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Old 03-01-2021, 04:01 PM   #15
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Hope they do give up unless they are serious and know how to fix basic stuff on their rv...
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Old 03-01-2021, 04:55 PM   #16
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My .02 is that there will be plenty of units up for sale by the end of the year. Having been at a campsite which had plenty of twenty something campers that didn't seem to know the first thing about what they were doing I would say they won't make it past their first year. Even had one stop me while I was walking the dogs and ask me to hook up his sewer hose and dump his tanks because it was " too icky" for him to do. My answer was to give him a destination for his hose. People like that will not be rv'ers for long.
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Old 03-01-2021, 05:05 PM   #17
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Retired Baby Boomers are buying RVs. Winnebago has recorded a backlog of $1.85 Billion. This "boom" will continue for several years.
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Old 03-02-2021, 04:16 AM   #18
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I would say that as most of the newbie questions on this board and others now concern water and waste issues anybody looking for a newer used unit in the next few years better be looking for water damage.
I'm thinking that someone that wanted to go back to work on a part time basis could make nice mad money helping those whose dealers didn't do a very good job on the walk thru.
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Old 03-02-2021, 06:05 AM   #19
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Retired Baby Boomers are buying RVs. Winnebago has recorded a backlog of $1.85 Billion. This "boom" will continue for several years.
The backlog seems to be split 70/30 TTs to motorhomes (Newmar) and it is mostly backfilled dealer inventory. This according to WGOs fiscal first-quarter report. https://winnebago.gcs-web.com/news-r...er-fiscal-2021

Yes, the boom is likely to continue, but with new units? Or used? New car sales are down but used are booming. When full manufacturing comes back AND the tourism industry reopens I think you'll see a slowdown.

About once a week I do a search for used TTs in the 30 ft range, not bunkhouse, and today I got 208 hits within a 200-mile radius. If I include new I get more than 1200 hits. The inventory is out there right now.

We bought a property in Florida in 2005. If you recall, back then we were in the middle of a HUGE real estate boom with prices literally rising day by day, and bidding wars for properties were common. We refused to get caught up in that despite our realtor telling us "it's real estate. It CAN'T go down!" Boy was that wrong. We found a property hours after a sale fell through and got a good deal, but no one expected what came in 2007-08. What a nightmare.

Set a budget and be patient and persistent. The deals are out there. The market will do what the market will do.
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Old 03-02-2021, 06:22 AM   #20
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I've seen numerous posts here about the difficulty finding campers / RVs, but we were in central Florida a couple weeks ago, and passed several large RV dealers that had lots overflowing with hundreds of campers and motor homes! I'm not looking for anything, but just thought it was interesting that there was no apparent shortage of campers in Florida like I keep hearing about in other parts of the country. (These were new, not used.) Anyone have any thoughts on why that might be the case?
I don't know if this is representative of the industry as a whole, but what I have seen around where we live is that many dealer's lots are full, but they are full of trailers and large Class As with little or no Class Cs or Bs. That is, the models that most newbies might be interested in are gone while the others are clogging the lots.

We go to the annual Quartzsite RV show since we live about 2 1/2 hours away and there are always a lot of Class B, B+ and C models for sale, but this year there were none. Absolutely zero. A lot of trailers and 5th wheels, and a lot of 40+ foot Class As, but no B, B+ or Cs available for sale.

We have been looking for a small twin-bed model as a possible replacement for our 2018 Fuse and have hardly been able to find anything, and what we do find disappears very quickly. Try to find an actual Thor Axis/Vegas 24.1 for sale on a dealer's lot. I have checked RVTrader and called dealers within about a 1000 mile radius, and everything is either "on order" or "already sold". One dealer told me that he had one coming in "in about 10-12 weeks", but it already had someone's name on it. He told me I could come in and look at it when it arrived, and place a special order, but that was all. Same with Winnebago Navion/Views and all of the other popular models in the small B+ or C size.

Perhaps it is different in Florida, but what kind of RVs do you actually see on the dealer's lots? Take a close look and see if there are any smaller motorized RVs.
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Old 03-02-2021, 06:25 AM   #21
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Retired Baby Boomers are buying RVs. Winnebago has recorded a backlog of $1.85 Billion. This "boom" will continue for several years.
I also believe that to be true. I think that those who are looking for an RV glut in the next 6 months or so are going to be very disappointed.
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Old 03-02-2021, 09:02 AM   #22
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I also believe that to be true. I think that those who are looking for an RV glut in the next 6 months or so are going to be very disappointed.
I also agree, with one possible exception. The example of the twenty something couple not wanting to dump their tanks because it was icky will most likely be in the 6 month for sale grouping. They, as a general observation, are not camping in a 30+ ft. trailer. The entry level under 30 footers may be plentiful in the used market.
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Old 03-02-2021, 09:30 AM   #23
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We drive by a Camping World occasionally that is looking pretty full. We are next to a new RV park that has at best been 25% full, even in February which is the busiest month in FL. Hard to know what to think.
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Old 03-02-2021, 05:57 PM   #24
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With all that said, I have been wondering since the "boom" started how long it would last before those who weren't prepared for the time and money side of RVing start dumping their purchases, flipping the RV seller's market to a RV buyer's market.
Future RVer here. I expect the boom to last through this year at least. Reservations, especially on weekends, are already booked up pretty well. If people checked their reservation possibilities *before* they bought the RV, they probably wouldn't buy it. But that's not the way people roll.

