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Fogbelly 06-08-2021 08:02 PM

A few days ago an RV service advisor told me.....
 
A few days ago an RV service advisor told me that the corporate rep expects the sales frenzy to continue for 2-3 years.

I was astonished......2-3 years? Hard for me to believe.

arcaguy 06-08-2021 08:04 PM

Salespeople tend to run hot or cold and not much in between. I'll believe it when I see it. I'd like to know what the CEO thinks.

Old-Biscuit 06-08-2021 09:25 PM

What does he base it on.?
Hear say
Rumor
Wishful thinking
Hope
Paycheck



I see..............
LOTs and LOTS of slightly USED RVs hitting the market by years end
NEW sales falling off

Massparanoia 06-08-2021 10:01 PM

Since the election virus is over, it’s all gonna depend on economic recovery. If it booms it booms, if it busts it’s gonna crash hard.

DRM901 06-09-2021 01:34 AM

Inflation is starting to creep up. That means interest rates will go up, so discretionary spending, like RVs, will go down.

I do agree the day of reckoning is probably 2 years out. Just takes time for the impact to ripple through the economy.

Toby Dog 06-09-2021 04:44 AM

I'm seeing used 2021s for sale around here already by private sellers. You either love it or not but best to find out on the cheaper used end first.
The media has hyped RVing up beyond reality.

Isaac-1 06-09-2021 12:25 PM

I personally expect to see the RV market crash sooner than later given the way people at least in my area are acting more and more like life as normal every day, seeing people wearing masks is now by far the exception, forget social distancing, people are dining out, staying in motels, etc. The only thing that is not really back to normal yet is international travel and the cruise industry. When those are allowed to go back to normal I suspect we will see some significant promotional rates for cruises and travel packages to try to lure the customers back as soon as possible, though of course some of that infrastructure is gone, cruise ships have been scrapped, resorts shuttered, etc. Combine this with the ever increasing gas prices, lack of camping destinations, etc. and I suspect by the end of the year this boom will be over.

AlanTerry 06-09-2021 12:31 PM

Actually I would like to see the prices climbing. Then you would get more on your rig when ready to sell it.

Old-Biscuit 06-09-2021 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac-1 (Post 5784820)
I personally expect to see the RV market crash sooner than later given the way people at least in my area are acting more and more like life as normal every day, seeing people wearing masks is now by far the exception, forget social distancing, people are dining out, staying in motels, etc. The only thing that is not really back to normal yet is international travel and the cruise industry. When those are allowed to go back to normal I suspect we will see some significant promotional rates for cruises and travel packages to try to lure the customers back as soon as possible, though of course some of that infrastructure is gone, cruise ships have been scrapped, resorts shuttered, etc. Combine this with the ever increasing gas prices, lack of camping destinations, etc. and I suspect by the end of the year this boom will be over.

Air travel over Memorial Weekend was at 75% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

Cruise Ships are Launching again

baraff 06-09-2021 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac-1 (Post 5784820)
The only thing that is not really back to normal yet is international travel and the cruise industry. When those are allowed to go back to normal I suspect we will see some significant promotional rates for cruises and travel packages to try to lure the customers back as soon as possible, though of course some of that infrastructure is gone, cruise ships have been scrapped, resorts shuttered, etc. Combine this with the ever increasing gas prices, lack of camping destinations, etc. and I suspect by the end of the year this boom will be over.


Actually, due to pent-up demand, I think the travel and cruise industry rates will remain high. Have you priced a cruise lately? I've been pricing a cruise for fall of 2022 and it's about 30% higher than it was a year ago.
Most of the cruise ships that were scrapped had no or few balconies, or were very old and were going to be sold off in the next few years anyway. After the Diamond Princess fiasco last year, who wants a cabin with no balcony?
I think the RV craze will continue at least for another year, maybe two.

johninsd 06-09-2021 05:03 PM

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

― Yogi Berra

Boogie_ 06-09-2021 07:35 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fogbelly (Post 5783934)
A few days ago an RV service advisor told me that the corporate rep expects the sales frenzy to continue for 2-3 years.

:rolleyes:

egwilly 06-09-2021 07:54 PM

Peeps that went out on a limb and purchased an RV they probably could not afford will be asking themselves next year "why did we do this"?

Making huge monthly payments on something you use occasionally will grow old fast. The used market will expand. The recession will worsen, and folks will be back at work 40+ hours a week with no time for RV vacations.

That's what my crystal ball showed me today. ;)

Fogbelly 06-09-2021 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by egwilly (Post 5785366)
Peeps that went out on a limb and purchased an RV they probably could not afford will be asking themselves next year "why did we do this"?

