Calculating RV Values Over Time

[Crasher]

Originally Posted by Kstills

Well, again, the baseline case is which manufacturers rigs are still being used against how many were built? That establishes a rough idea of longevity which could relate (one hopes) to build quality.

In the real world, that won't matter to most. They are still going to make their decision on what feature or floor plan that trips their "BUY" trigger. With the majority of buyers, the purchase of any non essential recreational item will be based on emotion. I suspect the highest overall quality will be with the upper end coaches selling for $500,000 up to 2.5 million. That's pretty much accepted in the industry. Non of that matters to the buyer with a budget under $300,000. They're going to select the coach within their budget that just feels right to them. After all, aren't all recreation purchases based on "Wants" and not "Needs" ?

[propchef]

Originally Posted by Isaac-1

All conditions being equal, I would agree with you, however it is my casual observation that in general only the more expensive RV's get stored indoors, on the most expensive get stored indoors in climate controlled storage.

This discussion sounds a lot like the luxury sports car market, with several parallels. In particular, I'm thinking of the Porsche 911.

- some get stored indoors, some even have climate control
- they are a recreational purchase. The 911's entire reason for being is to drive hard. It's not good for Home Depot or Costco runs. It's a specialized, extra purchase.
- risk aversion regarding reliability. While generally reliable, each model series seems to have its own Achilles heel. For the 996 generation, this includes an engine flaw that can be an expensive fix, around $20k IF you DIY.
- highly personal choices over a wide range of options and models. Do you want a 2004 convertible or a new GT3? There can be a half-million-dollar difference between them and each is used quite differently.
- it's an odd market that is highly specialized. 911s and other high-end sports cars seem to go their own way and don't follow typical used car trends.

I like OPs idea and think it's needed. I think "value" can be somewhat standardized for a general database such as this, but of course, there will always be outlying data. Intial cost, depreciation over time, how many are still in use, and average yearly cost of ownership as a percentage of current market value can all be considered to one degree or another.
AutoTrader and BAT both have databases that show the final SALES price, not just the original listing price. RVTrader doesn't (that I've been able to find). There are a number of sources for data, but as noted it will take time.

I love this guy. He follows only market values and doesn't dive into maintenance, but usually, P-car buyers already know the pitfalls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJGhxfweI0c

[Kstills]

Originally Posted by propchef

snip...... Intial cost, depreciation over time, how many are still in use, and average yearly cost of ownership as a percentage of current market value can all be considered to one degree or another snip.....

That got me thinking. I'll bet that is data that can be teased out.

[Rexlion]

I see a lot of 20. 30, and 40 year old Scamp trailers selling for what they cost when new, or more.

[Max Headroom]

Originally Posted by Kstills

My wife and I (me mostly) had spent a tremendous amount of time researching brands to find the ones which would provide us with the greatest RV experience with the least amount of RV anxiety.

There is no such animal. They are all going to cause anxiety.

What is a great RV experience to you? Staying at a resort CG in a million dollar coach, or heading out to the boonies in a camper? Or something in between?
Is it just you and the wife, or will you be bringing a bunch of kids, and their friends that will beat the snot out of the coach?
So many variables. The best bet is to reverse engineer from your intended use. Right there will eliminate 90% of whats out there.

If you really want to get a handle on good builds vs poor builds, go look at used coaches. You can learn a lot by just looking at how they hold up.

[Kstills]

[QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Max Headroom

There is no such animal. They are all going to cause anxiety.

Hehe, 'greatest experience, least amount of anxiety' means I expect anxiety, simply looking to minimize it.

What is a great RV experience to you? Staying at a resort CG in a million dollar coach, or heading out to the boonies in a camper? Or something in between?
Is it just you and the wife, or will you be bringing a bunch of kids, and their friends that will beat the snot out of the coach?
So many variables. The best bet is to reverse engineer from your intended use. Right there will eliminate 90% of whats out there.

