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Old 06-29-2022, 07:18 AM   #1
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Will Starlink Survive?

A version of this post got deleted from another forum because the mods may have thought it would create a ruckus. That is not my intent, so I've toned it down and will try to keep this non confrentational.

I have Starlink for RV. My first trip is in a few weeks and will be a beachside camping spot so I expect unobstructed skies. I've camped there before and the Internet via cell is poor at best. I've had Starlink for RV set up at my home and have been using for work for the last week or so. Zero complaints. Speed is not mind boggling. I expected as much as I am currently in a "waitlisted area" and Starlink for RV has always been advertised as "non-prioritized". But if you are thinking of getting this service you should be aware about the long term viability of the service as its user base explodes.

Currently there are only about 2300 satellites of the 40,000 planned in orbit. They get about 60 up there per launch, so even if they launched every week it would take almost 12 years to reach planned capacity. And that does not account for defective and failing satellites. Maybe the network does not require the 40,000 to be adequate, but who knows?

Here's where things get controversial. And I am not trying to light the Elon fans on fire here, just pointing out facts as I know them. Tesla has failed to deliver on many key promises: Full Auto pilot (Bloomberg reports 200 Autopilot employees played off this week), the Tesla Cyber Truck, Tesla Semi Truck. People have put down deposits on these items (in the case of autopilot they actually paid thousands of dollars for the option and are still waiting for it to be activated). Then there's SpaceX which while it has had success with the Falcon 9 and is currently the US' only way to get people into space, is struggling mightily with its Starship program. If SpaceX goes belly up, what happens to Starlink? Where will the money to keep the company alive come from if investors lose confidence? Maybe the US govt to keep the manned space program alive? People are criticizing Bill Nelson for trying to keep Boeing's space Starliner program alive. Maybe he knows something we don't about SpaceX?

And then there is the Dish Cellular/Data issue. I would imagine all Starlink owners recently got an email asking us to write our lawmakers to prevent Dish from converting their 12 GHz satellite bandwidth to terrestrial cellphone usage for their new network. I don't know all the details here, but if 12 GHz for cell use becomes active, it could seriously impact Starlink which operates on the same bandwidth.

There are folks in this forum who know far more about this stuff than I do. I've dropped about a grand on Starlink for RV but did so with my eyes wide open. And I don't need it for my everyday internet usage. But if you are thinking about buying Starlink, please consider if you're willing to buy something that may be defunct or completely unusable in the near future.
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Old 06-29-2022, 07:56 AM   #2
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First, I think for discussion Tesla and SpaceX needs to be separated. SpaceX has a responsible President and COO in Gwynne Shotwell. Their corporate leadership is more robust, despite Elon being CEO.

SpaceX has major, ongoing contracts across the US Federal Government and commercially. They wouldn’t go belly up unless they had major failures. As long as they keep putting stuff into orbit successfully, they will be fine. They are the only real alternative to United Launch Alliance.

Starship is actually doing quite well for what it is. As a country, we haven’t had any real development like that since the space shuttle. Their Dragon capsule took a while to be a success, same with Falcon 9.

Considering NASA still hasn’t launched any new major rocket or space vehicle on their own and Boeing hasn’t caught up with Starliner, SpaceX’s revenue will continue to be very high.

Starlink I think will also be fine. Generally spectrum wars are resolved where nobody is happy, but everyone that needs a particular band will have a spectrum sharing agreement and figure out a way to get along. I really doubt the FCC will give in to Dish completely and in the process knock Starlink offline. I also think the situation isn’t as dire as Starlink says because they just want to own the 12 GHz spectrum without sharing.

As far as constellation goes, considering they still limit who can get priority access in a particular cell, and those priority users are still doing quite well, I think the constellation has what it needs to function day-to-day with it’s subscriber base. More satellites will make it better and as long as they keep up with the launches, they should keep up with demand.

That’s my two cents.
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Old 06-29-2022, 07:58 AM   #3
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No idea if they'll survive. Cost of launching satellites is very high.

Starlink currently has 400,000 customers, each paying at least $100 a month (many are paying more than that), so $40m plus monthly income. At this point, I wouldn't expect them to be profitable as they're still setting up and launching like mad, but that does appear to be promising.
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Old 06-29-2022, 08:19 AM   #4
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You make great points. I have no idea what the connection between Musk and SpaceX is as compared to to Tesla. And I don't know what the drain Starship has on the company as a whole. As much distain as I have for Musk, when it comes to his record of failing to live up to promises NASA says "here, hold my beer". At this point, I can't see NASA allowing the manned Dragon capsule program to fail. They'd have to keep it propped up especially now that I cannot see use cooperating with Russia in light of the current Ukraine situation.