Making huge monthly payments on something you use occasionally will grow old fast. The used market will expand. The recession will worsen, and folks will be back at work 40+ hours a week with no time for RV vacations.

That's what my crystal ball showed me today. ;)

I'm inclined to agree.....especially after these newbies realize it's not as glamorous as they thought with all the maintenance and crowded campgrounds.

SKP Kirk 06-10-2021 06:54 AM

Quote:

The latest projection shows total 2021 RV shipments ranging between 565,848 and 586,281 units with the most likely year-end total being 576,065 units. That total would represent a 33.8% increase over the 2020 year-end total of 430,412 units.
RV RoadSigns Quarterly Forecast | RVIA

Marine359 06-10-2021 07:19 AM

I’m no economic genius, I repeat, I’m no economic genius, but:

Prices for new Rvs will not go down. Discounting will increase, which may translate to slightly lower purchase prices when supply and demand are back in balance. We are in a global inflationary spiral. Therefore the cost (not purchase price) of building new Rvs must continue to rise. Manufacturers will suffer as late model RVs start hitting the market. They’ve lived through boom and bust many times, so they will adjust accordingly.

Some parts of the market will become stable because economic cycles have a lesser affect on them. That would be: high end/DP MH (over $200k msrp), full-time 5th wheel (over $50k msrp), and low end TT (under $35k msrp). These are the segments that continued to sell during the last economic downturn. Class B, B+, Class C, and low end gas Class A will suffer the most. That’s the sweet spot for the current boom because many pre-retirement people finance the purchase.

You can bet on it because I’m no economic genius.

dfuelman 06-10-2021 08:56 AM

Have you checked the NADA on your coach lately? Mine has gone up $9K since I purchased it one year ago. It literally is worth more now than what I paid for it. How often does that happen with an RV?

arcaguy 06-10-2021 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by egwilly (Post 5785366)
That's what my crystal ball showed me today. ;)

Crystal balls are good but what did your Magic 8 Ball tell you? That will be the real answer!

egwilly 06-11-2021 08:09 AM

Magic 8 Ball! LOL! You are dating yourself. :laugh:

It did say "maybe"

Spidergawd 06-11-2021 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcaguy (Post 5785861)
Crystal balls are good but what did your Magic 8 Ball tell you? That will be the real answer!

"Ask again later"

hikerjohn66 06-13-2021 03:40 PM

Sales Frenzy Predictons
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fogbelly (Post 5783934)
A few days ago an RV service advisor told me that the corporate rep expects the sales frenzy to continue for 2-3 years.

I was astonished......2-3 years? Hard for me to believe.



I am not sure about claims of a sales frenzy for 2-3 years either. It could just be wishful thinking on the part of the industry.

My observations of RV'ers over the 20 years I have been RV'ing myself is that many people who purchase them discover, after a few uses, that the experience turned out not to be the living or vacationing experience they had envisioned or wanted. So they end up putting their RVs back on the market.

There are a number of reasons. For one, RV'ing is not as easy and trouble free as the salesmen and the glamorous adds might have lead them to believe. That's especially true if they are not handy at fixing things or don't like to pay thousands of dollars to have professionals fix them. RVs are very complex and things on them break a lot. Their reliability is no where near that of their automobiles which they can drive for years with little maintenance.

Also, the campground experience may not be what they expected.
Most are not as luxurious as hotel and motels and it's a lot more work having to pull in and hookup all the stuff at every stop; getting poop on you and tromping around in the dirt.

I suspect that pandemic drove a lot of people to purchase RVs thinking they could avoid crowds in motels, hotels and restaurants and could save a lot on travel. The aggressive RV advertising also is very alluring.

So... I am expecting to see a lot of used RVs showing up on the market as this pandemic winds down over the next year or so from those hapless RV purchasers who found that RV'ing has not turned out to be their style.

kwahl1 06-13-2021 04:26 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Surviving!

Ask Byron 06-13-2021 04:27 PM

I will give you the cat and dog report. As reported on one real estate site I am a member of. Now that Covid has retracted some all the people that acquired shelter animals are now returning them. They are cramping their life style. The shelters are overcrowded now.
Soooo sit back and we will see a glut of RV for sale. These arrogant campground owners that are raising their prices will be giving away free TV's just to get us to camp.

garyb1st 06-13-2021 04:30 PM

If memory serves, before the current boom, many were concerned that because of the Covid RVing would decline. It did the just opposite and with all the new RVers, RVing has lost some of its appeal. At least it did for me. The DW thinks we need to adjust our travel style. Not looking forward to a future where reservations need to be made months ahead of time. Hopefully things will equalize in the coming months and we'll get back to normal.

garywilson 06-13-2021 04:44 PM

My trailer still gets me in areas motels are not available, and you can't beat home cooking vs a restaurant for every meal. And your own toilet?

