever going to put a 1 mwh battery into an RV. The cost, weight and environmental impact would make that prohibitive.

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by move on

I wouldn't waste too much time on this subject since nobody is ever going to put a 1 mwh battery into an RV. The cost, weight and environmental impact would make that prohibitive.

"Ever" is a long time. Freightliner is going to start production of the ECascadia with a 500 kWh battery soon, Tesla is pretty much saying their battery will be 1 MWh for the 500 mile version.

Lithium batteries are starting to hit $100 kWh right now now you're looking at a $100k battery for 1 MWh, projected to hit $60 kWh by 2030 bringing it down to $60k. How much does a diesel engine, transmission and after treatment system cost?

Lithium battery energy density is hitting 300 wh/kg now which is 7000 lbs for 1 MWh. The theoretic upper limit on lithium is 2600 wh/kg with a sulfur cathode there is plenty of room for improvement.

I don't think this is going to happen overnight, but 10-20 years is a long time, must be nice to see the future so clearly.

[move on]

Originally Posted by jharrell

"Ever" is a long time. Freightliner is going to start production of the ECascadia with a 500 kWh battery soon, Tesla is pretty much saying their battery will be 1 MWh for the 500 mile version.

Lithium batteries are starting to hit $100 kWh right now now you're looking at a $100k battery for 1 MWh, projected to hit $60 kWh by 2030 bringing it down to $60k. How much does a diesel engine, transmission and after treatment system cost?

Lithium battery energy density is hitting 300 wh/kg now which is 7000 lbs for 1 MWh. The theoretic upper limit on lithium is 2600 wh/kg with a sulfur cathode there is plenty of room for improvement.

I don't think this is going to happen overnight, but 10-20 years is a long time, must be nice to see the future so clearly.

One thing about RVs is that most of them are hardly ever used. One or two times per year maybe. Why would you want to waste a nice 1 mwh lithium ion battery on an RV? Those battery cells could be much better used in hybrid applications where they could help to double the fuel efficiency of gas or diesel engines. We have to manage our resources in an efficient manner. Powering cars, trucks and RVs with battery power only is not an efficient use of resources. The way you can tell is that BEVs are much more expensive than ICEs or hybrids.

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by move on

One thing about RVs is that most of them are hardly ever used. One or two times per year maybe. Why would you want to waste a nice 1 mwh lithium ion battery on an RV? Those battery cells could be much better used in hybrid applications where they could help to double the fuel efficiency of gas or diesel engines. We have to manage our resources in an efficient manner. Powering cars, trucks and RVs with battery power only is not an efficient use of resources. The way you can tell is that BEVs are much more expensive than ICEs or hybrids.

I use my RV a lot more than 2 times a year, but a 1 MWh battery would make a heck of a power backup for home, or act as a reservoir for excess solar. More useful than a big diesel engine sitting around.

Hybrids have little use at highway cruise, the hybrid system pretty much just shutsdown, but yes urban driving make a lot of sense for both hybrids and BEV's. BEV's are much simpler than hybrids and don't need much battery capacity for commuting or delivery. Right now it makes a lot of sense to have a BEV and a normal car if you're a two car family, my neighbor does this, has a Model 3 and a Volvo. He travels the middle part of the state for work no problem with the Tesla, usually just charges at home, only maintenance item he's had is tires, barely touch the brake pads on those things. Still probably want a normal car for road trips, but the charger network is pretty good up the east coast according to him not hard to travel in.

As far as efficient resources its possible to recycle lithium batteries and you can't recycle diesel at least not on human time scales. There is a lot of options for battery chemistry, lithium being extremely abundant and as far as cobalt and nickel, well thats exactly why Tesla and other are moving to iron cathodes, gain very abundant and easy to get. There is a energy density hit going to iron, but it has improved significantly which is why it's viable and continues to improve. Batteries aren't standing still lithiums have steadily improved since they where developed in the 70's and they have a long way to go before being tapped out.

[move on]

Originally Posted by jharrell

I use my RV a lot more than 2 times a year, but a 1 MWh battery would make a heck of a power backup for home, or act as a reservoir for excess solar. More useful than a big diesel engine sitting around.

