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Old 12-23-2020, 12:43 PM   #1
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Coming glut of used RVs

RVing had been increasing in popularity for the last few years. Probably in part due to lower gas prices. Now in the COVID age it is really booming. I saw in the news the other day Thor Industries had a $9 billion dollar order backlog. But what about after things start getting back to normal (whatever that means)? Iím wondering if the gobs of. Ew RV owners are going to go back to airplanes and hotels and sell/trade in their units? Could be a real buyerís market out there (and a real pain to sell your used unit.
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Old 12-23-2020, 12:50 PM   #2
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There MAY be a surge of low mileage used units when people figure out camping/RV-ing isn’t what they thought. When they find,out they didn’t build tons more campgrounds for the surge of RV units being rented or bought and have no place to go. No one knows when that timeline will commence.

That said.....we just sold our 10 year old 35’ Class A for full asking price in just 2 weeks, back in June 2020.

If you want to sell.....springtime is best, because people have the fever and the camping season is just starting.

If you want to buy.....the off-season is best, because you can offer lower money just be there aren’t as many people shopping, AND you know you’re basically going to just bring it home and store it. This is a good tactic to justify the price to the seller.
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:08 PM   #3
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A lot of COVID campers are going to be selling in the next 12-18 months, IMHO.

Besides the shortage of campsites, you have insurance, crappy fuel economy, dealing with fuel stops, holiday traffic, learning to tow or drive an RV, unexpected maintenance issues, a dealer network and warranty process that is often useless, and in the snow belt, paying for a bank loan on a toy that you can only use half the year, storage costs... Many of these folks had no idea what they were signing up for.
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:11 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steve52 View Post
A lot of COVID campers are going to be selling in the next 12-18 months, IMHO.

Besides the shortage of campsites, you have insurance, crappy fuel economy, dealing with fuel stops, holiday traffic, learning to tow or drive an RV, unexpected maintenance issues, a dealer network and warranty process that is often useless, and in the snow belt, paying for a bank loan on a toy that you can only use half the year, storage costs... Many of these folks had no idea what they were signing up for.
X2 ^^^^^^^^
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:19 PM   #5
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I think we'll continue to see empty dealers lots and full camp grounds until fall of 2022. About the same time that the warranties start to age out along with roof seals renewal, first round of heavy chassis maintenance and other must do items come due. Plus I think the COVID light will still be flashing in the corner of the eye of a lot of owners thru 2021. A good indicator will be when cruise lines start scheduling events again.

Or it all goes back to normal in about a month.
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:27 PM   #6
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My observations indicate that the tendency is for people to hold on to RVís. Look at all the storage facilities that are almost always full of unused, or rarely used RVís. There are driveways and side yards that hold RVís everywhere I look.

The people who had the means to buy an RV at a time when millions lost their jobs are likely to keep it, even if the initial appeal wears off and it sits idle 95% of the time. It could serve as accommodations for a study from home college student, a friend or relative who has lost their job, as a place to quarantine someone who is ill, or as a rental.

Recent fires have destroyed homes. Many escaped in their RVís and those who lost their homes are now living in their RVís. Fire victims often buy RVís after losing a home. I donít have numbers, but would imagine that most keep the RV after rebuilding.

The current situation may or may not improve in the near future. There could be another that is as bad or worse. My $.02, which I offer at no cost or obligation, is that there will not be a glut of used RVís on the market in the foreseeable future.
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:32 PM   #7
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My crystal ball says....
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Old 12-23-2020, 02:15 PM   #8
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The glut, if it comes, will happen when alternative, more traditional, means of escape become safe and reliable. As mentioned, cruise ships, but also destinations themselves like Europe and Asia, as well as domestic locations that support large crowds. When the alternatives appear and are cheaper and more convenient than owning the rv, the glut will begin.

As to how soon this will happen, is anybody's guess.
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Old 12-23-2020, 02:30 PM   #9
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I was working on our Discovery the other day when a couple came by in
their golfcart.
We talked about Rving, they just bought a new coach, 34 footer, because of
the Covid.
Their comments were telling: "didn't realize how complicated a RV could be,
have had trouble finding a campground to go to. Cost more than what
they thought.
Jumped in with both feet.
I suspect lots of people have done this.
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Old 12-23-2020, 02:50 PM   #10
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RV Manufacturers, RV Parks, RV Dealers, RV Repair Schools and RV Storage lots are all betting big dollars that this trend is not going to end anytime soon. And, unlike all the folks on RV forums that are "betting" with their comments, they are betting with hundreds of millions of dollars.

Someone will be right and someone will be wrong. I'd put my money where the money is.
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Old 12-23-2020, 03:10 PM   #11
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On the other hand, current campgrounds are expanding as fast as they can, professional corporations are buying out lots of marginal Mom & Pop campgrounds, improving them and adding spaces, Programs like Harvest Host are bringing thousands of Golf courses, wineries, craft businesses into the business, allowing overnight free stays for travelers.
The industry will adapt and offer even better new coaches for the newer buyers.
This will partially offset the new volume coming into the industry.
New coaches will cost more, and this will bring up the value of older coaches as well.

In the past, there were thousands of campsites going unused on all but the busiest of holidays. Now I believe occupancy rates will rise as well.

Gas is still cheep, financing also cheap and available. Pretty easy to get into a new coach. Just not enough of them immediately available right now.
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Old 12-23-2020, 04:59 PM   #12
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I don’t know if there will be a glut of Class A Diesels but, I think there will a glut of all the other RVs when people get back to normal.
Why, they will miss the hotel resorts, cruise, and will freak at the cost of upkeep.
Most Class A Diesel owners already know and accept it costs and have decided on the RV lifestyle. Of course there will be the few buy on impulse idiot out there, but then it gives the real RVer a chance a a deal on a used RV than has no miles on it.
Just my opinion on 20+ yrs of RVing

My small Rv repair shop says he’s totally booked this winter fixing older RV and trailers. Most TTs. People are keeping their older ones and just fixing them instead of overpaying for new.
I guess it’s a good idea for the seasoned camper. He told me he cancelled his winter vacation, just too busy making $$$.
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Old 12-23-2020, 09:06 PM   #13
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I for one hope there will be alot of RVs for sell, and if by this summer, even better as I want to step up. Bought mine 11 months ago just to go along with our SXS habit. Didnt want to get in deep as had no idea if we would use it, so we purchased one that we could sell easily if it turned out it wasnt working out. But now having it for this summer and doing a couple other outings besides with the SXS, learning what we would like to have now, I could see upgrading this summer. Do to the lower investment in ours, whatever it would bring would be a non issue.
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Old 12-23-2020, 09:43 PM   #14
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Buy low, sell high.

If anyone truly believes the market will be flooded with blowout prices on RVís next summer, or winter, or the following summer, now would be the time to sell. Just invest the money until thereís blood in the streets.

Itís almost a guarantee that your RV will be worth more today than it will a year from now. Especially if everyone is dumping their rig next year.
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