Since I don't usually use a commercial campground, cost isn't too bad... just the costs of fuel and mileage.

Maybe when a glut in used trailers happens I'll get another one?

lhoover118 06-13-2021 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old-Biscuit (Post 5784046)
What does he base it on.?
Hear say
Rumor
Wishful thinking
Hope
Paycheck



I see..............
LOTs and LOTS of slightly USED RVs hitting the market by years end
NEW sales falling off


Yep, I see the same.

ArtJoyce 06-13-2021 05:58 PM

I have mixed thoughts. Younger families; it seems its a fad. Around here they make the reservations. If there is any rain in the forecast they don't show and don't cancel reservations. They seem to be buying new TT. These are the same generation that are not overly concerned with corvid. They get on the rv forms and buy every thing that people say is a must have.

Then you have the covid campers. Use to do resorts, hotels, and rent time shares. They are buying large MH and 5er. Now its a glamor thing.

Not sure either are ready to give up their camper.

We not only have 100+ new RV builds. But because of the large demand and high prices for campers a large number of the inactive RV have been sold to user that right now are activity using them.

So I think it will be a few years before they will start selling the RV.

I think we will se a lot of people selling their RV's a year after the year they don't take the RV out.

Inflation normally increase in interest rates are hand and hand. But with the treasurer's debt equal to around the GNP of the US. Our current interest on the national debt is very low, but represents 10% of the national budget. I don't think the fed or the treasurer will do any real increases lets say into to 6+%. Maybe plus 1-2%. At 6% interest on the national debt it would represent close 60% of our current budget. So I don't think we will see the interest rate increase.

THenne1713 06-13-2021 06:00 PM

Problem is, climbing prices for same product= INFLATION= $$= worth LESS; the $600-$800 riding mower now $1600-$2000 today, I hate it... and (I am) expecting worse to come.

plane 06-13-2021 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Massparanoia (Post 5784075)
Since the election virus is over, itís all gonna depend on economic recovery. If it booms it booms, if it busts itís gonna crash hard.

I guess I am not as optimistic. There are many factors that I believe may have a negative impact on RV sales and ownership. I think the overall cost is continuing to rise whether it is fuel cost, maintenance cost, camp ground fees as well as inflation and tax increases on the front burner. As interest rates begin to rise which is inevitable at the rate the US is printing money and money gets tighter lets see what happens

PnK 06-13-2021 08:10 PM

That's my thoughts exactly, but I hope it doesn't happen..

Johnynorthla 06-13-2021 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac-1 (Post 5784820)
I personally expect to see the RV market crash sooner than later given the way people at least in my area are acting more and more like life as normal every day, seeing people wearing masks is now by far the exception, forget social distancing, people are dining out, staying in motels, etc. The only thing that is not really back to normal yet is international travel and the cruise industry. When those are allowed to go back to normal I suspect we will see some significant promotional rates for cruises and travel packages to try to lure the customers back as soon as possible, though of course some of that infrastructure is gone, cruise ships have been scrapped, resorts shuttered, etc. Combine this with the ever increasing gas prices, lack of camping destinations, etc. and I suspect by the end of the year this boom will be over.

Iím in your camp! You nailed it! Letís visit back to these post when it happens and see who get the stuffed teddy!

mlpeloquin 06-14-2021 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DRM901 (Post 5784179)
Inflation is starting to creep up. That means interest rates will go up, so discretionary spending, like RVs, will go down.

I do agree the day of reckoning is probably 2 years out. Just takes time for the impact to ripple through the economy.

It is not hard to understand. Paying people to stay home better that than to allow them fill 9.5 million job opening is causing businesses to give raises to keep their current employees from jumping ship to competitors. This causes prices to go up, inflation, to cover the cost. The only people that will not have discretionary money to spend will be retirees with fixed income.

LarryinID 06-14-2021 04:59 PM

Opinions are like anuses (keeping it nice): everybody has one.

Idaho didn’t see the run on RVs of other areas because most people in Idaho already had one. I was fortunate to upgrade Nov of 2019 so even with my propensity to get a new RV every three years I’m good till 2023. Finally got this one where I want it.

I haven’t noticed huge differences in MSRPs or offer prices in my area or national sites. At least not on RVs…have seen on pickups.

My guess is that as soon as alternative travel options are fully back those who bought RVs without understanding maintenance or how to use them will start a flood of used relatively new units. That will restore prices on both used and new. Some people might need one more winter to get some of them to fess up that RVing isn’t for them.

If the reports of RV suppliers having supply chain problems are true that should be letting up soon too…but then they’ll need a few months to restore lost production.

