CoronaVirus Update

[Itchytoe]

Originally Posted by rodekyll

Yes, I got that he was making a comparison. The obvious isn't lost on me. What I'm missing is the relevance.

It was an attempt to put things in perspective. The corona virus is getting so much attention right now, but it's not as deadly as the flu. People should be more worried about the flu than the corona virus, but aren't. You shouldn't worry about the corona virus if you don't worry about the flu enough to get the flu shot.

[Jake21]

Originally Posted by Itchytoe

It was an attempt to put things in perspective. The corona virus is getting so much attention right now, but it's not as deadly as the flu. People should be more worried about the flu than the corona virus, but aren't. You shouldn't worry about the corona virus if you don't worry about the flu enough to get the flu shot.

I disagree. Estimated numbers that I can find for the 2019-2020 flu, and this is on the low side is, 26,000,000 cases / 14,000 deaths. Around .05-.06% death rate.

Corona. 71,000 cases / 1700 deaths. Around 2.5% death rate. If it had the same death % as the flu, there would be 35 deaths. That is a big difference.

If my numbers are off, let me know.

Also, this virus is so new, and spreading so fast i think we all need to be concerned, or at least stay informed. I go to China 2-3 times a year, so I am following pretty closely and talking to my Chinese suppliers nightly.

[Itchytoe]

When there are major flu outbreaks, the fatality rate is about 2-3%. When there is no flu outbreak it's extremely low because those that would normally die from the flu, get the flu shot so they don't get sick. Those that do get sick are the people who are healthy and not at risk so they don't get the shot. Those people are also the least likely to suffer significant complications.


If you look back in history, people treated the swine flu, bird flu, and H1N1 strains the same way the Corona virus is now. It was always a horrible new virus, the likes of which have never been seen before. Except that it wasn't. I suspect the same will happen with this new viral strain.

[WyCamper]

Originally Posted by Itchytoe

If you look back in history, people treated the swine flu, bird flu, and H1N1 strains the same way the Corona virus is now. It was always a horrible new virus, the likes of which have never been seen before. Except that it wasn't. I suspect the same will happen with this new viral strain.

Except that it was, and they were. And governments and the WHO shifted into high gear to first contain the outbreaks, then isolate the virus, then develop treatments and vaccines. Scientists and doctors work around the clock to slow and stop the new virus from becoming a pandemic. That's how it works, and people who are ignorant of that shrug and say "meh, it was no big deal".

One of these days a new virus will emerge that will spread too fast to contain and be too lethal to treat, and those same people will blame those same government scientists and doctors for not doing enough. Oh well.

[rodekyll]

Originally Posted by Itchytoe

It was an attempt to put things in perspective. The corona virus is getting so much attention right now, but it's not as deadly as the flu. People should be more worried about the flu than the corona virus, but aren't. You shouldn't worry about the corona virus if you don't worry about the flu enough to get the flu shot.

No it wasn't. A perspective would offer perspective. This did not. It just threw out a number with no context and no conclusion. I was curious about the relevance. I find that there is none, since there is no equivalency between flu and COVD19. As others are pointing out, it's not the raw, single number that's significant. What's significant in terms of the human threat are the number of deaths per number infected and the optimism for getting the virus under control before it becomes a pandemic. In those respects this coronavirus is a lot more dangerous.

From https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-...ronavirus.html

The coronavirus outbreak, however, is proving to be more deadly than the flu. It has killed roughly 2% of the people who have contracted it so far, according to world health officials. That compares with a mortality rate of 0.095% for the flu in the U.S., according to CDC estimates for the 2019-2020 flu season. The CDC estimates that 21 million people will eventually get the flu this season

The raw numbers there say that the reason more people aren't dead from the virus is that not as many have become infected. With COVD19, the same number of flu infections that will kill 5 people will kill 100.

Coronavirus is a family of bugs. COVD19 is just one variant. Its best known cousin is the common cold. Considering human's ability to prevent and cure the common cold, what do you suppose the chances for developing a COVD19 vaccine even as limitedly effective as the flu shot will be?

[Itchytoe]

Originally Posted by WyCamper

Except that it was, and they were. And governments and the WHO shifted into high gear to first contain the outbreaks, then isolate the virus, then develop treatments and vaccines. Scientists and doctors work around the clock to slow and stop the new virus from becoming a pandemic. That's how it works, and people who are ignorant of that shrug and say "meh, it was no big deal".

They weren't new and unlike anything we've seen before. They were all extremely similar to what we've seen before. We even knew they were strains of the flu. That's how we figured out how to treat it so fast. They were simply overblown in the media, because that's what sells papers. Yes, many people put in a lot of work to find cures, but we were fighting the flu, not the black plague. Based on everything we've seen so far, this corona virus is extremely similar to the flu, but not at all like the black plague. If it was something that actually was new and not just like things we've seen before, there wouldn't be anything a doctor could do. We would simply have to rely on our own immune systems to figure it out before it wiped us all out. That's clearly not the case here with the corona virus.

Originally Posted by WyCamper

One of these days a new virus will emerge that will spread too fast to contain and be too lethal to treat, and those same people will blame those same government scientists and doctors for not doing enough. Oh well.

You're getting pretty deep into it there. Microbes have been trying to wipe us out since there was us and microbes. We've always won that war. There's no reason to think they will just suddenly pop up and wipe us out. We've got a pretty good handle on them. Yes, there will be occasional times when a new strain shows up and kills off some people, but the odds of another black plague level infection is extremely low.

[GypsyR]

Hey, look at that. I'm learning more actual information about this virus from people arguing on a camper discussion forum than I am from standard news sources.

[Eez Moose]

Originally Posted by GypsyR

Hey, look at that. I'm learning more actual information about this virus from people arguing on a camper discussion forum than I am from standard news sources.

On the forums we just try to educate one another the news media is all about selling advertising.

I do agree with you on the irony of what is going on.

[Conesus1]

Originally Posted by GypsyR

Hey, look at that. I'm learning more actual information about this virus from people arguing on a camper discussion forum than I am from standard news sources.

Sad ain't it.
And just like the news you get opinions vs facts and fake news!!

[Jake21]

100 more fatalities in 24 hours.

[F4Gary]

US flu deaths up to 17,000 this season.


Here is a good info video on the Corona virus. Helps explain in layman's terms what it is and how it spreads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIL5m5XznNY

Keep your hands away from your face.

[stinger608]

Originally Posted by Randalpho

I made a bookmark and check it at least once a day, it's from John Hopkins.

Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Excellent link by the way!

Would seem that the numbers are climbing in the US.

This morning it was 100 and now 124.

Would seem that the Seattle area is the worse of the bunch in the US.

[rodekyll]

Right now the WA death rate is about 20%. That means either it's much more deadly than previously thought, or that there are a huge number of infected people in the region that are presently undetected. Neither is a good scenario.

From where I live I can see the hospital in Everett where one guy died. Luckily, I'm on an island and I'm looking at it from across Puget Sound. The majority of the other cases are in a single nursing home in Kirkland, about 40 miles from here. There are ~108 residents and ~180 staff, and ~half of them are showing symptoms as of this evening. Six have died. They expect more sick and more dead from the one building.

I think it's interesting that some folks here are concerned about the impact of the virus on their health, and others are worried about how it will affect their wealth.

[F4Gary]