Is buying a new dually diesel for 80k becoming a doomed investment

[Dave Pelletier]

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-range-towing/

From the article;

we estimate that towing anywhere near the Lightning's stated 10,000-pound maximum tow rating will lead to highway range in the double digits.

[Cumminsfan]

Lots of new EV technology is on the horizon.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90699140...s-in-5-minutes

Not car related but interesting none the less.
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...ithiums-lunch/

[bneukam]

The current trend is to have one larger ICE truck/suv and one EV per household, and that will continue to grow over the next 20 years.

Why aren’t we improving our rail system, to ease the overcrowding on our interstates, and help in the decline of semi operators. Electric trucks still take heavy loads down roads that require continuous repairs. Interstates that are used continuously by large trucks get repaired every 5 years, even with continuous maintenance. Do we even consider this?


Look at other areas of the world that have high fuel prices, they have a completely different mindset. They don’t haul large heavy RV’s down the road just to go camping. This is where all our concerns should be. For this reason the demand for HD trucks will decrease over time.

My neighbor bragged to me one day that he pumped over 1 million gallons out of his well, to water his large yard in one year. This is in southern Idaho where we are experiencing drought conditions. Just because we have the right to do something, doesn’t make it right. Everyone should consider their impact, and ways to improve, in all aspects.

[Kid Gloves]

Originally Posted by radar

Meh. Your experience has been different than mine. Go with what you know.

You seemed to know about the EV infrastructure in China, so I asked a question. Your lack of an answer, suggests otherwise.

[radar]

Originally Posted by Kid Gloves

You seemed to know about the EV infrastructure in China, so I asked a question. Your lack of an answer, suggests otherwise.

You were talking about I5. All I indicated was your experience with charging facilities is different than mine.

China? China is considered to have good main route charging infrastructure.

[tuffr2]

I had zero kids so little impact from me. People with.lots of kids - figure their impact.

[Kid Gloves]

Originally Posted by Dave Pelletier

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-range-towing/

From the article;

we estimate that towing anywhere near the Lightning's stated 10,000-pound maximum tow rating will lead to highway range in the double digits.

Exactly. There isn’t even a suitable EV replacement for a 1/2-ton right now. Sure, one can zip from green light to red, get to work and back or pick up some groceries. When actually used as a truck, especially for towing, it’s a disaster.

Take another 20% off the range estimate after the first charge to 80%. Then you’ll be charging again at 20%, or sooner, depending on the availability of charging stations. In that case, only 60% of battery capacity is being used. Cold temperatures will reduce range another 20-40%. It’s quite likely the truck will require 30 minutes of charging for every hour of driving time.

Very few people will find that to be acceptable.

[Kid Gloves]

Originally Posted by radar

You were talking about I5. All I indicated was your experience with charging facilities is different than mine.

China? China is considered to have good main route charging infrastructure.

I did mention I-5. And I stand by what I’ve observed over the past 11 years on that route. It wasn’t about my experience with charging stations, it was about my observations of drivers of EV’s.

I also, specifically asked you for some clarification on your statement about EV infrastructure not being an issue in China. To be more specific, in areas other than large cities. If I knew I wouldn’t ask. But China is quite large, so I’d like to hear how an EV could drive around the country in the same manner as an ICE vehicle.

[jimcumminsw]

Originally Posted by trx430ex

Thinking about the end of life of current E450 @250,000 miles. And what is coming to mind of investing 70 to 80K into a new E450 over a 5 year loan may be a foolish decision.

Thinking by the time that loan is paid off, that ICE E450 would be worth almost (0$) as electric trucks will be kicking ICE's ass at that point.

By cost of ownership.

Is anybody seeing this same synergy in 5 year loans for ICE vehicles depreciation?

Today's diesel duallys are beautiful trucks, but I see no future trade in value on a 70-80K truck in 5 years after 50% of new vehicles go electric.

Is anybody else seeing this destruction of ICE loan investment?

Are we witnessing the death of the diesel dually as a wise investment in 5 year loans?