Bottom line prediction: all will be back normal in the RV world by next summer.

I mostly boondock so the hordes haven’t bothered me. And snowbirding was helped by lack of Canadians. But had to put off Alaska trip another year thanks to Canada border closing.

LarryinID 06-14-2021 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PnK (Post 5790413)
That's my thoughts exactly, but I hope it doesn't happen..

No idea what you are referring to. Please use quote.

dssl 06-16-2021 10:20 AM

Salesman are trying to sell
 
Almost all salesman will tell you whatever they think will get you to buy now. Of course they want you to believe that the marketi will stay hot for a long time and therefore you should buy now since thinvgs won't get any better.

David55 06-17-2021 12:47 PM

Big bolus of new coaches bought means big bolus of lightly used, essentially new coaches hitting the used market shortly thereafter as people have health problems or decide they got into something they didn't have time nor inclination for. Getting ready to pounce . . .

Johnynorthla 06-18-2021 06:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David55 (Post 5795246)
Big bolus of new coaches bought means big bolus of lightly used, essentially new coaches hitting the used market shortly thereafter as people have health problems or decide they got into something they didn't have time nor inclination for. Getting ready to pounce . . .



I totally agee with you. I canít see why some are saying that this will not be the case. Reason 1 will be they donít use them as much as they thought they would. Reason 2 is they didnít realize the amount of work, physically and financially that it takes to keep them on the road. Now letís think further on this; once their one year coach warranty expires, they will have to bare that expense, coupled with the fact that it takes 2 months just to get an appointment at a repair shop or dealer, will not sit well with most first timers!

Dav L 06-20-2021 06:11 AM

and why would the opinion of a Service Advisor be of any value one way or another beyond just another opinion?
If that person really had any insight and acted on it, they would own an index fund instead.

fullmoonguru 06-20-2021 08:13 AM

I'm not an RV industry pro but I DO have a fairly good read on human nature. What's about to happen seems fairly obvious to me.

People who bought RV's during covid were either sudden/recent converts, people who were always mildly or seriously interested, and C19 was their excuse to finally act.

The sudden/recent converts will start selling late this summer/fall. Some will be disillusioned between the lifestyle brochures and reality as previously discussed, some will have had a good time and be happy for the experience, but ready to do other things. Most of these people will be selling older used rigs because that's what they bought.

The mildly/seriously interested folks will start selling as well, though at least a few months behind the sudden/recent converts. Though lot's of them will be selling (especially the mildly interested ones), many of these will be transitioning into a different kind/size/vintage RV now that they've had some experience.

Finally there's another group. Some who have been in the game for a while will be looking to get out. Overcrowded campgrounds, difficult service experiences, parts issues, increasing costs, and especially the value of their rigs starting to come down off good highs - good time to get out.

So I see more used inventory coming on around late August & into fall/winter, more in the spring as those who held on decide it's a good time to sell at the beginning of the season, and even more late next summer & fall (probably peaking here) from people who have taken their final trips or have been paying upkeep on something they haven't used in a while.

Unfortunately for us we can't wait for perfect market timeing to purchase a used class A but we'll be watching closely toward the end of August to see what's happening.

DRM901 06-20-2021 03:08 PM

In the economy, everything that goes up, will go down. Everything that goes down, will go up. Economists (and weathermen) are great at predicting the future, just ask them.

Reminds me of the old joke:
Three economists went out skeet shooting.

First one yells pull. Misses the clay pigeon by 3' on the left.

Second one steps up and yells pull. Misses the clay pigeon by 3' on the right.

They all throw down their guns and start yelling: on average, we hit all the targets!

mwberg 06-20-2021 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garyb1st (Post 5790118)
If memory serves, before the current boom, many were concerned that because of the Covid RVing would decline. It did the just opposite and with all the new RVers, RVing has lost some of its appeal. At least it did for me. The DW thinks we need to adjust our travel style. Not looking forward to a future where reservations need to be made months ahead of time. Hopefully things will equalize in the coming months and we'll get back to normal.

After 7 decades I still don't know what normal is.

Jkjavelin 06-22-2021 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mwberg (Post 5799584)
After 7 decades I still don't know what normal is.

^^^The most accurate statement here.

Robert36 06-24-2021 08:05 PM

Long sales forcast !
 
We recently were in three campgrounds that were privately owned and have been sold to large corporations . Something is going on . Saw two campgrounds built brand new, one in Apache Junction AZ, and one in Fredricksburg Tx .

Fogbelly 06-24-2021 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dav L (Post 5798468)
and why would the opinion of a Service Advisor be of any value one way or another beyond just another opinion?
If that person really had any insight and acted on it, they would own an index fund instead.

The service advisor rendered no opinion.


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