Already did that, and that's great advice to folks just getting started. However, and what I'm intending to provide in little bits for folks, is what is and what is not a well built rig. Again, poor maintenance will doom a rig just like it will doom a house (one down the street from me just got completely demoed, probably less than 70 years old) but assuming equal care, which rigs hold up the best?

If you really want to get a handle on good builds vs poor builds, go look at used coaches. You can learn a lot by just looking at how they hold up.

For the purposes of providing this type of information, that sort of anecdotal evidence is impractical, but not wholly without merit. I will have time on my hands soon.... While not accurate in the micro sense, mining the used market data is the simplest means of providing macro guidance, imho.

[Kstills]

So, finished loading everything pre-1997. Will post some thoughts once I actually finish looking at the data.

Airstream and Provost ftw, from early results.

[TXiceman]

RVs are not bought for investment purposes. They are a declining value asset and bought for the enjoyment benefit.

If you are really concerned with potential loss of value, you need to look at buying a higher end used RV that is in the 3-to-7-year-old range. This way, you are not hit with the very high depreciation value that impacts all new RVs.

Ken

[Kstills]

Originally Posted by TXiceman

RVs are not bought for investment purposes. They are a declining value asset and bought for the enjoyment benefit.

If you are really concerned with potential loss of value, you need to look at buying a higher end used RV that is in the 3-to-7-year-old range. This way, you are not hit with the very high depreciation value that impacts all new RVs.

Ken

I keep getting the feeling folks don't actually read what's been written here.

I'm not equating RVs to real estate or even collectibles. I'm trying to tease information out of available data to provide potential buyers with a better idea of which RVs will hold up over time, IE provide better value for their 'investment'. Recognizing that said investment will 'lose' money over time, unless you factor in the value of being able to enjoy life more while using your rig.

[dbircky]

I’d love to help you on your quest, but since I can’t monetize my memories or comfort along a common, universal scale, and tend to use my purchase for a long time (last TT was sold after 21 years, still have the truck that towed it now 27 years old) the best I can offer is this:
Buying anything discretionary - the value varies upon the purchaser. For example, you can buy a ribeye for 16.99 a pound or sirloin for 8.99 a pound. Some people value the taste and texture of the ribeye enough to pay the increase, others just want a steak and the sirloin is good enough.
How’s this relate to RVs? Buy what you like, use it as you like, enjoy the experience, and savor the memories. In the end - they all turn to crap anyway.

[dizcom]

Originally Posted by Kstills

That got me thinking. I'll bet that is data that can be teased out.

How? Some people use their RV's once a quarter at most and others live in them full time. Some people keep their's indoors in California and others keep them outdoors in Michigan...and no one keeps track of which one has done what.


Anyway, isn't what you're thinking something that NADA or Kelly already do?

[TXiceman]

Originally Posted by Kstills

I keep getting the feeling folks don't actually read what's been written here.

I'm not equating RVs to real estate or even collectibles. I'm trying to tease information out of available data to provide potential buyers with a better idea of which RVs will hold up over time, IE provide better value for their 'investment'. Recognizing that said investment will 'lose' money over time, unless you factor in the value of being able to enjoy life more while using your rig.

Yes, I read your post and still feel that there are too many variables to quantify your research question. A lot of factors go into determining the value over the longer term. Things like:
-Is the RV weekend or full-time use?
-Is it driven a lot or is it parked most of the time?
-How well is the RV maintained?
-Stored indoors or outdoors?
-How many people were using the RV?
-Was the RV used on salted roads or near the beach?
-Was it used a lot in the winter or extreme heat areas?
-How well equipped was the RV or did you have a lot of poorly installed items?

And the list goes on. All these items will influence the life of the RV as well as the final value. So, you will wind up with a big spread on the value that would apply to a particular. Of course, you can always go to the NADA Guides and plug in that number.

A noobie will unknowingly value it more as they will have stars in their eyes.

I still think you have a unicorn chasing rainbows.

