Is buying a new dually diesel for 80k becoming a doomed investment

[artpe54]

Really, your worried about a $80 truck depreciation when you are using it to pull an expensive RV that will depreciate even faster!

[kdauto]

Originally Posted by Kid Gloves

Or, maybe the Uber driver is sharing firsthand knowledge based on owning and operating the vehicle for 250,000 miles. Just because you service “some” hybrids doesn’t mean they all have costly issues. You only see the ones that need repairs. No one brings a trouble free car to a mechanic.

A Bolt will also have down time for an Uber driver, as it will need to be charged. Whereas a Prius needs only a quick stop at a gas station.

People bring trouble-free vehicles to my shop every day. I maintain them so they remain trouble-free. The ICE vehicles simply require more maintenance. The hybrids even more than that. I have maintained Prius taxis too. Many of them bought ONE and now are reverting to a cheap gas Corolla or pure EV. 2021+ Corollas with the hybrid option within 1000$ of a gas only Corolla complicate things.

Hey, different vehicles for different needs. If your hybrid works for you, great. I am not bashing hybrids, and have even recommended some to friends up until a few years ago. With the recharging infrastructure growing by leaps and bounds here EVs simply make more sense. With 400km range it can easily now become a main vehicle. Almost anyone can afford a 30-60 min stop for recharging after 4 hours of driving.

[Ldubs]

Originally Posted by bneukam

Why aren’t we improving our rail system, to ease the overcrowding on our interstates, and help in the decline of semi operators. Electric trucks still take heavy loads down roads that require continuous repairs. Interstates that are used continuously by large trucks get repaired every 5 years, even with continuous maintenance. Do we even consider this?

Your comment reminding me of something I read about the time and cost to build a mile of rail line in America compared to Germany. I can't remember the exact numbers, but what takes them a few months takes us 12 years, or something like that. Same on the cost side. Of course, as witnessed with the $billion fiasco with California's high speed rail line failure, most of the time and cost is for other than actual construction.

[Kid Gloves]

Originally Posted by kdauto

People bring trouble-free vehicles to my shop every day. I maintain them so they remain trouble-free. The ICE vehicles simply require more maintenance. The hybrids even more than that. I have maintained Prius taxis too. Many of them bought ONE and now are reverting to a cheap gas Corolla or pure EV. 2021+ Corollas with the hybrid option within 1000$ of a gas only Corolla complicate things.

Hey, different vehicles for different needs. If your hybrid works for you, great. I am not bashing hybrids, and have even recommended some to friends up until a few years ago. With the recharging infrastructure growing by leaps and bounds here EVs simply make more sense. With 400km range it can easily now become a main vehicle. Almost anyone can afford a 30-60 min stop for recharging after 4 hours of driving.

Perhaps I should have said, people don’t bring cars to mechanics that don’t require maintenance or repairs. Point being, you’re only seeing cars that need maintenance and repairs.

It’s entirely possible that the additional maintenance costs you see for hybrids could be less, on an individual basis, than what it will cost to build the charging infrastructure. That will likely lead to higher electricity costs which will increase the cost of operating a BEV.

ICE maintenance on our PHEV amounts to an annual oil change, even though actual ICE miles may be well below the recommended mileage interval. It is operating as a BEV, 90+% of the time. Regenerative braking minimizes wear on the disc brakes. However, the EV side of the car has all the same potential problem areas as a BEV. One bad cell and the entire battery gets replaced. That’s fine under warranty, but quite costly outside of a warranty claim. Battery cooling, Canadian models have battery warming systems, BMS, etc. There’s plenty to go wrong on a BEV.

Factor in battery degradation over time, reduced range in cold temperatures and down time for charging, to list a few, and it becomes apparent that it isn’t all unicorns and rainbows.

[Ldubs]

Originally Posted by Kid Gloves

Perhaps I should have said, people don’t bring cars to mechanics that don’t require maintenance or repairs. Point being, you’re only seeing cars that need maintenance and repairs.

