Sign Of A Decline In The Economy?

[ChiefJohn]

National RV went under and dealerships are closing -- paints a bleak 2008 for the RV industry.

Longtime California Dealer Closes Operations
RV Business
Wednesday, December 19, 2007

A longtime Southern California dealership is closing its doors, according to a report in the Antelope Valley Press, Palmdale.

Young's RV in Lancaster shut down operations Tuesday (Dec. 18), citing declining sales, and laid off 60 workers.

Ron Schroeder, who has operated the dealership about three years, said he was forced to shut the business down and will return the inventory to the manufacturers.

James and Lew Young, the brothers who started the business more than 40 years ago and still own the facility, will seek to lease the site to another RV dealership, Schroeder said.

"We are a victim of a declining market as a result of the recession. We weren't able to cut expenses as quickly as we needed to," Schroeder said. "The market over the last year has been a challenge for us. We weren't able to secure the outside help we needed."

The dealership was started 44 years ago by the Young brothers, who moved the business closer to the Antelope Valley Freeway in 1976.

The dealership had been owned by Roy Padgett since 1988 until Schroeder acquired it. It comprises two 10,000-square-foot buildings, one as a showroom and one as parts and service facility. The dealership carried 10 brands of new RVs, including Fleetwood, Thor and Sunnybrook.

[ChiefJohn]

National RV went under and dealerships are closing -- paints a bleak 2008 for the RV industry.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Longtime California Dealer Closes Operations
RV Business
Wednesday, December 19, 2007

A longtime Southern California dealership is closing its doors, according to a report in the Antelope Valley Press, Palmdale.

Young's RV in Lancaster shut down operations Tuesday (Dec. 18), citing declining sales, and laid off 60 workers.

Ron Schroeder, who has operated the dealership about three years, said he was forced to shut the business down and will return the inventory to the manufacturers.

James and Lew Young, the brothers who started the business more than 40 years ago and still own the facility, will seek to lease the site to another RV dealership, Schroeder said.

"We are a victim of a declining market as a result of the recession. We weren't able to cut expenses as quickly as we needed to," Schroeder said. "The market over the last year has been a challenge for us. We weren't able to secure the outside help we needed."

The dealership was started 44 years ago by the Young brothers, who moved the business closer to the Antelope Valley Freeway in 1976.

The dealership had been owned by Roy Padgett since 1988 until Schroeder acquired it. It comprises two 10,000-square-foot buildings, one as a showroom and one as parts and service facility. The dealership carried 10 brands of new RVs, including Fleetwood, Thor and Sunnybrook. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

[Summit1]

agreed- mostly
At the national dealer show last month, the addressed the economic forecast. The prognosis is that 2008 will be much like 2007, with a chance of being slightly lower.
The trouble is that we (I work in the RV industry) have become used to record breaking years and anything less is alarming. 2007 will be in the top 10 with regard to total motorhome sales.
A little correction is okay too.
Just my two cents worth.

[NeilV]

The problem with these reports of a loss is that many times it is the loss of the 30% Plus profit margin. I have talked to bean counters who lamented that we lost X Million Dollars and then see that they posted a profit or bonus to their top management or investment group. When you ask them about it they explain that the investors expected 20 million dollars profit this year but only made 17 million so they lost 3 million in unrealised profits and are threatening to pull out.

We live in a time of extreme greed and this is a big part of the problem. Losses that are not really losses, multimillion dollar bonuses for management that does not work and equity groups taking over companies and running them into the ground after taking a few years of unrealistic dividends from them. Then like locusts they move on to the next one to suck dry.

[SeeTheUSA]

Now here's a conflicting sign (maybe the sky is NOT falling):

Quote from news wire 12/20/2007-
DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnnebago Industries Inc. said Thursday its profit rose about 26 percent in the first quarter as more customers bought more profitable high-end motor homes and the company spent less on promotions.

The Forest City-based company reported a profit of $10 million, or 34 cents a share, in the three months ended Dec. 1, up from $7.9 million, or 25 cents a share, a year ago.

Sales increased 6.6 percent to $215.1 million from $201.8 million in part due to an additional week in the quarter.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected 35 cents a share on sales of $215 million. The earnings estimate typically excludes one-time items.

The recreational vehicle industry has faced a difficult market in the past few years as fuel prices and interest rates climbed.

Winnebago CEO Bruce Hertzke said he was pleased with the quarter, which included higher sales of Class A motor homes, a turnaround from recent quarters in which consumers had been buying lower cost and lower profit smaller units.
End Quote

[jfb]

What really is/are indicator(s) of a decline in the economy? The media would like to have us believe that the economy is declining and jump on everything negative to prove their point. But, to their credit, they also report the positive aspects of the economy. Granted, I believe a lot of people are pulling in their horns for this Christmas season but mostly because some of their descretionary income is paying for higher fuel costs and home-owners' interest. But employment rates are staying high.