Have fun with your research.

Ken

[Flyer15015]

Let's see, the criteria is; "greatest RV experience w/ least amount of anxiety".
In my case, first up was a 1976 GMC Eleganza. Great to drive, terrible to camp.

Next was a 10 year stint owning a KOA campground in central Colorado.
Boy did we see the full range of rigs. Fixed a lot of them...........

Upon our sale, we tried a 2007 Jayco Seneca 33ss (super "C"). Great to drive but living in fear of the diesel motor which I know nothing about, and we got tired of the wind noise at anything over 50 MPH.

Traded for a 2004 Pace Arrow 37c (8.1 gasser) which we dearly love. Great floor plan, panoramic windshield, all seating on one level, and good tow capacity.
So, having found our "sweet spot" we've got a coach that will serve is the rest of our days, and passes the "experience / anxiety" test.

Mike in Colorado

[Kstills]

Originally Posted by dbircky

I’d love to help you on your quest, but since I can’t monetize my memories or comfort along a common, universal scale, and tend to use my purchase for a long time (last TT was sold after 21 years, still have the truck that towed it now 27 years old) the best I can offer is this:
Buying anything discretionary - the value varies upon the purchaser. For example, you can buy a ribeye for 16.99 a pound or sirloin for 8.99 a pound. Some people value the taste and texture of the ribeye enough to pay the increase, others just want a steak and the sirloin is good enough.
How’s this relate to RVs? Buy what you like, use it as you like, enjoy the experience, and savor the memories. In the end - they all turn to crap anyway.

If the builder who built your home had a track record of his homes falling apart after 10 years, is that information you would want to be aware of?

Originally Posted by dizcom

How? Some people use their RV's once a quarter at most and others live in them full time. Some people keep their's indoors in California and others keep them outdoors in Michigan...and no one keeps track of which one has done what.


Anyway, isn't what you're thinking something that NADA or Kelly already do?

RV Consumers Guide does something very much like what I'm going to do, I'm hoping that I can find additional data to add to theirs. I've looked at NADA and their data is very rudimentary.

Originally Posted by TXiceman

Yes, I read your post and still feel that there are too many variables to quantify your research question. A lot of factors go into determining the value over the longer term. Things like:
-Is the RV weekend or full-time use?
-Is it driven a lot or is it parked most of the time?
-How well is the RV maintained?
-Stored indoors or outdoors?
-How many people were using the RV?
-Was the RV used on salted roads or near the beach?
-Was it used a lot in the winter or extreme heat areas?
-How well equipped was the RV or did you have a lot of poorly installed items?

And the list goes on. All these items will influence the life of the RV as well as the final value. So, you will wind up with a big spread on the value that would apply to a particular. Of course, you can always go to the NADA Guides and plug in that number.

A noobie will unknowingly value it more as they will have stars in their eyes.

I still think you have a unicorn chasing rainbows.

Have fun with your research.

Ken

Well then, since it's difficult, might as well not try.

Originally Posted by Flyer15015

Let's see, the criteria is; "greatest RV experience w/ least amount of anxiety".
In my case, first up was a 1976 GMC Eleganza. Great to drive, terrible to camp.

Next was a 10 year stint owning a KOA campground in central Colorado.
Boy did we see the full range of rigs. Fixed a lot of them...........

Upon our sale, we tried a 2007 Jayco Seneca 33ss (super "C"). Great to drive but living in fear of the diesel motor which I know nothing about, and we got tired of the wind noise at anything over 50 MPH.

Traded for a 2004 Pace Arrow 37c (8.1 gasser) which we dearly love. Great floor plan, panoramic windshield, all seating on one level, and good tow capacity.
So, having found our "sweet spot" we've got a coach that will serve is the rest of our days, and passes the "experience / anxiety" test.

Mike in Colorado

Great idea contacting park owners to get information on rigs they have to fix and what went wrong with them.

Thinking reaching out to techs would also be a great idea.