Is GM the tip of the iceberg?

[raineman]

For some time I have been reading articles in the financials about a significant down turn in the economy predicted to hit sometime in 2019. Some farmers are already hurting and now GM is a laying off 14,000+. That's going to sting. Wondering if the predictions are correct.

Please refrain from any political comments.

[Unicorn Driver]

Possibly. Very scary.

[nothermark]

The answer is probably. I just looked at sedan sales for another question and saw that they have been steadily dropping since last spring. Sometime in the summer they dropped below 30% market share to SUVs and light trucks. They are continuing to fall across the board. Ford was the first one to cut sedan production, now GM and I expect Toyota, Honda and Hyundai to be along soon.

I see it as rather interesting as the electric car market has mostly developed the small sedans folks are moving away from. That puts and interesting question of who is going to buy what self driving electric vehicles GM and others are setting out to produce. Either they are going to be SUV class vehicles or they will face a shrinking market.

[Beau388]

According to CNBC, truck sales are up 8%, SUVs 11% and crossovers up 18% as compared to last year. Car sales are down 21% year to year. The US is in the second longest economic up cycle in US history. If it goes past March 1919, it will be the longest.

[on safari]

We need to support the company's that helped the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
in WWII.
My thought anyway.
Regards
Mike

[wildtoad]

They can make as many small electric only cars that they want, but until they have the very rapid charging infrastructure to support them, they will be a niche market, or limited to urban usage. GM is doing exactly what they need to do by eliminating brands and body styles that are not selling, or profitable. Ford has already announced a similar plan to shutter all cars except two and focus on what people are buying. I’m not sure these actions are indicative of the economy in general, just the auto industry.

[Searching_Ut]

GM, like the other US market auto makers is shifting from production of small cheaper cars to larger more expensive trucks and SUV's. If and when the market goes down, demand will probably swing the other way. It looks like GM is getting rid of their Hybrids, hard to say what they will do fully electric wise. It appears their corporate take is also that they can't economically produce in the US and will continue to move production.



Historically, the economy goes up and down, virtually never even and steady. Things being at a high level now, history tells us it will drop, probably a fairly significant swing if history repeats, which is the norm. Predicting exactly when the swings will take place, and how significant they will be is one of those things that can make you a lot of money if you're accurate with it.

[2Yung2 Quit]

The good times don't last forever. I've seen it go up and down my whole life. Live within your means and save for the lean times.

[bluepill]

The auto business is unstable by nature, even when buying trends are stable. Auto purchase expense is second only to housing, so those two sectors have the greatest sales swing as the economy goes from strong to weak. Add in the hard-to-predict shifts in market segment, and you have a formula for great instability.

I was in the field for most of my 45 year working career, and always stayed in the "Back End" (Parts and service) rather than the "Front end" (Sales), where the swings were much less violent.

[baraff]

Yeah, pickups and giant SUVs are hot right now, just like they were before gas hit $4+ the last time. Gas will skyrocket again, people will ditch the guzzlers and small cars (and EVs) will dominate yet again. Seen it before, several times. Remember the Hummer?

[powercat_ras]

It is possible to lose 20-30 % of money invested in stocks quickly as can be seen from the graph below. Over the long run historically stocks have the best total return. Since WW2 Stocks have beat all other investments over any 7 year period.

Personally I buy great US companies, including GM and Ford, and hold them. The dividend income is good. That said both have under-performed the overall stock market lately.

Sad to say that much of this is due to Ford, GM, and Chrysler taking good care of their retired workers, they both have much higher expense cost to provide the benefits they promised their workers who are now retired then their newer competitors making vehicles in the US like Mazda, Honda, Toyota, etc.

[raineman]

Unlike many, we have little debt. We are watching our neighbors use their homes like ATM's and refinancing to squeeze whatever equity they may have gained. If housing prices dip, here we go again.

Several new cars in the neighborhood in the last 2 years. The majority reflecting the trend of trucks and large SUVs.

[radar]

Originally Posted by wildtoad

They can make as many small electric only cars that they want, but until they have the very rapid charging infrastructure to support them, they will be a niche market, or limited to urban usage. GM is doing exactly what they need to do by eliminating brands and body styles that are not selling, or profitable. Ford has already announced a similar plan to shutter all cars except two and focus on what people are buying. I’m not sure these actions are indicative of the economy in general, just the auto industry.

Hmmm. There are not a lot of small electric vehicles being made, at least not in the US. Which ones are you refferring to?

Most of the Electric vehicles being made in the US are medium or large and most of them are Tesla’s. And Tesla has a pretty extensive and rapidly growing Supercharger network not to mention that the vast majority of charging is done at home (over 90 percent). I believe Tesla has the fastest selling sedan in the USA right now. I don’t mean Electric sedan, I mean any sedan. Year over year growth of electrics is showing no signs of slowing anywhere in the world. I would think GM is wise in putting more research and resources into EV’s. One of the reasons Cadillac sales are off is customers going to the Tesla model 3 or model S. Take a Cadillac for a drive and then take a Model 3 or S for a drive and it’s pretty much a no brainer.

Right now GM is producing about 2100 EV’s per month. Tesla is producing a 1000 per day and rising. . At some point somebody at GM has to take notice of that. The next 3 years will be interesting.

[raineman]

Tesla will end up leasing their charge stations to GM and others.