Community Forums

Meandering Retiree · 02-17-2009, 06:23 PM

Not to be negative, but I anticipate that the market will drop to 6500 as the bottom before it begins to really rebound. Prior to that time the market will bounce up and down for the profit takers and short gain artists. The same may happen for the oil prices before they settle at $30 a barrel.

We were fortunate to have pulled everything out of the market except a couple of mutual funds last January. Don't ask me why, just the same feeling that we had in 1996 and 2000 when we moved money out of the market.

What recession? Discretionary spending is really high here in Tucson.

motojavaphil · 02-18-2009, 06:32 AM

Hey Meandering,
I get a sense the market will find its way to 6500, I am not sure about oil since it is manipulated so easily. Greenspan indicates this is a big and long recession equal to 1929 and perhaps more. We packaged up all those nice loans, put triple AAA on them and sold them to overseas markets. When it all dumped those markets went with us. Its not just us despite it being our greed. We have a long way to go.

tmar10 · 03-06-2009, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Not to be negative, but I anticipate that the market will drop to 6500 as the bottom before it begins to really rebound. By Meandering Retiree

As an economics instructor, I remembered someone mentioning the 6500 bottom a few weeks ago. Hopefully Meandering Retiree is correct and has some more information for the masses.

Route 66 · 03-06-2009, 01:37 PM

My crystal ball is still cloudy, but it's always been cloudy.

Meandering Retiree · 03-06-2009, 05:05 PM

How about 5800, or even 5500? My wife thinks that people are going to use what money they have to pay off their credit cards since they are raising the interest rates so high. I agree with her. People have to pay off past debts before they take on new debts.

Tucson is not hurting yet but shopkeepers tell me that once the snowbirds leave, they look for a drop. Prepare for the worse, pray for the best.

TXiceman · 03-06-2009, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Route 66:
My crystal ball is still cloudy, but it's always been cloudy.

What crystal ball?... Once the CEO's leave, there will not be a crystal left anywhere...

Ken

tmar10 · 03-06-2009, 06:28 PM

There a numerous corporations that would be better off with a change of upper management...and maybe there will be some defective thread in their golden parachutes.

With the way things are going right now in Washington and on Wall Street, 5000 is not unrealistic. I just hope somebody wakes up prior to seeing another month like February.

Lindsay Richards · 03-10-2009, 12:07 PM

I have been on US 27 several house twice in the last few days and have noticed a large number of out of state RV's heading North which usually signals the end of the snowird season and means we Floridians can get back into the no reservation camping again.

Noelj · 03-10-2009, 12:25 PM

Just got back from a short trip down the Natchez Trace and beyond. Came home a bit early because there were no weekend reservations or campsites in any LA state parks. During the week OK, but weekends are all reserved for many weeks to come.

GatorDog · 03-10-2009, 12:56 PM

We have plans to retire next year and split our time between our cabin in the NC mountains, my mother in law's house in Panama City, Fl and on our RV taking a look around the block. We didn't loose a whole lot of money because both our pensions are State Funded Guarranty. Now however, we can't sell our condo in SW Florida becasue the market sucks. The administration doesn't look like they know what they are doing.

Is the not knowing which direction to take that's a problem.

EngineerMike · 03-10-2009, 01:19 PM

There are enough of us here who lived frugally and saved that the demographics of snowbird RV'ing won't change due to this recession IMO. However, demographics of new RV's with near 100% financing is d-e-a-d. Families won't be storing new rigs w/shiny new loans in their driveways, which is good for America long term IMO, tho bad for RV mfgr's as the widespread BK filings show (Fleetwood filed today).

FWIW (and its worth what you pay to read it) I'll call the bottom to the stock market last week. When the market sees that you have equal risk premiums on chances for GE defaulting on its debt as for 3rd world countries, a limited amount of reality is bound to filter in thru the Dan-Ratheresque garbage passed off as "news." (Tho it is at least somewhat funny using GE as the harbinger, as they own NBC, ha ha ha).

Once the 92% of the employed public shifts out of dire fear mode, and necessity as the mother of invention reclaims some part of the other 8%, we will be on solid footing for recovery. That usually arrives 3-9 months after the stock market starts smelling fresh air and realizes the doom & gloom have overshot any reasonable probablility of the actual future.

I also believe, as others here, the biggest threat to the American way of life is the belief we can cure a hangover, born of drunkenly spending stupid amounts of borrowed money, by drunkenly spending more & larger amounts of stupidly borrowed money. Somehow that "logic" eludes me.

chasfm11 · 03-11-2009, 05:40 AM

Quote:

Once the CEO's leave, there will not be a crystal left anywhere...

Several of them, Immelt from GE for example, have run their companies into the ground. That company's stock under Jack Welsh had 10 times higher value. When you add in things like the fact that GE was trading with Iran in spite of US sanctions, guys like Immelt cannot be gone soon enough. Perhaps their successors will actually have to be accountable to the Boards of Directors.

There are going to be companies who will profit from our current problems. I just wish I knew which ones..

TXiceman · 03-11-2009, 05:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meandering Retiree

The same may happen for the oil prices before they settle at $30 a barrel.

Let's not hope for $30.00/bbl oil. This will kill the oil industry world wide. Most of the oil companies projects are modeled on $65 to $80/bbl oil in order to make a profit. The companies have to make a major committment to spend $$$ to get the oil out of the ground and processed. Just about all of the cheap-sweet crude has been found and now they have to work a bit harder to get the out out and processed.

We do need to develope viable alternate energy sources, but oil will still be a big part of the energy profile for several more years. And as long as oil is too cheap, people will forget how we got to this state in the first place and continue to drive gas guzzling oversized vehicles for everyday use. Then we will all be running in circles yelling "The sky is falling, the sky is falling."

Ken

Meandering Retiree · 03-11-2009, 11:54 AM

I agree about the oil. Right now it is holding about $45 a barrel. It should probably rise based on OPEC, but you are right. People are still driving fast and enjoying the low prices. I am old enough to know that what goes up comes down and what comes down go up. My brother-in-law thinks that gas should be about $2.50 a gallon so the oil companies make money and keep exploring. He has a valid point, but we need to find a stable point, low enough for the consumers, high enough for OPEC, and high enough to keep exploring for new oil. Our oil stocks bounce around but we will hold on to them because of the continued need for oil. The DOW is up, but for how long?