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Old 12-08-2021, 09:35 PM   #1
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Is buying a new dually diesel for 80k becoming a doomed investment

Thinking about the end of life of current E450 @250,000 miles. And what is coming to mind of investing 70 to 80K into a new E450 over a 5 year loan may be a foolish decision.

Thinking by the time that loan is paid off, that ICE E450 would be worth almost (0$) as electric trucks will be kicking ICE's ass at that point.

By cost of ownership.

Is anybody seeing this same synergy in 5 year loans for ICE vehicles depreciation?

Today's diesel duallys are beautiful trucks, but I see no future trade in value on a 70-80K truck in 5 years after 50% of new vehicles go electric.

Is anybody else seeing this destruction of ICE loan investment?

Are we witnessing the death of the diesel dually as a wise investment in 5 year loans?
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:40 PM   #2
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I have NEVER bought a vehicle based on future trade in value.....

I buy based on WHAT I am going to use it for...right tool for the job

What ifs are an unknown and 5 yrs from now the powers to be may go in a different route.
EV's may one day be prominent-----------Maybe
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:57 PM   #3
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Who knows - maybe an ICE will be worth more because they take pressure of the electric grid.
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:58 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old-Biscuit View Post
I have NEVER bought a vehicle based on future trade in value.....

I buy based on WHAT I am going to use it for...right tool for the job

What ifs are an unknown and 5 yrs from now the powers to be may go in a different route.
EV's may one day be prominent-----------Maybe

Much respect old-Biscuit, but that is a lot of money over 5 years to go to 0$ in 5 years.

If Musk can build a class 8 semi in electric, a little F450 is not much a big deal to make.

Just been dwelling on making the investment, or milking this rig to electric replacement.

That's the point

We have never been here in this much transformation, and I don't want to be paying 5 years on something that is going to go to $0 value in 5 years.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:14 PM   #5
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You have to get out of kommiefornia and get that hole in your foil hat fixed. . In 5 yrs a dually deisel will be worth plenty.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:22 PM   #6
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You have to get out of kommiefornia and get that hole in your foil hat fixed. . In 5 yrs a dually deisel will be worth plenty.
Seeing 16 Tesla's today up from 4 a month ago, maybe not so much.

The change is happening faster than most think.

Globally.

When banks start cutting back (or raising rates) on 5 year loans for F350's then we will know.

Then there is secondary rates on insurance,, which becomes less to insure, builds a wave of purchase.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:23 PM   #7
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Just bought a Ram 3500 dually. I hope it won't be 0 in 5 years. I figure it will take time to be replaced with electric. They don't even have prototypes yet. Once the electrics are for sale with 1000 mile range pulling 20k 5er that doesn't cost 200k, then start worrying.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:31 PM   #8
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My 2017 F250 might go from $75k+ to $0 in a few years (doubt it) but I never intend to sell it so resale value is irrelevant. You dont buy a diesel truck to dump it five years later. If thats the plan, lease or buy a gasser.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:47 PM   #9
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Work out how many additional kilowatts will be needed if just half of our vehicles are going to be EV's. Then dig into how long the permits will take to build the substantial number of new power plants we'll need, plus the extra distribution lines and so on, which of course will require more copper mining operations than we presently have, plus the additional rubber & plastics for the cabling, on and on.
I suggest the death of diesels in 5 years is unrealistic. 20 years maybe, but only if we get a lot further with our battery development and charging rates, and numerous other challenges. It's going to come, but Mother Nature will continue to make progress difficult.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:54 PM   #10
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Iím holding on to my truck until they come out with an HD hybrid. Maybe a 6 banger turbo gas with an electric motor. 400 HP and 700 lbs feet of torque. No DEF to deal with. Awesome.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:55 PM   #11
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Quote:
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Work out how many additional kilowatts will be needed if just half of our vehicles are going to be EV's. Then dig into how long the permits will take to build the substantial number of new power plants we'll need, plus the extra distribution lines and so on, which of course will require more copper mining operations than we presently have, plus the additional rubber & plastics for the cabling, on and on.
I suggest the death of diesels in 5 years is unrealistic. 20 years maybe, but only if we get a lot further with our battery development and charging rates, and numerous other challenges. It's going to come, but Mother Nature will continue to make progress difficult.

Not to mention all the fossil fuels required to make all that electricity. And with diesels putting out nitrogen and oxygen (air), and a little water, my coach and truck pollute less than a Tesla
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Old 12-09-2021, 12:15 AM   #12
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Your dually is just broken in. My friend just sold it with 516K on it. I expect yours to go to at least 300K if you changed the fluids, fuel filter, etc. When we hit 100K we changed everything fluid or rubber or filter.
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Old 12-09-2021, 12:36 AM   #13
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There's never been any talk about HD trucks being elec in the future. Just 1/2 tons and only a couple models. Cars are a different story.

Per GM

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...electric-truck

In the meantime, GM wont’ be ignoring its conventional trucks. Next spring, it will be launching an updated Silverado that continues to be available with a diesel engine and will be offered with GM’s hands-free Super Cruise highway driving system.

"We’re going to continue to raise the bar on those internal combustion engine trucks," McQuaid said.


"While those customers are making the decision and getting ready for that transition we will have for them the [internal combustion engine] trucks that they want in that interim period."
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Old 12-09-2021, 01:40 AM   #14
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This is out there as an add on kit to add 220 lbs ft to a GM HD truck. Only available to fleets and starts @ $13k.

https://www.forconstructionpros.com/...-gm-hd-pickups
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