I like when private companies go out on a limb and sometimes reach far beyond their grasp. And Musk did not invent the Steve Job's Reality Distortion Field. From the standpoint of this forum, I'm only concerned with the effect all these things have on Starlink because many of our members are shelling out money to get the service. The immediate issues are realizing the impact of obstructions at your campsite and will the increasing user base hurt performance. As I said, I'm having no problems whatsoever using Starlink for work at home in a deprioritized area. My wife sometimes complains about interruptions to zoom cals. I don't do many of those, so it's not an issue for me.


Quote:
Originally Posted by kershman68 View Post
First, I think for discussion Tesla and SpaceX needs to be separated. SpaceX has a responsible President and COO in Gwynne Shotwell. Their corporate leadership is more robust, despite Elon being CEO.

SpaceX has major, ongoing contracts across the US Federal Government and commercially. They wouldn’t go belly up unless they had major failures. As long as they keep putting stuff into orbit successfully, they will be fine. They are the only real alternative to United Launch Alliance.

Starship is actually doing quite well for what it is. As a country, we haven’t had any real development like that since the space shuttle. Their Dragon capsule took a while to be a success, same with Falcon 9.

Considering NASA still hasn’t launched any new major rocket or space vehicle on their own and Boeing hasn’t caught up with Starliner, SpaceX’s revenue will continue to be very high.

Starlink I think will also be fine. Generally spectrum wars are resolved where nobody is happy, but everyone that needs a particular band will have a spectrum sharing agreement and figure out a way to get along. I really doubt the FCC will give in to Dish completely and in the process knock Starlink offline. I also think the situation isn’t as dire as Starlink says because they just want to own the 12 GHz spectrum without sharing.

As far as constellation goes, considering they still limit who can get priority access in a particular cell, and those priority users are still doing quite well, I think the constellation has what it needs to function day-to-day with it’s subscriber base. More satellites will make it better and as long as they keep up with the launches, they should keep up with demand.

That’s my two cents.
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Old 06-29-2022, 10:06 AM   #5
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Starlink is betting on Starship so the can launch more and better "version 2" Starlink satellites. Even Elon says Starlink needs Spaceship to be viable, Falcon 9 won't be enough.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/elon-m...es-into-orbit/
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Old 06-29-2022, 06:20 PM   #6
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If Starlink and Dish are using the same spectrum then Dish is already far behind due to their satellites being much farther away from Earth and older.

Starlink obviously has many more satellites so less congestion & newer so better tech. How can Dish compete? Offer a slower product for less $?
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Old 06-29-2022, 06:54 PM   #7
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IMO this is a issue that won't affect anyone for quite a few years. The 12 GHz band isn't currently allocated for 5G. A 5G band would have to be created and then hardware would have to be designed to use it None of that will happen quickly. This is just Elon Musk trying to get people all excited. Don't get me wrong; I have Starlink and like it, but this kerfuffle doesn't trouble me at all.
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Old 06-29-2022, 08:34 PM   #8
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Just to clarify here, it is my understanding that Dish has the rights to 12 ghz for TV broadcast intended to be used in major market areas, which was never developed they want the FCC to convert this 12 ghz license to 5G phone / data network nation wide. Starlink and other satellite operators use the same 12 ghz band for communications. This may be a threat to Starlink user, but even if the FCC gives its ok to 12ghz 5G it will take years to implement, and I suspect the courts will get involved, delaying it even more. In essence the FCC was double dipping on the 12 ghz band when they issued it years ago for this major market tv broadcast scheme that never came to fruition, then also allocated it for low earth satellites. I personally strongly suspect the FCC will deny the request to use this as a 5G band.
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Old 06-29-2022, 08:47 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kershman68 View Post
First, I think for discussion Tesla and SpaceX needs to be separated. SpaceX has a responsible President and COO in Gwynne Shotwell. Their corporate leadership is more robust, despite Elon being CEO.

SpaceX has major, ongoing contracts across the US Federal Government and commercially. They wouldn’t go belly up unless they had major failures. As long as they keep putting stuff into orbit successfully, they will be fine. They are the only real alternative to United Launch Alliance.

Starship is actually doing quite well for what it is. As a country, we haven’t had any real development like that since the space shuttle. Their Dragon capsule took a while to be a success, same with Falcon 9.

Considering NASA still hasn’t launched any new major rocket or space vehicle on their own and Boeing hasn’t caught up with Starliner, SpaceX’s revenue will continue to be very high.

Starlink I think will also be fine. Generally spectrum wars are resolved where nobody is happy, but everyone that needs a particular band will have a spectrum sharing agreement and figure out a way to get along. I really doubt the FCC will give in to Dish completely and in the process knock Starlink offline. I also think the situation isn’t as dire as Starlink says because they just want to own the 12 GHz spectrum without sharing.