We could discuss various indicators all day, and what they could/may predict for the future. Me, I'd like to see the price of fuel come down and hope that my taxes won't rise, to mention a few.

Is it proper on this forum to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Anyway I will!

[Jeff_in_The_Dalles]

I think it would be hard to judge the overall economy based on conditions in the RV industry...

Don't forget where the price of fuel is right now... I would think that would effect sales of Regular Joe type RV's, but probably wouldn't hurt the sales of the big $$$ RV's (since fuel costs probably aren't a concern for the folks who buy those).

Also, I think for a lot of people when their confidence in the economy is a bit shaken, the plan to buy a new RV would be the first thing that gets cut back.

I see a stagnation and continued deflation in housing prices, but overall I think the outlook isn't that bad.

Just my non-expert $0.02

[hamguy]

Of course the economy is in the toilet. Unemp is way down to 4.XX%, incomes are up, prime rate is 5.xx% and inflation at about 3%.

Not like the glory days of Carter when we had Unemp of 10%, incomes stagnant, prime at 10% and inflation at 10%+.

[Every Miles A Memory]

We saw the economy taking a dive and thought, what better time to sell everything, buy an RV and travel around for the next few years till it rebounds

Might not work for everyone, but who wants to be sitting in a house with a declining market and no job to speak of?

That's just our take on it, but then most think we're crazy!!

Pat

[BryanL]

perhaps all those trailers that FEMA is no longer buying for Katrina victims has something do to with the RV sales downturn?

I notice that the GDP growth rate for the last quarter is way up (again) and the 'weak' dollar has US exports booming.

[lwmuddy]

Polls are for the birds.
It depends what questions are asked and how it is phrased. What is the pollster looking for.

Negative sells. Unhappy sells. Scary sells.
Threats of impending doom from security breaches to terrorist attacks.

If you watch the news it is the negative that sells and brings people back after the commercials to see what happens.

The TV news says "Gas prices soring again during the Holidays".
I see the sing down the street that says "$2.76 per gallon, that not long ago said "$3.15 per gallon?

It appears that humans are not truly happy unless they are truly Unhappy.

Change a normal occurrence.

Maybe the RV dollars are stretched too thin between all the different manufacturers and it is just thinning itself out.

If, all of a sudden many more people decide to buy RV's there might be more manufacturers added to the mix. Maybe not.

Just because the "Media" says something don't take it as gospel.
Ask yourself, what do they have to gain by saying that? and WHO paid them to say that?

Maybe the sky is not falling, but rather the Earth is rising.

[skipwil]

LW: i agree completly. if it's not BAD-figure a way to make it that way. our gas prices flucuate.10+/-
per month.as sure as the TV talking heads say it "will be such and such" it goes up. too bad no one thinks positive anymore. i've found to stay away from the pump til the price drops. still if we are told how things are we'll belive anything. there are very few things i NEED but a lot i WANT. my want's normally work themselves out of the way,and life goes on. life is how EACH of us percieve our values.if WE think doom & gloom i'll bet it surely visits our door. i don't worry,just keep on rving! anyway------
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL & to those who believe otherwise WORK don't take the days off.
joe

[new-to-rving]

the economy today is a global one not anything like even 10years ago, what happens in china or the middle east can effect us here at home, raw materials like copper, steel and concrete are in high demand in china for their major building of factories of {yes] U.S. companies gaining from very low labor wages and no enviromential control, the urest in the middle east drives up concerns, europe's comin currency help make them a colective power. all makes people drop back and slow spending, i say have fun but think smart cause only the strong survive

[Rick A]

Yes the economy is now a global one and what happens in other countries seems to effect us here more than what we do at home. I judge the economy by my bank account balance. With wild fluctuations in fuel prices we as a middle class working family have cut way back on a lot of things because of the uncertanty. I think economists have forgotten who truely supports the economy and needs to stop worrying so much about Wall Street, and worry more about main street America and those of us who are not spending the money because there is not enough of it. I by no means live an extravegant lifestyle and live within my means, but today that is getting harder and harder to do because the neccesities are getting more and more expensive. Funny how they judge inflation and exclude the everyday costs that effect the middle class American the most. 3% inflation, what a joke, lets add back the everyday costs of energy, fuel, and food and see where we truely are. As for the RV industry, I see a similar pattern to the housing market. A big boom in sales and prices, and the bubble will burst. Maybe this is the year for the bubble to burst.