It’s entirely possible that the additional maintenance costs you see for hybrids could be less, on an individual basis, than what it will cost to build the charging infrastructure. That will likely lead to higher electricity costs which will increase the cost of operating a BEV.

ICE maintenance on our PHEV amounts to an annual oil change, even though actual ICE miles may be well below the recommended mileage interval. It is operating as a BEV, 90+% of the time. Regenerative braking minimizes wear on the disc brakes. However, the EV side of the car has all the same potential problem areas as a BEV. One bad cell and the entire battery gets replaced. That’s fine under warranty, but quite costly outside of a warranty claim. Battery cooling, Canadian models have battery warming systems, BMS, etc. There’s plenty to go wrong on a BEV.

Factor in battery degradation over time, reduced range in cold temperatures and down time for charging, to list a few, and it becomes apparent that it isn’t all unicorns and rainbows.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean when you say only cars needing maintenance are brought to shops. Isn't it fair to say all cars should have preventive maintenance done routinely.

[PulNSerenity]

Originally Posted by Dark Sky

Work out how many additional kilowatts will be needed if just half of our vehicles are going to be EV's. Then dig into how long the permits will take to build the substantial number of new power plants we'll need, plus the extra distribution lines and so on, which of course will require more copper mining operations than we presently have, plus the additional rubber & plastics for the cabling, on and on.
I suggest the death of diesels in 5 years is unrealistic. 20 years maybe, but only if we get a lot further with our battery development and charging rates, and numerous other challenges. It's going to come, but Mother Nature will continue to make progress difficult.

100% agree!

[Kid Gloves]

Originally Posted by Ldubs

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean when you say only cars needing maintenance are brought to shops. Isn't it fair to say all cars should have preventive maintenance done routinely.

Can we include preventative maintenance under the umbrella of maintenance?

[dbircky]

Not saying past performance is an indicator of future performance…

Bought my 1996 F350 7.3 auto CCLWB new for 28k. As is sits in the driveway today with just under 390,000 miles it’s worth more than 50% of what I paid for it 26 years ago. I’ll check back in a another quarter century to see what an electric car bought today holds that kind of value.

Car and Driver Sep 2020. Electric cars coming off lease drop 52% in value in 3 years. iSeeCars did the evaluation. Tesla 3 has the best retention with only losing 10% value. (Possibly due to limited availability of new ones) Model s lost 36.3%. Still better than 5 year old Nissan Leafs losing nearly 90% in value!

It’s highly doubtful a diesel pickup will have little value in 5 years even if there is an equivalent (very doubtful) electric one ton pickup.

[Bylandorsea]

Originally Posted by MemByTheMile

Buying a truck is not an investment, it is an expense.

Will the value be $0 in 5 years? No, not even if totaled.

Personally, with duallys selling for ridiculous high prices now, unless you have an immediate need for a truck, I would wait until prices come down in a year or 2. Still won’t be an investment but any cash I had put aside could truly be invested while you wait for the expense cost to drop.

Originally Posted by trx430ex

Thinking about the end of life of current E450 @250,000 miles. And what is coming to mind of investing 70 to 80K into a new E450 over a 5 year loan may be a foolish decision.

Thinking by the time that loan is paid off, that ICE E450 would be worth almost (0$) as electric trucks will be kicking ICE's ass at that point.

By cost of ownership.

Is anybody seeing this same synergy in 5 year loans for ICE vehicles depreciation?

Today's diesel duallys are beautiful trucks, but I see no future trade in value on a 70-80K truck in 5 years after 50% of new vehicles go electric.

Is anybody else seeing this destruction of ICE loan investment?

Are we witnessing the death of the diesel dually as a wise investment in 5 year loans?

After years of crunching numbers the answer is that it depends for most,” investment” would make you think of making money, like purchasing a new truck to haul loads, pay off the truck and make a profit.