As far as constellation goes, considering they still limit who can get priority access in a particular cell, and those priority users are still doing quite well, I think the constellation has what it needs to function day-to-day with it’s subscriber base. More satellites will make it better and as long as they keep up with the launches, they should keep up with demand.

That’s my two cents.
First, I think for discussion Tesla and SpaceX needs to be separated. SpaceX has a responsible President and COO in Gwynne Shotwell. Their corporate leadership is more robust, despite Elon being CEO.

So Elon Musk is irresponsible and Gwynne is more responsible and robist? Dude....really?
Elon 273 Billion net worth.

Gwynee Shotwell 426 million.

Could have made the comment without the shot across the Musk bow! Lol...
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Old 06-29-2022, 09:33 PM   #10
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In terms of broken promises: The Tesla overpromising failures were primarily failure of the technology to come as far, as fast, as they had hoped. The constellation of coverage issue involves known tech, and comes down to, can they finance and loft as many satellites as they say they will. They are both certainly significant issues, but really not linked in any meaningful way. I think it would be a mistake to use one as a predictor of the other.
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Old 06-29-2022, 09:33 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmandoug1 View Post
First, I think for discussion Tesla and SpaceX needs to be separated. SpaceX has a responsible President and COO in Gwynne Shotwell. Their corporate leadership is more robust, despite Elon being CEO.

So Elon Musk is irresponsible and Gwynne is more responsible and robist? Dude....really?
Elon 273 Billion net worth.

Gwynee Shotwell 426 million.

Could have made the comment without the shot across the Musk bow! Lol...
Net worth is not a measure of "responsible, adult behavior."

I'd note the recent open letter from SpaceX employees who wanted Musk to tone down his public behavior so SpaceX would be taken more seriously. Mr. Free Speech then had a bunch of them fired. While I don't advocate biting the hand that feeds, I find the "free speech for me but not for thee" to be vengeful and petty.
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Old 06-30-2022, 06:08 AM   #12
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I’ve seen a few of these posts along with a few YouTube videos and just wonder what’s going through people’s minds these days…

Starlink is a brand new service especially for “Mobile Means”! Everyone was complaining about it not being available for RV/Mobile so they released it 8 months ahead and now it’s being condemned and doubts that it will survive which is quite ridiculous.

I’m guessing that most of the ones complaining haven’t been watching from the beginning with the concept of their internet, thoughts to supply to rural areas that have absolutely horrible or Zero service, then design and build a Civilian Launch System that blew NASA out of the water and still does…Then they have literally just passed the 2500 satellite count mark which puts them only HALF-WAY through Phase 1 of the final estimation of 42,000 +/- in all to provide service to the entire Globe and not just America.

Then others bring up Tesla’s failures…Do these people own a Tesla? Probably not and probably are just Crow’s that learned a nugget of speech that they can add to their bad mouthing. Elon Musk is quite an unusual human that does what Elon wants, but it’s to make giant leaps of change in Tech, Industry and Life. Look at GM and what they did with their EV line, SCRAPPED and Recovered all the vehicle and had Zero intentions of doing that again. Tesla not only launched a vehicle that eventually became the fastest production vehicle on 4 wheels, but also a charging network for home and on the road. Now look at GM, Ford, Hyundai, Nissan, Toyota etc…that have jumped on the bandwagon and everyone keeps slamming Elon. What about all the tech that fails on launch every year that people buy that gets sorted out? Do you really ever see anyone start a post anywhere talking about how awesome their product is and what they can now do that they couldn’t in the past. He!! Naw!!!

At this point, I’m convinced that most people are hoping and rooting for Starlink & Tesla to fail just so they can say “See we told ya it wouldn’t work” and they had no clue or care nor did they own any of the technology because they sat back and let everyone else buy & test so they could judge. It’s not just Americans that have become incredibly miserable and negative, but the entire Globe…

Finally to the ones that keep saying that SpaceX is struggling and ready to go belly-up, you’re out of touch with reality and should turn off the news sources. Both SpaceX & Boeing went into this with the thoughts of profit being far in the distance and Boeing still has a ways to go for success. Do you realize how much SpaceX has successfully done for NASA by already performing missions that they couldn’t do because of the nutbag in Russia? I’m guessing that all these people are just hanging onto their 8 week old Starlink systems so they can continue to complain, but there are others out there that will gladly take it off your hands so you can jump to another technology to complain about.

How about give it some real time and join their support groups to Not Complain, but let them know what’s going on with yours and compare notes with others. You never know, but you may end up having a positive outlook…
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