New inflation numbers

[2cyber71]

Bring Paul Volker back from the dead.
He had guts to do the right thing

[move on]

Originally Posted by 2cyber71

Bring Paul Volker back from the dead.

He had guts to do the right thing

Yes he did. It worked back then, but could he do it today?

[Gammel]

Ridiculous to consider this thread as anything other than an adult discussion of economics.
IT ISN'T POLITICS! IT'S ECONOMICS!

"It worked back then, but could he do it today?"

Volcker benefited from a less convoluted situation but I believe Powell & Co
will succeed. The coming recession should actually help bring down inflation.

[PJStough]

Originally Posted by Gammel

Ridiculous to consider this thread as anything other than an adult discussion of economics.
IT ISN'T POLITICS! IT'S ECONOMICS!

"It worked back then, but could he do it today?"

Volcker benefited from a less convoluted situation but I believe Powell & Co
will succeed. The coming recession should actually help bring down inflation.

The whole purpose of driving the economy into recession is too slow down inflation.

[Rexlion]

My inflation numbers are 35psi and 50 psi.


I suppose if the fuel price got really bad, I could buy a Corolla and tow a motorcycle trailer. Probably 30 mpg or better. I hope it doesn't come to that.

[Rexlion]

Originally Posted by PJStough

The whole purpose of driving the economy into recession is too slow down inflation.

That is classic Keynesian economics, all right. Unfortunately, this inflation is being driven primarily by supply issues. When demand remains steady but supply decreases, the price goes up. This is what has happened to fuel, food, and even unusual items like baby formula. The price increases are eating into disposable income, so purchases of non-necessities are declining (for example, RV sales down 31% April 2022 vs April 2021 IIRC). But purchases of necessities, by their nature, can't really decline (unless they cannot be obtained). We are seeing "stagflation" taking hold. Raising interest rates won't help one bit because the supply problem will still exist.

Since the petro cost has risen so much so quickly, affecting the price of fertilizer and the diesel used in tractors, some farmers are not planting or have changed what they plant. We won't see how that plays out in the food supply until fall. But we already see some truckers parking their trucks because they're losing money. Without transport, supply shortages worsen. And I have heard (but not verified) that some stuff sitting on CA docks is being discarded because there's no more room to stack things and it isn't being picked up fast enough.

Things aren't looking rosy, and I think it will get worse before it gets better. Hope I'm wrong... I'd like to be wrong.

[Donskiman]

I'm not too sure that crippling the economy with 20% interest would work the same as it did 40 years ago. Supply chains are vastly different now and far more is produced globally. The US has become far too dependent on goods produced by other countries and we're seeing the dire effects of supply chain interruptions across many industries. Since many are interconnected, it's become a major problem for almost everything.

It's also doubtful there will be a return to 55 mph speed limits to help drive down consumption as a method to decrease demand to lower prices.

The US is not isolated from the global economy and many other industrial countries are having the same problems with inflation and high energy prices. It's doubtful the US is going to solve these issues on its own.

[Cumminsfan]

Originally Posted by Rexlion

That is classic Keynesian economics, all right. Unfortunately, this inflation is being driven primarily by supply issues. When demand remains steady but supply decreases, the price goes up. This is what has happened to fuel, food, and even unusual items like baby formula. The price increases are eating into disposable income, so purchases of non-necessities are declining (for example, RV sales down 31% April 2022 vs April 2021 IIRC). But purchases of necessities, by their nature, can't really decline (unless they cannot be obtained). We are seeing "stagflation" taking hold. Raising interest rates won't help one bit because the supply problem will still exist.

Since the petro cost has risen so much so quickly, affecting the price of fertilizer and the diesel used in tractors, some farmers are not planting or have changed what they plant. We won't see how that plays out in the food supply until fall. But we already see some truckers parking their trucks because they're losing money. Without transport, supply shortages worsen. And I have heard (but not verified) that some stuff sitting on CA docks is being discarded because there's no more room to stack things and it isn't being picked up fast enough.

Things aren't looking rosy, and I think it will get worse before it gets better. Hope I'm wrong... I'd like to be wrong.

I think you're more right that you are wrong unfortunately.

[MCCOHENS]

If you look at the timing of this the shutdown of Russian oil caused a shortage which drives up prices due to supply/demand curves. Then the oil companies took advantage and threw in their greed factor. Limited refineries is always the stock excuse to add some pennies to the price.

The answer? Wish I knew. We are pretty much parking the rig for a while. Just bought an old beat up prius and I am so loving the 45 mpg average so far. The US is a huge consumer of oil, if we all made a serious effort to limit oil use it would drive down prices.

What I would like to see but know it won't happen is to declare a national emergency and stop exporting our oil. Set a national cap on price per barrel and the rest of the world can go suck eggs and fight over the rest. Or maybe follow England and hit the oil companies with a huge windfall tax, like 125% of the profits and then send the money to the oil consumers. But neither will happen so as usual the consumer is screwed. Wait until we start needing heating oil!

[ArtJoyce]

Saw the headline "New Inflation Numbers" I figured tire inflation they changed the charts. One of those subjects that everyone has different thoughts in the RV world. Not Macro Econ inflation. Boy the world of RVing is Changing.

[Cumminsfan]

Filled up the truck ($154, 26 gal), a 5 gal gas can ($28) and got one propane tank topped off ($16). Heading out in a couple days for 5 nights at a CG that we get the senior discount of 50% off so $11 per night with an $8 online registration fee so $63.
So $261 for 5 nights 4 days. I think that's pretty doable in todays inflation climate. It still hurts to pay this much for fuel but at our age we're not sitting around and watching the months go by starring out the front window of our house.
CG is round trip doable (214 miles) from our home so one tank of diesel. If we run into a nearby town which we will for a breakfast on morning I could if needed grab $20 worth of diesel as a cushion for the return trip.
The same area has nice cabins for rent that approach $200 and up a night.
$1000 just for lodging doesn't sound appealing at all.

[Keith55]

Originally Posted by Sweetbriar

Labeled as Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rather than the more ominous "inflation rate". https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

And if you want to see how the commodities futures are looking like in real time - https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

I assume the inflation numbers are calculated the same way all the time. Boy does it feel like inflation is even more than the BLS are suggesting.

I dont remember all the prices for everything I buy but when I do some quick math tells me they are more than the reports.

I am not suggesting the numbers are "funny" but maybe not as inclusive as what I typically buy? Maybe everything that goes into the index is generic?

I dont count the number of RV's on the road when I drive but I definitely feel like there are substantially less than last year.

[jacwjames]

I do most of the grocery shopping and am woefully aware of the costs of groceries. In the past I would watch for sale prices and stock up. Unfortunately it seems like the sales are not as robust as they use to be.
I also read the news and from what I see it doesn't look like there is an end to the inflation in pretty much all categories. If you look at the commodity pricing most all sectors are up.

IMHO, I believe the feds acted to slowly on this issue. I think they were in denial (NO not the river in Egypt). Now there is talk of a 3 basis point raise.



As for myself, I was hoping for a summer trip but the rig will stay parked for now.

I'm keeping myself busy around the house, just finished cutting, splitting, and stacking four cords of wood.

[Crasher]

Like many, our coach is paid for, but I still consider that its value could be making me money instead of depreciating. When I add in the annual maintenance, insurance, registration and repairs, it's costing me a bunch just sitting there. When I add in the cost of fuel to travel the 8500 miles we do each year, my total cost is up 20% over last year. It would only be up 10% if the Covid/economy slow down hadn't lowered fuel prices giving us a smaller number to compare to. None of this changes the price of fuel, but it helps me put everything into perspective.