Hybrids have little use at highway cruise, the hybrid system pretty much just shutsdown, but yes urban driving make a lot of sense for both hybrids and BEV's. BEV's are much simpler than hybrids and don't need much battery capacity for commuting or delivery. Right now it makes a lot of sense to have a BEV and a normal car if you're a two car family, my neighbor does this, has a Model 3 and a Volvo. He travels the middle part of the state for work no problem with the Tesla, usually just charges at home, only maintenance item he's had is tires, barely touch the brake pads on those things. Still probably want a normal car for road trips, but the charger network is pretty good up the east coast according to him not hard to travel in.

As far as efficient resources its possible to recycle lithium batteries and you can't recycle diesel at least not on human time scales. There is a lot of options for battery chemistry, lithium being extremely abundant and as far as cobalt and nickel, well thats exactly why Tesla and other are moving to iron cathodes, gain very abundant and easy to get. There is a energy density hit going to iron, but it has improved significantly which is why it's viable and continues to improve. Batteries aren't standing still lithiums have steadily improved since they where developed in the 70's and they have a long way to go before being tapped out.

Hybrids can use Atkinson cycle engines that are a lot more efficient than traditional Otto cycle engines, so they reduce fuel consumption even at highway speeds. It requires a very small battery. A BEV is a waste because most of the time the battery is not being used at capacity. A much better solution to not using fossil fuels is the plug-in hybrid. These run on electricity 90% of the time and their batteries are only around 15% as big as a BEV's.

LFP batteries cannot be used in Semis because the additional weight is prohibitive. Also they don't perform well in cold weather. Be careful if you are in the market for a BEV. Musk is trying to sneak these bombs into his cars as a way to reduce NMC battery use. You don't want to inadvertently buy a BEV with a LFP battery.

I would agree that there may be some future battery technology that would make BEVs viable, but it's not here yet and it's not even on the horizon.

[jharrell]

Originally Posted by move on

Hybrids can use Atkinson cycle engines that are a lot more efficient than traditional Otto cycle engines, so they reduce fuel consumption even at highway speeds.

Atkinson cycle allows a gas engine to get diesel like efficiency while sacrificing torque to get there. I believe the Prius is around 40% thermal efficiency, sounds familiar. Ever wonder why there are so few diesel hybrids?

Lithiums last much longer the less they are cycled, their life span is rated in full cycles not age. Cycling them between 80% and 20% great increases the cycle count which most cars allow you to stop charging at whatever percent you want to extend lifespan if you're just making short trips or not using it everyday. A large lithium battery in a MH not being used much is a real shame, but it will last a very long time and retain significant value due to the remaining useful life of the battery.

[radar]

Originally Posted by jharrell

Atkinson cycle allows a gas engine to get diesel like efficiency while sacrificing torque to get there. I believe the Prius is around 40% thermal efficiency, sounds familiar. Ever wonder why there are so few diesel hybrids?

Lithiums last much longer the less they are cycled, their life span is rated in full cycles not age. Cycling them between 80% and 20% great increases the cycle count which most cars allow you to stop charging at whatever percent you want to extend lifespan if you're just making short trips or not using it everyday. A large lithium battery in a MH not being used much is a real shame, but it will last a very long time and retain significant value due to the remaining useful life of the battery.

We do that. We have the max set to 80 percent for daily commutes. We select “trip” or 100 percent for road trips. Only downside to 100 percent is the regen doesn’t work as well for the first few kilometres as there is no where for the power to go. Meh. First world problems. .

[move on]

Originally Posted by jharrell

Right now it makes a lot of sense to have a BEV and a normal car if you're a two car family, my neighbor does this, has a Model 3 and a Volvo. He travels the middle part of the state for work no problem with the Tesla, usually just charges at home, only maintenance item he's had is tires, barely touch the brake pads on those things. Still probably want a normal car for road trips, but the charger network is pretty good up the east coast according to him not hard to travel in.

Having two cars, one an ICE and the other a BEV, is just like having two PHEVs.

[radar]

Originally Posted by move on

Having two cars, one an ICE and the other a BEV, is just like having two PHEVs.

Once there is a BEV in the household no one wants to drive the gasser. We have seen this happen again and again. Usually within a year or two the other car gets traded in for another BEV. Otherwise it’s a constant fight over who gets to drive the BEV. The exception is when the other vehicle is a truck...and that will change within a few years.

Driving a BEV is nothing like driving a hybrid. I have nothing against hybrids but generally it’s like driving a beat up old wet dog compared to the performance, driving experience and convenience of a BEV.

Jmho.