Chevy announces Electric Silverado half ton.

[Cumminsfan]

Look at the fuel prices in the countries where EV's sell better.
It's going to be a hard sell here in the USA where fuel prices are 1/2 that of many counties. Also take into account how large the USA is compared to many other counties.

I'd be all over an EV but our Camry's paid for and now that we're both retired we don't put much more than 3000 miles a year on the Camry, if that.
It's a 2015 with a little over 27,000 on it and most of that was when the wife drove to work.

As cool as an EV is it's going to take something like $5.00 gal gas before they become popular.

[DirtRider]

Glad to hear it! I'm looking forward to more options. I think I can squeeze another few years out of my Focus, then I'd be interested in electric. An electric pickup (if it's capable of pickup stuff) would allow me to ditch my Focus and my Silverado.

[Jshopes81]

Originally Posted by CBDunkerson

Sure, but there isn't a country on the planet where everyone needs a truck... and once people start converting there will be a snowball effect.

Consider gas stations. Say that just 10% of the people in a rural county convert over to electric cars. Gas stations in that county will lose 10% of their customers... without a corresponding reduction in overhead costs. Most gas stations operate on margins less than that. That means they'll have to raise prices or close down. So over time you've got to drive further to find a gas station and then pay more to use it.... both of which make EVs more attractive and thus further compound the problem.

The same thing will happen with repair shops, parts stores, ICE only auto dealerships, et cetera. It will only take a small shift in the market to drive many of these businesses into the red. Meanwhile, the increase in EVs will result in more charging infrastructure being built, more mechanics learning how to provide the relatively little service they require, and other shifts that make them even more viable.

All that being said, it seems like electric trucks are just around the corner. This Silverado, the electric Ford F150, Rivian, Tesla, and several others have plans to release electric trucks in the next year or two. If they prove competitive with (or superior to) their ICE cousins it won't take long at all for a small shift in the market to start producing snowballing effects.

I wouldnt say "just around the corner", and i still dont think battery pack vehicles are the next thing. I think its a stepping stone to something else. I dont have any idea what, but there are just too many shortcomings with vehicles run off a battery pack.

[Cumminsfan]

I live in Oregon and no way could I go camping with an elec truck. Many of the places we go to are in the mtns. An elec trucks battery would be substantially drained by the time I got 110 miles to our CG. We prefer dry camping as much as possible.
Unless charging stations are put in campgrounds I just don't see elec trucks being viable for anything other than driving from town to town or as a daily driver where you can charge over night.

[radar]

Originally Posted by Cumminsfan

I live in Oregon and no way could I go camping with an elec truck. Many of the places we go to are in the mtns. An elec trucks battery would be substantially drained by the time I got 110 miles to our CG. We prefer dry camping as much as possible.
Unless charging stations are put in campgrounds I just don't see elec trucks being viable for anything other than driving from town to town or as a daily driver where you can charge over night.

Yep. We used to go pretty far back as well although nothing a decent sized EV truck battery couldn’t deal with. Slow speed off road travel takes a lot less out of the battery than highway travel. Travelling at 50 kmh uses about a 1/3 as much power as travelling at 110 kmh.

The beauty about liquid fuel is its so much easier to pack in an extra 20 gallons of fuel. I can see that being a significant advantage for the back country hunty fishy crowd for decades yet. The other side of that is in twenty years there will be a lot less gas stations out there which means you may have to travel further to get the gas.

[CBDunkerson]

Originally Posted by Cumminsfan

Look at the fuel prices in the countries where EV's sell better.

Fuel prices aren't the major determinant. The cost of the electricity required to drive an EV a mile is already less than the cost of the gasoline to drive an ICEV that same mile. That is true even in places with relatively cheap gasoline and relatively expensive electricity.

Fuel cost is mostly a long term consideration. The tipping point for Norway and other countries with exploding EV sales has consistently been when the short term cost to buy and operate a mass market EV for a couple of years dropped below that of an ICEV. Norway got there first by imposing additional taxes on ICEV sales. Other countries have provided rebates for EVs. Et cetera.

The US could get there overnight by taking away some of the advantages that are currently propping up ICEVs.... like the billions of tax dollars which go towards keeping gasoline prices (at the pump) so low here.

Without any such action it is taking longer to pass the breakeven point, but EVs draw steadily closer every year. Soon they'll be cheaper even without government support... and once that happens and people start buying them the balance of power shifts and ICEVs start losing government perks while EVs start receiving more of them.

Originally Posted by Cumminsfan

Also take into account how large the USA is compared to many other counties.

There is some truth to that, but the vast majority of people in the US (including yourself) drive less than 40 miles per day on average. That is more than any other country in the world, but still well within the capabilities of even the cheapest modern EVs. There are very few situations where driving distance is a real concern for EVs currently on the market, and the next generation of the technology (i.e. improved batteries integrated into the vehicle chassis) will eliminate those over the next three years or so.