You will never be able to pull a 5er any distance, say over 400 miles with an EV machine. The battery mass needed to provide the stored energy for the EV will take up all of the payload capacity of a 3500 DRW Truck.

Diesel's vehicles will be around for a lot longer than the next 5 years. As an example, my Dodge/Cummins truck is 14 years young and still going.

[kdauto]

Originally Posted by jimcumminsw

You will never be able to pull a 5er any distance, say over 400 miles with an EV machine. The battery mass needed to provide the stored energy for the EV will take up all of the payload capacity of a 3500 DRW Truck.

Diesel's vehicles will be around for a lot longer than the next 5 years. As an example, my Dodge/Cummins truck is 14 years young and still going.

Be careful, never is an awfully long time! I am sure it will take a while for EVs to become commonplace on anything with the capacity of a 3/4 or 1 ton pickup. That said, there are dozens of EV schoolbuses in my district. They've been operating for 3 years or so. I believe they still have a small gas or diesel generator onboard because i've hear the clatter from one last wnter through a tiny exhaust pipe.

They are working on garbage trucks locally, will be coming out with a bunch of medium duty EV trucks, likely those slated for local or city work.

[jacknife]

I doubt you will see Battery technology advance to the point where Diesel trucks go the way of the buggy . Your tow capacity and distance to haul a load and the time it takes to recharge will all work against battery power .On top of it all we do not have a grid to power it . Until they get serious and build nuclear power plants there just is not enough sun and wind to do it .

[4x4ord]

Originally Posted by bneukam

The current trend is to have one larger ICE truck/suv and one EV per household, and that will continue to grow over the next 20 years.

Why aren’t we improving our rail system, to ease the overcrowding on our interstates, and help in the decline of semi operators. Electric trucks still take heavy loads down roads that require continuous repairs. Interstates that are used continuously by large trucks get repaired every 5 years, even with continuous maintenance. Do we even consider this?


Look at other areas of the world that have high fuel prices, they have a completely different mindset. They don’t haul large heavy RV’s down the road just to go camping. This is where all our concerns should be. For this reason the demand for HD trucks will decrease over time.

My neighbor bragged to me one day that he pumped over 1 million gallons out of his well, to water his large yard in one year. This is in southern Idaho where we are experiencing drought conditions. Just because we have the right to do something, doesn’t make it right. Everyone should consider their impact, and ways to improve, in all aspects.

Why is it a big deal that he pumped a million gallons of water out of his well? Are you thinking it might have caused someone else to go without water?

[tuffr2]

I can see the day, probably in 10 - 15 years where all vehicles will be gas or diesel with electric assistance like the Toyota Prius. I bet that day is coming.

[radar]

Originally Posted by Kid Gloves

I did mention I-5. And I stand by what I’ve observed over the past 11 years on that route. It wasn’t about my experience with charging stations, it was about my observations of drivers of EV’s.

I also, specifically asked you for some clarification on your statement about EV infrastructure not being an issue in China. To be more specific, in areas other than large cities. If I knew I wouldn’t ask. But China is quite large, so I’d like to hear how an EV could drive around the country in the same manner as an ICE vehicle.

First, I’m not an expert. But if one googles the topic and which countries and regions have good infrastructure China is one of the better regions. And it’s also the fastest growing infrastructure wise.

Europe is the best. But Britain and South Korea also earn high scores. North America lags behind but some regions are coming along including the west coast of the US. Quebec is the best and BC is second. They have been duking it out for best EV network but Quebec has some serious infrastructure plans that will improve the north shore significantly. We’ll find out this year as we’ll be headed to Quebec from B.C. in June.

In my opinion the North American situation will improve a lot in the next few years. Both Tesla and Volkswagen ( Electrify America) have pretty big plans for expansion. In our province Tesla has doubled its Superchargers from 20 to 40 just in the last year. The challenge now is the north which started this year. Lots of challenges there though as many of those isolated highways have single phase power running along them. It’ll happen. One location at a time.

I find it interesting to follow. The EV and RV world will become more intertwined over time.

Cheers.