I like others mix this term with pleasure. In my mind I interchange $$$ and pleasure!

I have a boat and RV from both the only return from my money will be the memories and the lives that we touch while pursuing common interest with our family, friends and those that cross our path and that add value to our lives!

If anew truck adds value to your life, who cares, do it! If it gives you peace of mind, reliability or safety DO IT!

[Kid Gloves]

Originally Posted by dbircky

Not saying past performance is an indicator of future performance…

Bought my 1996 F350 7.3 auto CCLWB new for 28k. As is sits in the driveway today with just under 390,000 miles it’s worth more than 50% of what I paid for it 26 years ago. I’ll check back in a another quarter century to see what an electric car bought today holds that kind of value.

Car and Driver Sep 2020. Electric cars coming off lease drop 52% in value in 3 years. iSeeCars did the evaluation. Tesla 3 has the best retention with only losing 10% value. (Possibly due to limited availability of new ones) Model s lost 36.3%. Still better than 5 year old Nissan Leafs losing nearly 90% in value!

It’s highly doubtful a diesel pickup will have little value in 5 years even if there is an equivalent (very doubtful) electric one ton pickup.

Tesla has increased the price of the Model 3 a total of 8 times this year. They discontinued the standard range model, so the long range model is the new entry point. Seems the long range should now be called the standard range since it is the new base model, but they can charge more if it’s called long range. The new base Model 3, now costs $17K more than it did a year ago. That will certainly pump up used car prices. You may have noticed that has been going on recently in the auto industry.

[Ldubs]

Originally Posted by Ldubs

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean when you say only cars needing maintenance are brought to shops. Isn't it fair to say all cars should have preventive maintenance done routinely.

Originally Posted by Kid Gloves

Can we include preventative maintenance under the umbrella of maintenance?

Sure. Same thing in my mind. It is fair to say all cars should have maintenance done routinely.

[Cumminsfan]

Originally Posted by artpe54

Really, your worried about a $80 truck depreciation when you are using it to pull an expensive RV that will depreciate even faster!

This

[Kid Gloves]

Originally Posted by Ldubs

Sure. Same thing in my mind. It is fair to say all cars should have maintenance done routinely.

Agreed. I don’t recall having said anything along the lines of a vehicle not needing some sort of maintenance. The point I was attempting to convey was that a mechanic will only see vehicles that need some sort of maintenance or repair.

Similarly, many of the threads on this forum address people having a problem with their RV. Someone reading this forum might conclude, incorrectly, that “X” brand RV will have a failure of “name your part” within the first two years of ownership. When, in fact, that failure may occur, within that time period, in a very small percentage of RV’s.

So, in my opinion, the assessment of an entire line, or type of vehicle, as needing costly repairs, based on having repaired a very small percentage of them, is a questionable assessment.

[Ldubs]

Originally Posted by Kid Gloves

Agreed. I don’t recall having said anything along the lines of a vehicle not needing some sort of maintenance. The point I was attempting to convey was that a mechanic will only see vehicles that need some sort of maintenance or repair.

Similarly, many of the threads on this forum address people having a problem with their RV. Someone reading this forum might conclude, incorrectly, that “X” brand RV will have a failure of “name your part” within the first two years of ownership. When, in fact, that failure may occur, within that time period, in a very small percentage of RV’s.

So, in my opinion, the assessment of an entire line, or type of vehicle, as needing costly repairs, based on having repaired a very small percentage of them, is a questionable assessment.

We must be talking about two different things. If a mechanic will only see vehicles that need maintenance, and if all vehicles need maintenance, then it follows they will see a pretty good cross section. Of course, a lot of that maintenance will be routine oil/filter type stuff. But still, I would think a mechanic would have a pretty fair handle on common issues.

In general, I'm pretty skeptical about what I read on the internet and look for confirmation, just for the reasons you give.