Between all of your contributions and the research I have done on my own I think I will be just fine. I have done calculations which I will break down below. Feel free to check my math and logic.
I will start by reviewing the facts. Please keep in mind that the TT numbers are based on manufacturer’s specifications and not on the actual unit, which will not be delivered till March. The 2018 model is very similar to the 2017 specs with one major change: the u-shaped dinette was changed to a booth dinette. I’m not sure there will be a weight difference, and I will weigh everything when the TT arrives and report back.
All weights are in pounds.
TV GCWR = 14,400 (online manual says 15,885)
TV GVWR = 7,385
TV GAWR(F) = 3,595
TV GAWR(R) = 4,300
Max Hitch = 850
TV Manual Recommended Tongue % = 9%-11%
LC + full tank + me = 6,260 (real # weighed last week)
Wife and kids = 380
Actual curb weight with full tank + passengers = 6,640
TT Dry Weight = 5,295
TT Dry Hitch Weight = 695
TT Max Weight with X4 Package = 7,500
Full Fresh Tank (78 gallons x 8.3) = 648
Black Tank with 5 gallons to start trip = 42
2 lithium batteries + secure box + propane = 150
Cargo = 500
Estimated TT Curb Weight = 6,635
The TT dry tongue is 13% of the TT dry weight so I will go with that calculation moving forward, although the sticker disciples should be screaming for 11% since that’s what Toyota recommends in the manual and we all know you can’t mess with manufacturers’ numbers
Seeing that 11% is more forgiving than 13%, I will go with 13%.
Curb TV + Curb TT = 13,275
GCWR - 13,275 = 1,125
GCWR is good (-1,125)
TT Curb Weight x 0.13 (13%) = Wet Tongue Weight
6,635 x 0.13 = 863
Using a WD Hitch, 1/3 (0.34) of the tongue load is shifted to the TT axles and 2/3 (0.67) to the TV.
Wet Tongue Weight x 0.67 = Tongue Weight added to TV
863 x 0.67 = 578
TV GVWR - TV Curb Weight - TV Tongue Weight
7,385 - 6,635 - 578 = 172
TV GVWR is good (-172)
TT Wet Curb Weight + 1/3 distributed tongue weight
6,635 + 293 (863 x 0.34) = 6,928
TT GVWR - TT Wet and 1/3 distributed tongue weight
7,500 - 6,928 = 572
TT GVWR is good (-572)
So, if I go with 13% tongue weight and I travel with 78 gallons of fresh water (which will never happen), as long as I don’t go too much over 500 pounds of cargo I’m within sticker limits. Now, were I to use 11% as my target hitch percentage as recommended by Toyota, that cushion grows even more.
None of the TV numbers used above take into account going from P tires to LT tires, beefed up HD suspension, beefed up brakes, and re-gearing.
My conclusion: the LC will do just fine.
I will hold off re-gearing and upgrading the brakes till after receiving the trailer and getting scale weights, in case the numbers are off and I end up having to get a heavy duty truck after all.