[Boogie_]

Originally Posted by CBDunkerson

Fuel prices aren't the major determinant. The cost of the electricity required to drive an EV a mile is already less than the cost of the gasoline to drive an ICEV that same mile. That is true even in places with relatively cheap gasoline and relatively expensive electricity.

Fuel cost is mostly a long term consideration. The tipping point for Norway and other countries with exploding EV sales has consistently been when the short term cost to buy and operate a mass market EV for a couple of years dropped below that of an ICEV. Norway got there first by imposing additional taxes on ICEV sales. Other countries have provided rebates for EVs. Et cetera.

The US could get there overnight by taking away some of the advantages that are currently propping up ICEVs.... like the billions of tax dollars which go towards keeping gasoline prices (at the pump) so low here.

Without any such action it is taking longer to pass the breakeven point, but EVs draw steadily closer every year. Soon they'll be cheaper even without government support... and once that happens and people start buying them the balance of power shifts and ICEVs start losing government perks while EVs start receiving more of them.



There is some truth to that, but the vast majority of people in the US (including yourself) drive less than 40 miles per day on average. That is more than any other country in the world, but still well within the capabilities of even the cheapest modern EVs. There are very few situations where driving distance is a real concern for EVs currently on the market, and the next generation of the technology (i.e. improved batteries integrated into the vehicle chassis) will eliminate those over the next three years or so.

Can you link to one example of an oil company subsidy that is not a tax break?

...or one example of "the billions of tax dollars which go" to oil companies (i.e. the government writing a check drawn on the taxpayers) ?

[Jshopes81]

Originally Posted by CBDunkerson

Fuel prices aren't the major determinant. The cost of the electricity required to drive an EV a mile is already less than the cost of the gasoline to drive an ICEV that same mile. That is true even in places with relatively cheap gasoline and relatively expensive electricity.

Fuel cost is mostly a long term consideration. The tipping point for Norway and other countries with exploding EV sales has consistently been when the short term cost to buy and operate a mass market EV for a couple of years dropped below that of an ICEV. Norway got there first by imposing additional taxes on ICEV sales. Other countries have provided rebates for EVs. Et cetera.

The US could get there overnight by taking away some of the advantages that are currently propping up ICEVs.... like the billions of tax dollars which go towards keeping gasoline prices (at the pump) so low here.

Without any such action it is taking longer to pass the breakeven point, but EVs draw steadily closer every year. Soon they'll be cheaper even without government support... and once that happens and people start buying them the balance of power shifts and ICEVs start losing government perks while EVs start receiving more of them.



There is some truth to that, but the vast majority of people in the US (including yourself) drive less than 40 miles per day on average. That is more than any other country in the world, but still well within the capabilities of even the cheapest modern EVs. There are very few situations where driving distance is a real concern for EVs currently on the market, and the next generation of the technology (i.e. improved batteries integrated into the vehicle chassis) will eliminate those over the next three years or so.

I dont know what part of the country youre in, but in pennsylvania they tax the daylights out of it to make it more expensive.

[CBDunkerson]

Originally Posted by Boogie_

Can you link to one example of an oil company subsidy that is not a tax break?

Ah, the old 'you are wrong if we ignore all the evidence that you are right' game. Fine, I'll play. Here's "one example";

US Military spending to defend oil supplies

[Jshopes81]

Originally Posted by CBDunkerson

Ah, the old 'you are wrong if we ignore all the evidence that you are right' game. Fine, I'll play. Here's "one example";

US Military spending to defend oil supplies

Youve certainly stretched "subsidy" about as far as possible with that example. The article even owns up to that.

[Boogie_]

Originally Posted by Jshopes81

Youve certainly stretched "subsidy" about as far as possible with that example. The article even owns up to that.

I would need a chiropractor if I tried to stretch that far.

[CBDunkerson]

Originally Posted by Jshopes81

Youve certainly stretched "subsidy" about as far as possible with that example. The article even owns up to that.

My statement that you challenged was, "...like the billions of tax dollars which go towards keeping gasoline prices (at the pump) so low here."

Note the absence of the word "subsidy" anywhere in that text. That being said;

subsidy: a sum of money granted by the government or a public body to assist an industry or business so that the price of a commodity or service may remain low or competitive

Military spending to keep oil costs low qualifies. Zero stretching required.

[Jshopes81]

Originally Posted by CBDunkerson

My statement that you challenged was, "...like the billions of tax dollars which go towards keeping gasoline prices (at the pump) so low here."

Note the absence of the word "subsidy" anywhere in that text. That being said;

subsidy: a sum of money granted by the government or a public body to assist an industry or business so that the price of a commodity or service may remain low or competitive

Military spending to keep oil costs low qualifies. Zero stretching required.

Kind of funny, arguing even with the source for your point.

[SailorSam]

Originally Posted by Boogie_

That day will come when green energy production isn't dependent on fossil fuels and it's related products.

I got curious about this and ran some numbers. I may be off a bit but what I came up with is that to replace 2019 gas consumption the US needs to install 9,544 square MILES of solar panels. That is to replace gasoline consumption, heating and lighting is not included. I suspect it will take a while to build that much infrastructure.