I thought we'd see a flood of almost-new RVs for sale last fall, out of frustration and avoiding winter storage fees. That didn't happen. We'll probably see private sales pick up in the fall, when last year's buyers reach their frustration limit.

2022:
-probably lots of near-new RVs for sale, but they won't be worth what the people owe on them, so asking prices will be high and these won't impact sales much.
-A bunch of new RV parks will spring up, both exanded and new parks. Many will be reasonably priced. This will be a good thing.
-Since Americans never let an opportunity go by to make a buck, some current RV parks will be bought up by investors who see a cash cow. They will slap on a pool and hot tub, rename it a "resort," and double the price. They will learn the hard way that people don't want to pay resort prices and be parked five feet from their neighbors. You will now have plenty of open spots for your RV, just not at the price you want to pay.
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Old 03-02-2021, 09:02 PM   #25
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Big tow behind bust coming..... Biden said today they will have enough vaccine for every adult by the end of May.......

Lots of people tried a local camping trip last year and decided it wasn't for them... No harm no foul but they will want to start to dump their units but August.
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Old 03-03-2021, 07:13 AM   #26
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We drive by a Camping World occasionally that is looking pretty full. We are next to a new RV park that has at best been 25% full, even in February which is the busiest month in FL. Hard to know what to think.
I think there are 2 reasons for that, neither having to do with the supply of RVs. First, many of the Canadian snowbirds can not come to the US for the winter and so many of the spaces at warm weather RV parks are still open. We checked at one of the parks near Key West and were told that they still had spaces because their snowbirds were not all there.

The other reason, I think, is that many are still concerned about the virus and worry about getting sick, and that may continue for as long as some state authorities are warning their citizens to stay home.
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Old 03-03-2021, 07:34 AM   #27
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Future RVer here. I expect the boom to last through this year at least. Reservations, especially on weekends, are already booked up pretty well. If people checked their reservation possibilities *before* they bought the RV, they probably wouldn't buy it. But that's not the way people roll.
I don't disagree, but I believe there are several reasons for this that have nothing to do with new buyers.

I believe that part of the shortage is directly due to the unavailability of parts for new RVs. Yes, Winnebago has a large backlog of units, but I believe part of that is due to the inability to get new add-ons like air conditioners, refrigerators, generators and so on. As long as the businesses that make those parts are shut down or restricted in how people can work, there will not be enough parts to get enough RVs built to meet the supply.

Added to that is the increasing unavailability of MB Sprinter Chassis, having to do with the large Amazon purchase. Several MB-based RV manufacturers are now moving to Ford Transit Chassis to try to get units out the door, but that will take some time as it probably requires retooling of some of what they do. LTV now offers a Transit based unit when all of their units used to be Sprinter based. Other manufacturers either have, or probably will, follow suit and one manufacturer's model that we were interested in that used to be totally Sprinter based will be producing Transit based models soon, and have a large backup of Sprinter based models because they can't get the chassis.

But it is true that there are now many more RV users. Places that we used to go to without reservations are now so busy that we make sure we do have a reservation before we go. One example is the California State Parks along the coast. We used to make summer reservations but go in the winter without any reservation because they were only half full. Now the entire park is sold out 6 months in advance, winter or summer.

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2022:
-A bunch of new RV parks will spring up, both exanded and new parks. Many will be reasonably priced. This will be a good thing.
-Since Americans never let an opportunity go by to make a buck, some current RV parks will be bought up by investors who see a cash cow. They will slap on a pool and hot tub, rename it a "resort," and double the price. They will learn the hard way that people don't want to pay resort prices and be parked five feet from their neighbors. You will now have plenty of open spots for your RV, just not at the price you want to pay.
Perhaps, but I am not so sure. There is a shortage of RV spaces now and I have not seen many new parks. This area (Phoenix, AZ) is a snowbird magnet and I have seen one new park (which is now almost completely full) and the State Parks are completely full, but I have not seen any indication that there are going to be many new commercial parks.

Mostly we have changed from stopping at parks to dry camping and boondocking and this being Arizona with empty desert all around, that has not much been affected by the boom, but I don't see any reason to believe that the current increase in RV usage will crash anytime soon.

I do believe that the backlog of RV sales will slowly drop as manufacturing picks back up, perhaps this Spring or Summer, but I don't believe that many of those new RVers will be unhappy with their new units. Why should they be when the whole idea of getting out and away from home appeals to so many of us? Yes, some will find it is not what they expected, and they will sell their units, but I think most will find it as attractive as many of us do now.
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Old 03-03-2021, 08:26 AM   #28
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I think we're at or near the top of the boom, especially with yesterday's vaccine announcement. In fact I bet there are at least a few people who have orders in for RVs because they thought it would be the only way to travel this summer but will now try to cancel them because they can get vaccinated by May.

It won't crash because there are lots of different risk tolerances. It will slowly go back to normal but I think that new normal will be a permanent increase in the market for a couple of reasons. Remote work will stick around in some form. People spent a whole summer basically forced to do the type of tourism that encourages RV purchases.

So I think you'll see another spring/early summer of empty dealer lots and long waitlists. Then we'll see more units hit the used market this fall/winter. And by next year it will have settled into a new baseline and from there I think the rest of the industry, like RV parks, will begin to catch up.
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